jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:40 am
I think it’s been about a month since I posted ‘get ready for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring’
Seems to be going as expected. Get your sprinklers and hoses ready.
Yep. Sprinklers are being engaged today (my rain dance). We're right on the edge of the cap in CLL.
More fertilizer and weed killing first. Then we have some new bushes to plant. And more watering.
It's certainly becoming a more and more common local weather/climate phenom. May and October are historically our wettest months. If the spigot is still off in May, like last year, we have another brutal summer on the way where tropical activity is the main source of rain.
Question for those native to this part of Texas (my stomping grounds are all west…and beyond of I-35) and more knowledgeable.
The Mexican desert has always been there (relatively speaking) but it seems as though its influence on capping here has substantially increased over time based on the comments on much drier springs, etc. Is that a change in the trade winds at the lower and mid levels to more southwesterly, a dryer west Texas, influence of heat islands, or something else?
Genuine question, and don’t want to stir up political debates here.
txbear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:27 am
Question for those native to this part of Texas (my stomping grounds are all west…and beyond of I-35) and more knowledgeable.
The Mexican desert has always been there (relatively speaking) but it seems as though its influence on capping here has substantially increased over time based on the comments on much drier springs, etc. Is that a change in the trade winds at the lower and mid levels to more southwesterly, a dryer west Texas, influence of heat islands, or something else?
Genuine question, and don’t want to stir up political debates here.
The mid level winds are from the SW...so, just look at a map. Chihuahuan desert mid level air would be very dry, especially this time of the year. Ironically, one of our best shots of rain is a dryline moving into and lifting up the humid, low level Gulf air from the SE which is being pumped in.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:24 am
Man. That's the classic setup for us missing totally out right there. Same old crap.
Nah. Rain chances look good. Everyone should get 1-3” with isolated areas getting more.
Yep the rain is coming back.Stay tuned there could be some localized street flooding starting this weekend.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_14.png
I know a lot of people are saying that this spring is going to be dry, but I really don't see this spring being anywhere close to a repeat of last season. The subtropical jet is a lot more active this season and further south which is more typical with El Nino seasons. This displacement results with more dynamic forcing also being placed further south. The correlation between precip and a decaying El Nino in spring is very strong. Last spring was La Nina so there was reason to believe that a dry spring was plausible.
If that SoTX low develops and moves up the coast, then it's a maybe for HOU.
I expect the frontal precip will largely affect the northern and northeastern outskirts of the HGX area - CLL and Piney Woods.
Saturday is your best chance of rain (could be heavy) south of Hwy 1*5.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Stubborn cloud cover is slowly eroding this afternoon as mid-level
shortwaves move northeast of the region. The passing of these
shortwaves aloft and low-level moisture -- thanks to persistent
southerly warm and humid air -- have led to a few light showers
earlier today. As we move into the peak of daytime heating, some
scattered clouds are expected before becoming overcast again this
evening.
A rinse/repeat forecast is anticipated tonight with widespread cloud
cover (low clouds/stratus), patchy fog (some locally dense along the
coast) and off/on light rain/drizzle. Forecast soundings show a
saturated layer up to around 3k-35k ft through the night. In
addition, some isentropic lifting near the 300K layer will take
place. Therefore, have included slight chances of very light
rain/drizzle through early morning.
A surface low pressure will develop on the lee side of the
Rockies/OK Panhandle today and will slide east-northeast into the
Plains through the period. This low will intensify southerly surface
flow over the region ahead of an approaching cold front. In fact, the low-level jet will strengthen and move over SE TX tonight into
Thursday. With that being said, breezy south to southeasterly
surface winds are expected tonight and Thursday, slowly weakening by
Thursday evening as the frontal boundary moves across north-central
TX. Rain and storm chances are expected along and ahead of the
FROPA, particularly over the Brazos Valley by Thursday afternoon.
Models keep suggesting showers/storms developing ahead of the front
during the day. However, the atmosphere remains capped (warm layer
aloft preventing air from rising); thus, any showers developing
ahead of the front will possibly be virga, weak or short-lived.
Conditions become more favorable for showers and isolated storms at
night. A few mid-level vorticity maxes and increasing surface
convergence could result in light rain across most of Southeast TX
Thursday night into Friday.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will continue on Friday.
With moisture advection increasing PWAT values to around 1.5-1.7
inches, a series of mid-upper level disturbances, an approaching
surface front, and an unstable environment, the stage will certainly
be set for a wet and stormy weekend.
A brief summary is that models have continued to come into agreement
and maintain the story of stalling the front further northward near
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region Friday morning. Expect the
front to have little movement during the day Friday into Saturday,
which will keep south to southwesterly winds in place near the
surface and consequently keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
weekend.
Digging a little deeper...For Friday a series of mid to upper level
disturbances embedded within the overall synoptic flow, will work
their way through SE Texas. With plenty of moisture available, the
unstable airmass, and a stalled front, showers and thunderstorms
should not have a difficult time initiating. Friday morning
continues to show a cap in place, but with daytime heating the cap
should erode and allow convection to initiate during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures Friday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s (so pretty warm and muggy).
A decrease in coverage of showers and storms will be possible Friday
night before redeveloping Saturday morning. While the front meanders
over SE Texas, a coastal low over South Texas will work its way NE
into the area through the day. At the 500mb level a series of vort
maxes will pass through, and with PWAT values continuing to reach
into the 1.5-1.8 inch range along with the aforementioned low, PoPs
will remain high. Given the deep level of moisture and the vort
maxes, there will be the potential for some storms to produce
heavier rainfall with minor flooding in low lying or poor drainage
areas. WPC has placed much of SE Texas under a Slight Risk (level 2
of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday and SPC has portions of the
NE CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5). The
main hazards with the severe weather risk will be damaging wind and
hail. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates and have multiple
ways to receive alerts.
Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler with cloud cover
and rain with highs in the 70s.
Continuing on...the front will finally make its way towards the
coast Sunday afternoon and dry air will follow in from behind. Rain
chances will decrease from north to south as the front approaches
the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s. A second front will
bring reinforcing cold air, leading to temperatures dropping into
the 60s area wide Monday and Tuesday
