March 2024
12z NAM has not bought in yet, but tomorrow will tell on the coastal low.
I wish I could say I agree but I just don't see it. I think the persistent drought in Mexico will continue to worsen and contribute to capping issues for SC and SE Texas.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:56 pmI know a lot of people are saying that this spring is going to be dry, but I really don't see this spring being anywhere close to a repeat of last season. The subtropical jet is a lot more active this season and further south which is more typical with El Nino seasons. This displacement results with more dynamic forcing also being placed further south. The correlation between precip and a decaying El Nino in spring is very strong. Last spring was La Nina so there was reason to believe that a dry spring was plausible.
In short, this is the Mexican drought map coming out of an El Nino:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/nadm/hom ... ea.aspx?MX
This is not conducive for a wet Texas pattern combined with a negative PDO.
I hope I am wrong but we'll know come June 1.
We're right on the edge of the cap, mitigating severe weather, but also rain.
The 12z Euro and 12z GFS both have a good amount of rain coming over the next week or two. The rain is coming, it’s just a matter of how much. Friday-Sunday could be a washout.
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Stratton20
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Im already waiting to be disappointed again, it always looks good on the models a few days out, and then it all falls apart, Im keeping expectations to a minimum lol
Also to add - just because get a dousing or two doesn't negate an overall dry spring. I'm talking about the overall pattern for the season. I think we're going to come up short.
On the topic of Mexican drought.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:35 pmI wish I could say I agree but I just don't see it. I think the persistent drought in Mexico will continue to worsen and contribute to capping issues for SC and SE Texas.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:56 pmI know a lot of people are saying that this spring is going to be dry, but I really don't see this spring being anywhere close to a repeat of last season. The subtropical jet is a lot more active this season and further south which is more typical with El Nino seasons. This displacement results with more dynamic forcing also being placed further south. The correlation between precip and a decaying El Nino in spring is very strong. Last spring was La Nina so there was reason to believe that a dry spring was plausible.
In short, this is the Mexican drought map coming out of an El Nino:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/nadm/hom ... ea.aspx?MX
This is not conducive for a wet Texas pattern combined with a negative PDO.
I hope I am wrong but we'll know come June 1.
Mexico City could be just months away from running out of drinking water
https://www.livescience.com/planet-eart ... king-water
Mexico City's water is running due to the drought.
I think it’ll be near average overall with a slight lean towards below average but nothing too crazy.
And here we go. NWS cut rain chances for me in half on Friday and Saturday. Down to 30-40% from 60-70%.
I feel very confident we will see rain this weekend.With localized heavy rain also.
Most of the rain per NAM will be from the coastal low south of Hwy 1*5.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HRRR has a big fat Lucy for us with both the front and coast low.
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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Ill believe it when i see it lol
Let's hope the forecast holds up.
Dang!
