March 2024
Radar was looking good but then poof. Gotta wait till this evening I guess.
Ugh
I just finished installing and planting flower beds in the front of my house last night in League City.
I didn't water yet, as I anticipated rain this morning.
Grumble.
I just finished installing and planting flower beds in the front of my house last night in League City.
I didn't water yet, as I anticipated rain this morning.
Grumble.
Well that went poof. Figures. As usual.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Yep. As predicted today has been a bust so far with storms remaining north and east of us. This evening or Sunday are the best chance now of rain..
The system brought tornadoes and large hail to central Arkansas, north of Hot Springs.
Today and tonight's chances of rain have tanked to 40% and 30%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2kh7KvYrVc
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A potentially active short-term is expected with the approach/pass-
age/stalling of a cold front as well as weak shortwave activity at
the upper levels.
Warm/muggy weather this morning will transition to more warm/muggy
weather this afternoon but with increasing rain chances across our
northern FA (stretching from the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods) [Bust for CLL, but not for piney woods, northern Hill Country]
as the next cold front begins moving into the region. Abundant low
level moisture along with daytime heating(increasing instability)/
favorable shear should lead to the development of thunderstorms a-
long/near the front. Some storms could be strong or severe as they
track into the area from west later this afternoon. But that being
said, SPC has shrunk the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 5) a bit for
our W/NW counties in their Day 1 outlook. However, a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) will remain in place through today/tonight for much
of SE TX. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail.
In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also the threat
for excessive rainfall with this activity later this afternoon and
continuing tonight (and through Sat/Sun). And much like the severe
potential, WPC has trimmed the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 4) for
today/tonight, to only western portions of the CWA. Elsewhere, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) will continue.
With the stalled cold front across SE TX (likely just inland/along
the coast), Sat could be a rather wet day. The potential for heavy
rain and flooding will depend a lot on what happens today/tonight
(to some extent) but conditions do remain favorable for the devel-
opment of additional activity tomorrow and tomorrow night. There`s
still uncertainty with regards to timing/location for the heaviest
rains per the track of the embedded disturbances in the flow aloft
(from around the base of the closed upper low lingering just south
of the Four Corners). WPC has almost all of SE TX in a Slight Risk
for excessive rain for Sat/Sat night. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The wet pattern that will dominate the upcoming weekend is
expected to continue into Sunday as the slowly advancing frontal
boundary continues to push offshore while a developing weak
surface trough along the coast continues to advance towards the
Central Gulf. The midlevel pattern will continue to be
characterized by the passage of several weak shortwaves that
should continue to produce fairly widespread showers and storms.
The slow advance of the boundary should shift the main axis of
rainfall towards the coast, where an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall are possible on Sunday before a shift to northeast winds
behind the departing front will bring a surge of drier air to the
area. While heavy rainfall will ultimately be limited by a lack of
available SB instability, low-level moisture still remains
abundant and some pockets of locally heavy rain will remain
possible closer to the coast. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal
risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and south of the I-10
corridor for the time being. Severe storm development, while again
not impossible, will also be limited by weaker speed shear and
less SB instability compared to previous days.
As the front advances offshore on Monday, a shift to moderate
northeast winds will put a temporary end to the wet pattern as an
influx of drier air brings a return to more seasonable conditions.
Daytime highs on Monday will struggle to eclipse 70, while clear
skies and steady CAA will drive lows into the 40s to low 50s.
Winds taper off on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead
as highs remain in the 60s, with moisture return underway by
Tuesday night as this surface high shifts into the Central Gulf.
Models currently remain in disagreement for the mid-late week
period. GFS shows a more progressive development of the next upper
low/trough, which in its most recent solution will induce a
coastal low by late Wednesday which could bring our next period of
widespread (and possibly heavy) rain. EC solution, on the other
hand, shows a slower and less potent upper low with most of the
associated rainfall occuring on Thursday. Nonetheless, the pattern
as we head into the middle/end of the upcoming week should be
fairly unsettled with increasing rainfall chances.
Cady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A potentially active short-term is expected with the approach/pass-
age/stalling of a cold front as well as weak shortwave activity at
the upper levels.
Warm/muggy weather this morning will transition to more warm/muggy
weather this afternoon but with increasing rain chances across our
northern FA (stretching from the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods) [Bust for CLL, but not for piney woods, northern Hill Country]
as the next cold front begins moving into the region. Abundant low
level moisture along with daytime heating(increasing instability)/
favorable shear should lead to the development of thunderstorms a-
long/near the front. Some storms could be strong or severe as they
track into the area from west later this afternoon. But that being
said, SPC has shrunk the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 5) a bit for
our W/NW counties in their Day 1 outlook. However, a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) will remain in place through today/tonight for much
of SE TX. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail.
In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also the threat
for excessive rainfall with this activity later this afternoon and
continuing tonight (and through Sat/Sun). And much like the severe
potential, WPC has trimmed the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 4) for
today/tonight, to only western portions of the CWA. Elsewhere, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) will continue.
With the stalled cold front across SE TX (likely just inland/along
the coast), Sat could be a rather wet day. The potential for heavy
rain and flooding will depend a lot on what happens today/tonight
(to some extent) but conditions do remain favorable for the devel-
opment of additional activity tomorrow and tomorrow night. There`s
still uncertainty with regards to timing/location for the heaviest
rains per the track of the embedded disturbances in the flow aloft
(from around the base of the closed upper low lingering just south
of the Four Corners). WPC has almost all of SE TX in a Slight Risk
for excessive rain for Sat/Sat night. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The wet pattern that will dominate the upcoming weekend is
expected to continue into Sunday as the slowly advancing frontal
boundary continues to push offshore while a developing weak
surface trough along the coast continues to advance towards the
Central Gulf. The midlevel pattern will continue to be
characterized by the passage of several weak shortwaves that
should continue to produce fairly widespread showers and storms.
The slow advance of the boundary should shift the main axis of
rainfall towards the coast, where an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall are possible on Sunday before a shift to northeast winds
behind the departing front will bring a surge of drier air to the
area. While heavy rainfall will ultimately be limited by a lack of
available SB instability, low-level moisture still remains
abundant and some pockets of locally heavy rain will remain
possible closer to the coast. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal
risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and south of the I-10
corridor for the time being. Severe storm development, while again
not impossible, will also be limited by weaker speed shear and
less SB instability compared to previous days.
As the front advances offshore on Monday, a shift to moderate
northeast winds will put a temporary end to the wet pattern as an
influx of drier air brings a return to more seasonable conditions.
Daytime highs on Monday will struggle to eclipse 70, while clear
skies and steady CAA will drive lows into the 40s to low 50s.
Winds taper off on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead
as highs remain in the 60s, with moisture return underway by
Tuesday night as this surface high shifts into the Central Gulf.
Models currently remain in disagreement for the mid-late week
period. GFS shows a more progressive development of the next upper
low/trough, which in its most recent solution will induce a
coastal low by late Wednesday which could bring our next period of
widespread (and possibly heavy) rain. EC solution, on the other
hand, shows a slower and less potent upper low with most of the
associated rainfall occuring on Thursday. Nonetheless, the pattern
as we head into the middle/end of the upcoming week should be
fairly unsettled with increasing rainfall chances.
Cady
Its my fault. My truck's rear window leaks because of a failed seal in it, and it's being repaired today. If I had left it alone, it would guarantee a flash flood.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Rain chances have gone down here as well, NWS still has a 60-70 chance of rain saturday and sunday here, ill believe it when i see it
I watered yesterday. Usually, that has reverse mojo.
It's sunny and things are greening up 2 weeks early.
My Ambient Weather gauge is currently reading...
https://youtu.be/NkCa49I6_xw?si=cARMdKtyBA34fUIX
It's sunny and things are greening up 2 weeks early.
My Ambient Weather gauge is currently reading...
https://youtu.be/NkCa49I6_xw?si=cARMdKtyBA34fUIX
Patience people.Are y’all looking at the mesoscale models? Models have been pretty consistent that the rain wouldn’t pick up till this evening. May even see a couple of supercells.
Spring fertilizer is going down.
Severe thunderstorm watch coming...
Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 151728Z - 152000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing very large hail (2+
inch) and severe winds are expected across portions of south-central
and southeast Texas this afternoon. A watch will likely be issued in
the next couple hours for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite
imagery indicate an east/west-oriented outflow-modified cold front
gradually stalling across parts of south-central into southeast TX
this afternoon. Given that much of this area is on the backside of a
departing shortwave trough moving east-northeastward across east TX,
overall coverage of storms is a bit uncertain. Nevertheless, as the
frontal circulation intersects a gradually deepening moist layer
amid pockets of diurnal heating, at least isolated to widely
scattered storm development is expected this afternoon -- possibly
aided by weak low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface/cold
pool. An additional focus for storm development will be over the
southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, where the front intersect
the higher terrain amid upslope flow enhancements.
The latest ACARS soundings from San Antonio TX sampled steep
midlevel lapse rates (near 8 C/km) associated with an EML atop a
gradually deepening moist layer extending through 1 km AGL.
Continued diurnal heating of this moist layer should contribute to
moderate/strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). In addition, a
belt of 40-50 kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow above veering
low-level flow will yield 40-50 kt effective shear. This will
support the development of initially semi-discrete supercell
clusters, capable of producing very large hail (some greater than
baseball-sized), along with locally severe winds. While a tornado or
two cannot be entirely ruled out with these storms, low-level shear
will not be particularly strong, and the development of strong cold
pools could reduce the risk to an extent. With time, localized
upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible, with an
increasing wind risk and continued large hail threat with
east-southeastward extent.
..Weinman/Goss.. 03/15/2024
Cumulus bubbling up now. Starting to get that look to it outside plus all the strong wind.
Watch up
- Attachments
-
Cumulus cranking now
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 330 PM CDT.
* At 255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bellville,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Hempstead, Bellville, Pine Island, and Monaville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 2986 9641 2999 9645 3017 9606 2989 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 256DEG 21KT 2996 9635
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
All of that is gonna miss me to the north unless it starts organizing south.