March 2024

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
across Southeast TX today, bringing a drier and cooler airmass from
the northwest. However, the mid to upper levels continue active with
multiple shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow. This
is in response to a longwave upper-trough moving across the Plains.
These passing shortwaves will result in increasing cloud cover and
will also serve as the main focus for isolated light showers and
storms today. Confidence in occurrence and coverage is moderate
given a dry sub-cloud layer where PWATs remain at or below 0.9
inches. The environment looks more favorable for light rain/storms
later this afternoon and evening as moisture increases a bit (PWs up
to 1.0 inches) and convergence strengthens with a passing warm
front. Have continued with 15 to 25 percent of rain/storms
today/this evening with the highest chances across our north-
northwest counties. Skies should gradually scatter out this evening
as forcing aloft moves out of the region. This will result in
another chilly night with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure moves to our east on Thursday, shifting winds
to the south-southeast across the region. Warm and more humid
southerly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The long term continues to feature a building mid/upper ridge and
LL onshore flow on the back side of an eastward progressing sfc
high pressure system. As a result, the Friday to Monday time
frame will feature gradually warming temperatures and rising
humidity. Friday may still feel like spring with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. But by Monday, inland temperatures are expected to
be well into the 80s with 65-70 degree dew points. Couldn`t rule
out a few spots making a run for the 90 degree mark. Coastal
afternoon temps should generally be 5-10 degrees cooler. Pattern
may change by Tuesday as a mid/upper trough approaches from the
west and a cold front from the north. We continue to show some
PoPs on Tuesday as well as some cooler air (70s) in our northern
counties.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Mid to high clouds will be increasing throughout the day. A few
showers will be possible across most terminals mainly after
midday. Isolated storms will also be possible near/at KCLL, KUTS
and KCXO terminals late this afternoon/evening. North to northeast
winds will shift to the west southwest later today. Gusty winds
can be expected this afternoon and/or near any storms. Clouds
will gradually clear overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Light to moderate northeast winds today are expected to weaken by
tonight. On Thursday, winds will veer southeast by the afternoon
and remain southeasterly through early next week. Seas will
gradually decrease today into Thursday. Southeasterly winds are
expected to become moderate to occasionally strong Friday through
the weekend into early next week. By Friday and Saturday, an
increasing southeasterly fetch is forecast to increase swell. The
swell could remain somewhat elevated (4-6 feet) into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 47 75 53 / 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 49 77 54 / 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 59 69 62 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self

[Cpv17]

Uhhh, what’s with this site now?

[oleander]

It's too nice. Makes me want to take my shoes off before entering. I'm not worthy. LOL

[Pas_Bon]

It's too nice. Makes me want to take my shoes off before entering. I'm not worthy. LOL

It has that new website smell.

[DoctorMu]

Fresh. Clean. It must be opening day for MLB! Even the Cubs can't blow it today...at least until 6:35 pm tonight when they play the World Champion Texas Rangers.

[Stratton20]

I had to refresh the page because I thought it was a different site

[cperk]

I like this new website.

[jasons2k]

Love this PHP update.

Love this weather.

Hope everyone has a wonderful Easter Weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Awesome new Platform! Enjoy folks and thanks for your patience!

[don]

I love the changes!

FYI It's far out but I'm watching the 2nd week of April for the possibility of a significant cutoff low in the southwest/southern plains.Combined with an active subtropical jet, such a setup could lead to a multi day severe weather & heavy rain threat in the plains.Still far out so nothing to worry about at the moment though,just something to watch.

gfs_z500a_us_45.png (135.01 KiB) Viewed 1969 times

[Cpv17]

This is gonna take some getting used to for me lol

[DoctorMu]

I love the changes!

FYI It's far out but I'm watching the 2nd week of April for the possibility of a significant cutoff low in the southwest/southern plains.Combined with an active subtropical jet, such a setup could lead to a multi day severe weather & heavy rain threat in the plains.Still far out so nothing to worry about at the moment though,just something to watch.


gfs_z500a_us_45.png

Concerned about blockage of the once in a generation solar eclipse. We'll have plenty of time for Lucy later.

shorter term, this weekend will become increasingly warmer and humid with return flow. A cold front follows early next seek, but there is only a low % prog of rain.

[Cpv17]

We don’t need any rain. We need at least two more weeks of dry weather. Well, most of us anyway.

[Rip76]

This is way too fancy.
Well done.

[Stratton20]

Im going to have to reject that model post above, i could use a good 2-3 weeks of drier weather, plus the eclipse is coming, we certainly dont need any more rain anytime soon

[don]

Don't shoot the messenger LOL . I didn't say i wanted it to rain just saying the long range signal i see in the models.Doesn't mean its going to verify its still far out.

[Cromagnum]

What a fancy new webpage!

[Cromagnum]

I guess we'll see, but the hyperbole about hurricane season continues for now.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... tent=kprc2

[Andrew]

I am happy to hear most of the feedback has been positive about the changes!

Happy Easter to everyone, it looks to remain warm tomorrow before a cold front moves in early next week. Some severe weather for the Southern Plains but capping is expected to remain strong down here . Not too long until Hurricane season gets going again

[tireman4]

Happy Easter to you all!!!