April 2024

[Stratton20]

The forecast will bust, we will get some views of the eclipse, ill take my statement to the bank lol

[Cpv17]

As of right now it’s looking like most of the rain for next week will stay north and east of us. Not sure what the CPC is seeing.

[don]

Still far out but I'm watching Tuesday and especially Wednesday of next week for the possibility of a severe weather event locally and east of here. As there are PDS soundings already showing up in the models. As a vigorous impulse moves in along the subtropical jet there looks to be a MCS that will move in Wednesday with precipitable waters nearing 2 inches locally heavy rain is also a possibility.

prateptype_cat-imp.us_sc.png (225.91 KiB) Viewed 655 times

[don]

Cap ture.PNG (58.21 KiB) Viewed 645 times

This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the
south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through
the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over
the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely
location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in
parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large
cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley
Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer
shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells
embedded in the MCS.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 040837
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024

Nice wx will continue for the remainder of the work week. Surface
high pressure taking shape over the northwest Gulf will provide a
warmer swly llvl flow today which will allow for warmer daytime
highs than what we saw yesterday. As this high makes its way a bit
further east Friday and Friday night, we`ll transition to a more sse
flow. Dewpoints will slowly begin an upward climb and we`ll see a
gradual bump in humidities and warmer overnight lows. Still not
enough column moisture for any rain...but there looks to be good
opportunities for that in the extended portion of the fcst.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024

An upper level trough is expected to fill across the Great
Basin/Central Plains on Saturday. It`s associated surface low
over the Central Plains/Rockies should tighten the pressure
gradient, with gusty winds developing across SE Texas as a 30-40
knot LLJ forms overhead. Rising cloud cover will limit afternoon
heating, keeping highs for the day in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
PWs rise a tad above 1.0 inch overnight as the southern flank of
the cold front associated with this system approaches SE Texas.
This system is progged to bring a line of scattered/isolated
showers and storms as it enters SE Texas during the early morning
hours of Sunday. Lows for Sunday morning are expected to be in the
60s.

The consensus between models still indicate that the front will
stall out near SE Texas (around the Brazos Valley based on current
guidance), with rising PWs of 1.2-1.6 inches allowing for rain
chances to continue into the beginning of next week. Long range
guidance shows the frontal boundary drifting northward on Monday
as another upper level trough digs into the desert Southwest.
Rising instability ahead of this approaching trough may bring a
few stronger/more potent storms early in the week. The second
upper level disturbance looks to spin up another surface low over
the Central/Southern Plains, eventually draping another front
across Texas later in the week. Before this second front`s
arrival, PWs are progged to reach 1.5-1.9 inches on Tuesday as the
aforementioned upper level trough digs into Western Texas. This
should bring more widespread showers/storms through Wednesday,
with forecast soundings suggesting deep saturation sufficient for
higher rainfall totals during this period of the forecast. In
whole, wetter conditions can be expected over the weekend into mid
next week at least.

.2024 Solar Eclipse...

On April 8th (Monday), a Total Solar Eclipse is expected to occur
over portions of the South-Central to Northeastern CONUS. Over
Southeast Texas/Houston, the eclipse should begin around 12:20 PM.
The partial eclipse will reach it`s peak around 1:40 PM, with the
Moon blocking 94% of the Sun. The eclipse will end around 3:00 PM.
Those attempting to view the eclipse should wear solar glasses [must
be ISO 12312-2 compliant] and use proper solar filters with any
cameras, binocular or telescopes.

Cloud cover still looks unfavorable for SE Texas with the
eclipse. Deterministic NBM shows total cloud cover ranging from
70-80% across all of SE Texas on the day of the eclipse. When
looking at NBM probabilities, 99% of members indicate that a large
swath of SE Texas will see mostly cloudy skies (or in this case,
total sky cover > 65%). Long-range forecast soundings show saturation
around 900-950mb and 500-300mb, indicating the presence of
low/high clouds at the time of the eclipse. Despite this, it may
still be possible to view the partial eclipse with any breaks in
the lower cloud deck.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024

VFR for the next 30+ hours.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024

Onshore flow is expected to return later today as surface high
pressure moves through the northwestern Gulf. Lighter winds and
calmer seas should continue through Friday. Onshore flow should
strengthen into Saturday, likely warranting caution flags and
potentially even Small Craft Advisories as a cold front approaches
SE Texas. This cold front looks to stall out inland, with winds
and seas relaxing slightly on Sunday. Onshore winds of 10 to 20
kts and seas of 3 to 6 ft may warrant caution flags into the
beginning of next week. Rain chances return on Sunday with
scattered showers/storms possible through mid next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 54 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 66 76 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

[Cpv17]

Cap ture.PNG

This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the
south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through
the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over
the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely
location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in
parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large
cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley
Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer
shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells
embedded in the MCS.

Still not seeing much of a chance of rain/storms south of I-10. At least not yet anyway. But it has trended further S since yesterday. The WPC 7 day forecast doesn’t have much rain for southeast Texas. It’s mainly in LA.

[mcheer23]

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

[DoctorMu]

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

[mcheer23]

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

ACE of 210....

[Cromagnum]

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

Am I misremembering or wasnt 2023 suppose to be crazy too?

[mcheer23]

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

Am I misremembering or wasnt 2023 suppose to be crazy too?

2023 was forecast to be "near normal"...Colorado State had an April forecast of 13/6/2 last year

[tireman4]

Forecast for Hurricane Activity 2024

[don]

Cap ture.PNG

This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the
south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through
the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over
the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely
location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in
parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large
cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley
Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer
shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells
embedded in the MCS.

Still not seeing much of a chance of rain/storms south of I-10. At least not yet anyway. But it has trended further S since yesterday. The WPC 7 day forecast doesn’t have much rain for southeast Texas. It’s mainly in LA.

I'm more concerned about severe weather than I am of heavy rain at the moment. High QPF does not necessarily correlate with the area of severe weather.( I am expecting to see a couple of inches of rain though with the MCS Wednesday.)

[DoctorMu]

Forecast for Hurricane Activity 2024

115 days - named stored days. That's 3.5+ months of nearly continuous action. Crazy. The GoM could be wide open for business.

[don]

spcd5prob.us_sc.png (270.98 KiB) Viewed 355 times

spcd6prob.us_sc.png (276.86 KiB) Viewed 355 times

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an
upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is
forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday
and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period,
mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches,
low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains,
and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place
from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This
will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from
Monday afternoon to Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is
forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front,
low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas
eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF
and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across
the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that
instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051103
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Southwesterly flow and sunny skies will contribute to warmer
temperatures today as highs reach into the 80s. Partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

High pressure aloft will continue off to the east while a tightening
pressure gradient at the surface will lead to strengthening onshore
winds, courtesy of a low pressure system approaching from the
Rockies. This onshore flow will bring an increase in moisture, and
with warm temperatures in place, Saturday should feel a bit on the
muggy side. Increasing cloud cover will keep highs a touch cooler on
Saturday. Lows for Saturday night will be in the 60s to near 70
degrees.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Sunday: A decaying surface frontal boundary (associated with a slow
nne moving upper trof situated across the northern Plains &
Midwest) will try its best to sneak into northern parts of the
area then stall. Combination of daytime heating, pooling moisture
in advance, and possibly a seabreeze will provide some isolated-
scattered shra/tsra across parts of the area.

Monday & Monday night: Frontal boundary will retreat back to the
north. With falling pressures to the west, onshore flow will ramp
back up and drive a deeper surge of PW`s from the Gulf into the
area. At the same time, a messier sw flow aloft takes shape and
we`ll probably see some higher end scattered shra/tstm coverage
emerge as the day progresses. Can`t rule out some isolated
stronger cells across n/ne parts of the CWA if things line up just
right and a possible MCS emerges just to our north...but too
early to pinpoint. Needless to say, with the increased moisture
and cloudiness...am not very optimistic for the eclipse viewing
in the local area.

Tuesday: A continued messy sw flow aloft with a series of disturbances
embedded in the mid level flow in advance of the next western
trof situated over NM and northern Mexico. Various model blends
and deterministic guidance indicates the potential for continued
periods of sct shra/tstms with higher probabilities north of I-10.

Tuesday Night & Wednesday: Synoptic-wise looks to be the best time
period for more significant shra/tstm coverage and potential for
some strong storms and/or localized heavy rain. This is when we`ll
see increasing larger scale lift as the upper trof approaches
from the west, sufficient PW`s and instability in place, and some
broad diffluence aloft.

Late Wednesday thru Thursday: Appears we`ll get dry slotted at
some point later in the day Wed followed by a cold frontal
passage. Precip should mostly come to an end, but we might see
some wrap around cloud cover post fropa. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

VFR conditions expected today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies. Winds will generally be light out of the SW, becoming S to
SE tonight through overnight hours. CLoud cover will gradually
increase later today into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Look for increasing southerly winds tonight and Saturday along
with a corresponding increase in seas. Might need some
caution/advsy flags at some point, esp in the waters west of
Freeport. Winds will diminish on Sunday as a weak frontal
boundary approaches southeast Texas then stalls well inland. A
long fetch of moderate onshore winds and elevated seas then sets
up across the Gulf early next week in advance of the next weather
system that will be moving into the region on Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 58 82 65 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 62 83 68 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 67 75 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

[Cpv17]

spcd5prob.us_sc.png


spcd6prob.us_sc.png

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an
upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is
forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday
and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period,
mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches,
low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains,
and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place
from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This
will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from
Monday afternoon to Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is
forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front,
low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas
eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF
and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across
the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that
instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

An extremely rare risk day this far out for where I live. Might only see that once or twice a year for my area. It’s been years since I’ve experienced a legit storm though.

[jasons2k]

A lot of us got nailed in June of last year. Lots of wind damage. I was just thinking about that storm yesterday.

Almost like summer this afternoon.

[Cpv17]

A lot of us got nailed in June of last year. Lots of wind damage. I was just thinking about that storm yesterday.

Almost like summer this afternoon.

I can’t even tell you the last time I saw winds at my place over 50mph or hail bigger than a marble. Been several years. We’ve been lucky.

[Pas_Bon]

I've got a really foreboding sense of some bad *&^* this hurricane season. Ugh.. November cannot get here soon enough. Lol