April 2024

[Cromagnum]

Still looking nasty for us this evening?
Dixie Alley primed to get smacked hard tomorrow.

The 12z HRRR is running now. The 6z looked less threatening for folks south of I-10.

Remind me what 12z translates to for our time zone?

[tireman4]

Still looking nasty for us this evening?
Dixie Alley primed to get smacked hard tomorrow.

The 12z HRRR is running now. The 6z looked less threatening for folks south of I-10.

Remind me what 12z translates to for our time zone?

A better way to quickly decode model times is thinking of 12Z as morning run of the model and the 0Z as an evening run, with 18Z as midday and 06Z as the overnight run. These conversions work for all other fields that use global time, though most use "UTC" instead of "Z."

[Cpv17]

I think it’s a 6 hour difference for zulu time. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. Zulu time can be confusing.

[DavidH]

I believe it is -6 hours when we're on Standard Time & -5 hours when we're on Daylight Time.

[Houstonkid]

Question, with half of the CWA being in Enhanced outlook, why is there no severe wording in the HGX forecasts for any of it's counties?

[tireman4]

Severe Weather Potential

[Cpv17]

If you live south of 59 and I-10, decent chance you might not get anything.

[Cromagnum]

That's a big hail threat area.

[Cpv17]

I’m thinking as we progress later into spring, we’ll have a better chance at these systems moving further south.

[tireman4]

I’m thinking as we progress later into spring, we’ll have a better chance at these systems moving further south.

One word of caution, situations change as dynamics in the atmosphere flexes its movements, as it were. I would be weather aware, anywhere you are.

[tireman4]

Severe Weather Potential

[Canebo]

If you live south of 59 and I-10, decent chance you might not get anything.

Should nickname the area between Houston and Galveston "Dry Gulch!" Galveston and areas north of here have received far more rain the last few years. We get a system or 2 that holds together, but usually just an occasional pop up shower. Whatever pattern we are in that causes this needs to change before another summer of ridiculous water bills dangit!

[tireman4]

Winds near the coast...

[mcheer23]

New Day 1 SPC outlook extends the hatched area for hail further south.

[Cpv17]

New Day 1 SPC outlook extends the hatched area for hail further south.

Gonna be interesting to see how far south that line will develop early tomorrow morning. You’d think it would be more of a wind threat than hail since it looks to be a squall line.

[Stratton20]

I bet most of the action will stay to the north like yesterday as the mesocales agree with this idea, im not overly concerned today, maybes tuesday morning could be the time to watch, but overall today should be quiet here locally, central and north texas are a different story though

[Cpv17]

I bet most of the action will stay to the north like yesterday as the mesocales agree with this idea, im not overly concerned today, maybes tuesday morning could be the time to watch, but overall today should be quiet here locally, central and north texas are a different story though

Yes, the action isn’t going to really get going till early tomorrow morning for most of us. That has pretty much always been the case. Nothing today but a lot of yucky humidity and gusty annoying winds.

[don]

I bet most of the action will stay to the north like yesterday as the mesocales agree with this idea, im not overly concerned today, maybes tuesday morning could be the time to watch, but overall today should be quiet here locally, central and north texas are a different story though

Yep the enhance risk locally was always for late tonight/overnight. The daytime today should be quite.

[don]

New Day 1 SPC outlook extends the hatched area for hail further south.

Gonna be interesting to see how far south that line will develop early tomorrow morning. You’d think it would be more of a wind threat than hail since it looks to be a squall line.

In the latest update they did add a hatched area to the wind probabilities.

spcd1wind.us_sc.png (308.59 KiB) Viewed 348 times

spcd1hail.us_sc.png (332.04 KiB) Viewed 348 times

spcd1tor.us_sc.png (297.19 KiB) Viewed 348 times

[don]

Screenshot 2024-04-09 at 13-38-37 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (624.15 KiB) Viewed 293 times

Screenshot 2024-04-09 at 13-38-52 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (623.88 KiB) Viewed 293 times