We have a lemon out in the far Atlantic. On April 24th.
No, this will not be a retired storm. No, it will not affect any landmass that I can foresee. Yes, this is immensely concerning. Have we had April/May areas of interest before? Yes. Have we had named storms in April/May before? Yes. Have they come along with such a heightened worry about the upcoming season? Not to my recollection.
The fact we have a system organized enough to warrant watching at this point is yet another red flag vis a vis the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Godspeed to us all these next several months.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
Another busy forecast is out:
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-t ... prediction
I think it will be an extremely busy season.
FWIW these are my preliminary numbers on the Storm2k poll:
Prelim: 27/16/7 Ace: 223
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-t ... prediction
I think it will be an extremely busy season.
FWIW these are my preliminary numbers on the Storm2k poll:
Prelim: 27/16/7 Ace: 223
Here is the latest run of the monthly CanSIPS model for July and August.
Steering for July:
August:
SST’s for July:
August:
Precipitation for July:
August:
After mid September we should be about done but getting there could be a bumpy ride.
I also wanted to point out how dry the EPAC appears to be. You know it’s going to be active in the Atlantic basin when the EPAC is that dry.
Steering for July:
August:
SST’s for July:
August:
Precipitation for July:
August:
After mid September we should be about done but getting there could be a bumpy ride.
I also wanted to point out how dry the EPAC appears to be. You know it’s going to be active in the Atlantic basin when the EPAC is that dry.
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Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure
I think July is going to be more active this year. It’s usually dead but August is really gonna be a month we’re gonna have to watch.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2024 3:20 pm Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure
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