2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Pas_Bon]

We have a lemon out in the far Atlantic. On April 24th.

No, this will not be a retired storm. No, it will not affect any landmass that I can foresee. Yes, this is immensely concerning. Have we had April/May areas of interest before? Yes. Have we had named storms in April/May before? Yes. Have they come along with such a heightened worry about the upcoming season? Not to my recollection.

The fact we have a system organized enough to warrant watching at this point is yet another red flag vis a vis the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Godspeed to us all these next several months.

[jasons2k]

Another busy forecast is out:
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-t ... prediction

I think it will be an extremely busy season.

FWIW these are my preliminary numbers on the Storm2k poll:

Prelim: 27/16/7 Ace: 223

[tireman4]

SSTs

[Cpv17]

Here is the latest run of the monthly CanSIPS model for July and August.

Steering for July:



August:



SST’s for July:



August:



Precipitation for July:



August:




After mid September we should be about done but getting there could be a bumpy ride.

I also wanted to point out how dry the EPAC appears to be. You know it’s going to be active in the Atlantic basin when the EPAC is that dry.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure

I think July is going to be more active this year. It’s usually dead but August is really gonna be a month we’re gonna have to watch.