April 2024
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4521
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
31
FXUS64 KHGX 302043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Isolated storms have developed near the coast/over the Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of SE Texas remains dry
with benign conditions expected through the end of the day. Patchy
fog will be possible overnight, potentially becoming dense at times
during the early morning hours of Wednesday, with fog chances
greatest in areas east of I-45. Fog development will vary greatly
depending how the lower stratus deck behaves during this overnight
period. Ample moisture and cloudy skies should bring lows for
Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
On Wednesday, an upper level trough will dig into the Northern Great
Basin, spinning up another surface low over the Rockies. This will
tighten the pressure gradient, strengthening onshore flow and
increasing moisture advection. A plume of 1.75-2.00"+ PWs fills in
from southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours. Weak
impulses aloft coinciding with this moisture influx may bring
isolated to scattered storms across the area during the daytime
hours. Shower/storm activity briefly diminishes late in the
afternoon/early evening as diurnal heating and instability decreases.
A shortwave trough is expected to sweep across Central Texas
Wednesday night, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms
overnight into Thursday morning. With support from the shortwave,
plentiful moisture, modest instability and support from a 30-35 knot
LLJ, some of these storms will capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. WPC has portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area
under a Slight (Level 2/4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday
night/early Thursday, with a marginal (level 1/4) risk extending
further south to around the I-10 corridor. These areas have
experienced recent heavy rainfall & flooding, with CREST showing
swaths of 40-68% soil moisture north of Conroe. 1Hr FFG for these
locations range from 2-3", so Flash Flooding may develop rather
quickly if any stronger storms were to move over these areas,
especially over Trinity & Walker counties.
The threat of flooding continues into the long term with the arrival
of additional rainfall & downstream flow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Continued thunderstorm activity will press on into the early part
of Thursday, thanks to robust moisture availability and the
passage of a midlevel shortwave trough. While recent global model
runs continue to show the QPF max just to the northeast of the
area, this could nonetheless result in an additional 2-3 inches of
rainfall across portions of Brazos, Madison, Houston, and Trinity
Counties through late Thursday. Rainfall totals across the
Northern Houston Metro area during this time could reach as high
as 1-1.5 in, while areas along and south of the I-10 corridor
should generally remain at 0.25 in or below. Some locally higher
totals are possible, though greater clarity regarding the extent
and timing of this potential is expected tomorrow as this period
enters the time range of high resolution forecast models.
Additionally, rainfall both over the area and upstream may further
exacerbate ongoing flooding along area rivers and creeks,
particularly across the San Jacinto and Trinity river basins (see
Hydrology section below).
Some additional weak shortwave activity embedded within
an otherwise mostly zonal midlevel flow will continue to result
in rainfall chances through the end of the week, although the
potential for heavier rainfall as we expect late Wednesday into
Thursday will be lower. Despite this, a persistent onshore flow
regime will continue to contribute to elevated moisture levels
which will continue to support the development of scattered
thunderstorms. Some additional lighter rain totals of up to an
inch are possible through Saturday, with the greatest rainfall
chances remaining north of the I-10 corridor.
Drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend as a
midlevel ridge builds over the area while a surface frontal
boundary stalls to our north. This will be accompanied by a
warming trend, with temperatures rising gradually into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week. By Monday, most locations will
border on the 90 mark with even higher temperatures possible on
Tuesday. With this being an early season heat event and high
moisture levels still in place, heat safety precautions may need
to be taken. Early indications show max WBGT values of 81-83 on
Monday and 82-85 on Tuesday.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will prevail this
afternoon through this evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs and patchy fog
should develop overnight/early Wednesday morning. Fog clears out
shortly after sunrise with CIGs improving during the day. Isolated
showers may begin to pop up across portions of SE Texas Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Persistent moderate onshore winds are expected through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with wind speeds at
times occasionally bordering on Advisory thresholds. Periods of
showers and storms are possible during the course of the rest of
the week, particularly on Thursday. However, the bulk of the rain
should remain inland. Rain chances diminish heading into the
weekend, with onshore flow remaining in place.
Cady
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding along area rivers, particularly the Trinity and
San Jacinto, continues to persist. The following river points
continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this afternoon:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Moderate Flood
Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Action Stage, rising to Major Flood
Stage
- San Jacinto (Cleveland): Moderate Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in prolonged and potentially further
exacerbated river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from
your local officials and to never travel through flooded roadways. Please
monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new
NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 85 71 84 / 0 30 40 60
Houston (IAH) 70 84 74 85 / 10 30 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 81 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 302043
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Isolated storms have developed near the coast/over the Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of SE Texas remains dry
with benign conditions expected through the end of the day. Patchy
fog will be possible overnight, potentially becoming dense at times
during the early morning hours of Wednesday, with fog chances
greatest in areas east of I-45. Fog development will vary greatly
depending how the lower stratus deck behaves during this overnight
period. Ample moisture and cloudy skies should bring lows for
Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
On Wednesday, an upper level trough will dig into the Northern Great
Basin, spinning up another surface low over the Rockies. This will
tighten the pressure gradient, strengthening onshore flow and
increasing moisture advection. A plume of 1.75-2.00"+ PWs fills in
from southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours. Weak
impulses aloft coinciding with this moisture influx may bring
isolated to scattered storms across the area during the daytime
hours. Shower/storm activity briefly diminishes late in the
afternoon/early evening as diurnal heating and instability decreases.
A shortwave trough is expected to sweep across Central Texas
Wednesday night, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms
overnight into Thursday morning. With support from the shortwave,
plentiful moisture, modest instability and support from a 30-35 knot
LLJ, some of these storms will capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. WPC has portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area
under a Slight (Level 2/4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday
night/early Thursday, with a marginal (level 1/4) risk extending
further south to around the I-10 corridor. These areas have
experienced recent heavy rainfall & flooding, with CREST showing
swaths of 40-68% soil moisture north of Conroe. 1Hr FFG for these
locations range from 2-3", so Flash Flooding may develop rather
quickly if any stronger storms were to move over these areas,
especially over Trinity & Walker counties.
The threat of flooding continues into the long term with the arrival
of additional rainfall & downstream flow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Continued thunderstorm activity will press on into the early part
of Thursday, thanks to robust moisture availability and the
passage of a midlevel shortwave trough. While recent global model
runs continue to show the QPF max just to the northeast of the
area, this could nonetheless result in an additional 2-3 inches of
rainfall across portions of Brazos, Madison, Houston, and Trinity
Counties through late Thursday. Rainfall totals across the
Northern Houston Metro area during this time could reach as high
as 1-1.5 in, while areas along and south of the I-10 corridor
should generally remain at 0.25 in or below. Some locally higher
totals are possible, though greater clarity regarding the extent
and timing of this potential is expected tomorrow as this period
enters the time range of high resolution forecast models.
Additionally, rainfall both over the area and upstream may further
exacerbate ongoing flooding along area rivers and creeks,
particularly across the San Jacinto and Trinity river basins (see
Hydrology section below).
Some additional weak shortwave activity embedded within
an otherwise mostly zonal midlevel flow will continue to result
in rainfall chances through the end of the week, although the
potential for heavier rainfall as we expect late Wednesday into
Thursday will be lower. Despite this, a persistent onshore flow
regime will continue to contribute to elevated moisture levels
which will continue to support the development of scattered
thunderstorms. Some additional lighter rain totals of up to an
inch are possible through Saturday, with the greatest rainfall
chances remaining north of the I-10 corridor.
Drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend as a
midlevel ridge builds over the area while a surface frontal
boundary stalls to our north. This will be accompanied by a
warming trend, with temperatures rising gradually into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week. By Monday, most locations will
border on the 90 mark with even higher temperatures possible on
Tuesday. With this being an early season heat event and high
moisture levels still in place, heat safety precautions may need
to be taken. Early indications show max WBGT values of 81-83 on
Monday and 82-85 on Tuesday.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will prevail this
afternoon through this evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs and patchy fog
should develop overnight/early Wednesday morning. Fog clears out
shortly after sunrise with CIGs improving during the day. Isolated
showers may begin to pop up across portions of SE Texas Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Persistent moderate onshore winds are expected through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with wind speeds at
times occasionally bordering on Advisory thresholds. Periods of
showers and storms are possible during the course of the rest of
the week, particularly on Thursday. However, the bulk of the rain
should remain inland. Rain chances diminish heading into the
weekend, with onshore flow remaining in place.
Cady
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding along area rivers, particularly the Trinity and
San Jacinto, continues to persist. The following river points
continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this afternoon:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Moderate Flood
Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Major Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Action Stage, rising to Major Flood
Stage
- San Jacinto (Cleveland): Moderate Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in prolonged and potentially further
exacerbated river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from
your local officials and to never travel through flooded roadways. Please
monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new
NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 85 71 84 / 0 30 40 60
Houston (IAH) 70 84 74 85 / 10 30 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 81 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady
Looks like the same places that got rain a couple days ago are gonna get it again tomorrow night into early Thursday.
Massive wedge just north of Wichita Falls.. wow! Crazy hook on radar and a very crazy storm motion.
The mesoscale models are beginning to look very interesting.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4521
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
196
FXUS64 KHGX 011155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Active weather pattern returns today and Thursday with periods of
showers and thunderstorms, especially during the overnight hours
through Thursday.
In the near term, stratus and patchy fog will continue to develop
across portions of SE TX early this morning. Fog is not expected to
be as widespread as yesterday, and is expected to burn early this
morning. Low clouds/stratus, on the other hand, will continue
through the day, with just some improvement in the afternoon.
Increasing warm air advection, and daytime heating will help to
spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
morning into the afternoon hours.
The primary concerns in the short term portion of the forecast
revolve around excessive rainfall and convection risks this evening
into Thursday. Model guidance continues to support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms developing across north central Texas and
into Southeast TX later today as a strong upper-level trough moves
through on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. West to southwest flow
aloft, strong forcing and instability and 0-6 km bulk shear around
25-40 knots will support strong updrafts with these storms. There is
a moderate to high probability that this activity will initiate with
a supercellular development to our west, eventually evolving into a
linear MCS as storms move over our forecast area. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
This system is progged to be progressive; but latest trends continue
to show excessive rainfall over areas where recently had significant
rainfall/flooding. For this reason, WPC placed us under a Moderate
Risk (level 3 of 4) and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)of excessive
rainfall today/tonight in their Day 1 Outlook and in a Slight Risk
in their Day 2 (Thursday). Most of this activity is progged to be
north of I-10. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be
expected north of I-10, with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 8
inches possible. Up to an inch of rain will be possible for areas
south of I-10 (lower amounts towards the coast). The greatest threat
of heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms should gradually
diminish on Thursday during the day.
A Flood Watch has been issued generally for counties north of the
Houston metro area from late this evening through Thursday evening.
Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take
action should flooding develop.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Several mid to upper level disturbances embedded in the
quasi zonal flow aloft will continue to move over the region
through early this weekend. During the early morning hours on
Friday, another pulse of low level moisture will move in from the
Gulf waters maintaining PWs between 1.5 to 1.8 inches, in
particular over the Piney Woods region. In addition, there`s the
indication of mid level vort maxes moving over the northern half
of Southeast Texas on Friday. Another thing to note is that
although the low level jet is at its strongest on Thursday, it may
still be present on Friday. Based on this set up, confidence of
seeing a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday is
increasing. For now, the best chances for showers and storms
would be Friday morning into early afternoon. Models show very dry
air along the mid levels moving into the region in the afternoon
and could help suppress some of the rainfall, however, good
instability and low level moisture remains throughout the day and
could combine with the vort maxes to help maintain isolated to
scattered storms over portions of Southeast Texas through late
afternoon or early evening. A lull in activity can be expected
Friday night and Saturday morning, although we will need to keep
an eye on a few more vort maxes that are to pass through Saturday
morning. On Saturday afternoon, another round of storms look to
develop mainly over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region,
where moisture and instability remains highest. There will be some
capping in place, thus, hopefully PoPs may not be as high as they
are currently forecasted (~30-50%).
One important thing to note is that the higher PoPs are once
again located along and east of I-45 and north of I-10. With the
expected rainfall to occur today and Thursday (in particularly
over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region) along with the
potential for localized flash flooding and river flooding, the
additional rainfall on Friday and Saturday could aggravate the
situation even more. Remember, rivers can see water levels
increasing several hours to days after the main rainfall event.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast and have multiple
ways to receive warnings.
By early next week, fairly tranquil conditions can be expected as
mid to upper level riding dominates the local weather pattern. This
will result in dry but warmer conditions with highs reaching the
upper 80s to low 90s early next week (some locations may reach
the mid 90s). PWs will range between 1.4 to 1.8 inches and with
dewpoints mainly in the low 70s, conditions will feel even warmer
as well as muggy.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
MVFR to occasional IFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus will
continue to develop and surge northward during the day. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible with the best
chances overnight. Gusty erratic winds and reduced visibility can
be expected with any strong storm. Southeasterly winds will
strength this afternoon around 10 to 15 knots.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Moderate onshore winds are expected through much of the forecast
period. Winds may flirt with Advisory levels on Thursday. Seas
will generally range between 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters
and 2 to 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Also, strong rip
currents could occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next
few days. Periods of showers and storms can be expected through
the end of the work week.
24
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
River flooding continues, particularly along portions of the
Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points
continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this morning:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
Flood Stage today
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Minor Flood
Stage today
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged
river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your
local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or
roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)
as the river flood threat continues.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 70 83 72 / 40 70 60 30
Houston (IAH) 84 72 84 72 / 30 40 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 80 73 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
with gusts TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-300.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24
FXUS64 KHGX 011155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Active weather pattern returns today and Thursday with periods of
showers and thunderstorms, especially during the overnight hours
through Thursday.
In the near term, stratus and patchy fog will continue to develop
across portions of SE TX early this morning. Fog is not expected to
be as widespread as yesterday, and is expected to burn early this
morning. Low clouds/stratus, on the other hand, will continue
through the day, with just some improvement in the afternoon.
Increasing warm air advection, and daytime heating will help to
spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this
morning into the afternoon hours.
The primary concerns in the short term portion of the forecast
revolve around excessive rainfall and convection risks this evening
into Thursday. Model guidance continues to support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms developing across north central Texas and
into Southeast TX later today as a strong upper-level trough moves
through on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. West to southwest flow
aloft, strong forcing and instability and 0-6 km bulk shear around
25-40 knots will support strong updrafts with these storms. There is
a moderate to high probability that this activity will initiate with
a supercellular development to our west, eventually evolving into a
linear MCS as storms move over our forecast area. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
This system is progged to be progressive; but latest trends continue
to show excessive rainfall over areas where recently had significant
rainfall/flooding. For this reason, WPC placed us under a Moderate
Risk (level 3 of 4) and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)of excessive
rainfall today/tonight in their Day 1 Outlook and in a Slight Risk
in their Day 2 (Thursday). Most of this activity is progged to be
north of I-10. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be
expected north of I-10, with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 8
inches possible. Up to an inch of rain will be possible for areas
south of I-10 (lower amounts towards the coast). The greatest threat
of heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms should gradually
diminish on Thursday during the day.
A Flood Watch has been issued generally for counties north of the
Houston metro area from late this evening through Thursday evening.
Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take
action should flooding develop.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Several mid to upper level disturbances embedded in the
quasi zonal flow aloft will continue to move over the region
through early this weekend. During the early morning hours on
Friday, another pulse of low level moisture will move in from the
Gulf waters maintaining PWs between 1.5 to 1.8 inches, in
particular over the Piney Woods region. In addition, there`s the
indication of mid level vort maxes moving over the northern half
of Southeast Texas on Friday. Another thing to note is that
although the low level jet is at its strongest on Thursday, it may
still be present on Friday. Based on this set up, confidence of
seeing a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday is
increasing. For now, the best chances for showers and storms
would be Friday morning into early afternoon. Models show very dry
air along the mid levels moving into the region in the afternoon
and could help suppress some of the rainfall, however, good
instability and low level moisture remains throughout the day and
could combine with the vort maxes to help maintain isolated to
scattered storms over portions of Southeast Texas through late
afternoon or early evening. A lull in activity can be expected
Friday night and Saturday morning, although we will need to keep
an eye on a few more vort maxes that are to pass through Saturday
morning. On Saturday afternoon, another round of storms look to
develop mainly over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region,
where moisture and instability remains highest. There will be some
capping in place, thus, hopefully PoPs may not be as high as they
are currently forecasted (~30-50%).
One important thing to note is that the higher PoPs are once
again located along and east of I-45 and north of I-10. With the
expected rainfall to occur today and Thursday (in particularly
over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region) along with the
potential for localized flash flooding and river flooding, the
additional rainfall on Friday and Saturday could aggravate the
situation even more. Remember, rivers can see water levels
increasing several hours to days after the main rainfall event.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast and have multiple
ways to receive warnings.
By early next week, fairly tranquil conditions can be expected as
mid to upper level riding dominates the local weather pattern. This
will result in dry but warmer conditions with highs reaching the
upper 80s to low 90s early next week (some locations may reach
the mid 90s). PWs will range between 1.4 to 1.8 inches and with
dewpoints mainly in the low 70s, conditions will feel even warmer
as well as muggy.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
MVFR to occasional IFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus will
continue to develop and surge northward during the day. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible with the best
chances overnight. Gusty erratic winds and reduced visibility can
be expected with any strong storm. Southeasterly winds will
strength this afternoon around 10 to 15 knots.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Moderate onshore winds are expected through much of the forecast
period. Winds may flirt with Advisory levels on Thursday. Seas
will generally range between 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters
and 2 to 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Also, strong rip
currents could occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next
few days. Periods of showers and storms can be expected through
the end of the work week.
24
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
River flooding continues, particularly along portions of the
Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points
continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this morning:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
Flood Stage today
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Minor Flood
Stage today
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged
river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your
local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or
roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)
as the river flood threat continues.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 70 83 72 / 40 70 60 30
Houston (IAH) 84 72 84 72 / 30 40 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 73 80 73 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
with gusts TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-300.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-300-012100-
/O.CON.KHGX.FA.A.0004.240502T0300Z-240503T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-
Including the cities of Trinity, Liberty, Madisonville, Shepherd, College Station, Devers, Somerville, Dayton, Coldspring, Cleveland, Groveton, The Woodlands, Brenham, Bryan, Livingston, , Navasota, Crockett, Huntsville, Conroe, and Caldwell
703 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker and Washington.
* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Another round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Grounds are very saturated, so any additional rainfall will be slow to drain and could lead to stree flooding and additional rises on rivers, creeks and streams.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected north of I-10. Isolated higher amounts of 5 to 8 inches will be possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-300-012100-
/O.CON.KHGX.FA.A.0004.240502T0300Z-240503T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-
Including the cities of Trinity, Liberty, Madisonville, Shepherd, College Station, Devers, Somerville, Dayton, Coldspring, Cleveland, Groveton, The Woodlands, Brenham, Bryan, Livingston, , Navasota, Crockett, Huntsville, Conroe, and Caldwell
703 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker and Washington.
* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Another round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Grounds are very saturated, so any additional rainfall will be slow to drain and could lead to stree flooding and additional rises on rivers, creeks and streams.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected north of I-10. Isolated higher amounts of 5 to 8 inches will be possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Feast or famine…
I’m right on the edge.
I’m right on the edge.
Oh hey, another event where the southern area doesn't get jack.
Starting this afternoon through tonight, the HRRR has supercells possible for our entire area with some possibility of training in spots. Looks like an MCS will be pushing through overnight into early tomorrow as well. Some areas could see another 6+” but some might not get anything, but overall I think coverage could be a bit more widespread this time around.
The WPC now has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall roughly from Brookshire to Porter and points north and west of there. Marginal along the coast.
Crazy rare tornado action in Oklahoma yesterday.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/weather/ ... index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/weather/ ... index.html
Flood watch now includes Harris county
Nasty supercells crossing the border out west.
Catching a flight at noon from IAH tomorrow. I see my commute is going to suck in the morning.
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