May 2024

[don]

We'll see a break from the rain over the next couple of days.But we may not have to wait long for the next significant storm system.As a cutoff trough moves in next weekend, we could see several rounds of heavy rain again...

ecmwf_z500a_us_54.png (120.26 KiB) Viewed 710 times

[Ptarmigan]

Weather forecasting is often comes with uncertainty. May and spring are more unpredictable. I remember in some Mays, the forecast called for no to moderate rain and turns out to be heavy rain.

[jasons2k]

Well, the donut over here is gone, at least for now. Here are some recent rain totals:

Rain today 5/5/24: 1.49"
Rain this month: 12.41"
Rain in last 7 days: 14.01"

[Cpv17]

Well, the donut over here is gone, at least for now. Here are some recent rain totals:

Rain today 5/5/24: 1.49"
Rain this month: 12.41"
Rain in last 7 days: 14.01"

I had about half an inch today, but my sister in East Bernard had over 5”.

[tireman4]

003
FXUS64 KHGX 061117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today should serve as a nice break from the disruptive weather
throughout last week. Weak impulses moving overhead may bring
isolated showers/storms today, mainly north of US-59 through the
late afternoon. Thankfully, these storms will lack forcing/upper
level support, keeping them weaker/lighter in nature, which
shouldn`t agitate ongoing flooding issues. High resolution models
indicate 850mb temperatures climbing into the range of 16-19C today.
Even with cloudy to partly cloudy skies, high should reach the 80s.
Ample moisture will limit cooling overnight, keeping lows for early
Tuesday in the mid/lower 70s.

An upper level trough/low should fill NE over the Northern
Plains/Great Basin on Tuesday. The southwestern flank of this
system`s front will stall out near the Brazos Valley, keeping just
north of our area for Tuesday. 850mb winds will be out of the
west/southwesterly during the afternoon, with high resolution
guidance showing temperatures at this level rising to 18-22C. NAEFS
and GEFS indicate that these 850mb temperatures will be around the
90th-97.5th climatological percentile for this time of the year.
Partly cloud skies and compressional heating with the aforementioned
frontal boundary will further improve heating during the afternoon.
As a result, highs for Tuesday will reach the upper 80s/lower 90s
inland and mid 80s along the coast. Dewpoints are expected to be in
the 70s as well, leading to very humid conditions throughout the
day, especially in areas which received recent heavy rainfall.

The combination of above-normal temperatures and moist conditions
will allow heat indices to break triple digits for the first time
this year. WBGT indices are forecasted to reach 80-87, indicating
a higher risk of heat-related illnesses for those participating
in strenuous outdoor activities. This may be particularly
problematic for first responders and others aiding in ongoing
recovery efforts from last week`s severe weather & flooding.
Early-season heat can be especially stressful, as the human body
has not had time to acclimate to the warmer conditions. With all
these factors in mind, a heat advisory may be necessary for
Tuesday.

Those with strenuous outdoor plans, especially those aiding in
recovery efforts, should be mindful of this early-season heat.
Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing when
possible and take breaks indoors/out of the sun.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Hot and muggy conditions continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
South to southwest surface winds and 850mb temperatures into the
20 to 25 degC range will result in surface highs climbing into the
low 90s. On Wednesday, subtle vort maxes aloft and a passing LLJ
should lead to partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Thursday
looks to be hot, but pattern will change later during the day as
a frontal boundary pushes through, bringing rain and storm
chances. Deterministic solutions suggest a break in the cap later
in the afternoon; so have continued with PoPs around 20-45
percent. Overall, look for highs from the upper 80s to low 90s and
heat indices up to around 105F both Wednesday and Friday.

Friday is shaping up to be a few degrees cooler as surface high
pressure builds in the wake of the FROPA. Surface high gradually
shifts to our east by Saturday; bringing back return surface flow
and increasing Gulf moisture inland. Pattern changes by Sunday as
a parade of mid-level shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow moves
through the region ahead of another frontal boundary. Increasing
moisture and forcing will bring better rain and storm chances
Sunday and Monday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS and patchy fog should begin to clear out later
this morning, with VFR conditions returning this afternoon for
most TAF sites. Isolated showers and the occasional storm could
develop near KCLL & KUTS this afternoon. MVFR CIGS will fill in
across the region this evening, with IFR CIGS developing during
the early morning hours of Tuesday. CIGs once again improve late
Tuesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A relatively dry weather is anticipated today and tonight with
moderate onshore winds and seas from 3 to 6ft. Seas may reach
advisory levels offshore (~7-8ft) at times today; but overall
forecast is to remain under 6ft. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
conditions remain in effect today. Light to moderate onshore winds
and low seas will prevail through the week. Winds will shift to the
north-northeast Thursday night into Friday as a cold boundary moves
through. Onshore winds resume by Saturday. The next best rain/storm
chances arrive during the weekend as multiple disturbances move
through.

Beach conditions...dangerous rip currents can be expected along all
Gulf facing beaches through late this evening.

Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks and streams
will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the
bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today; however,
the threat of heavy rainfall resulting in any additional flooding
has ended across SE TX. Nonetheless, rivers are and will remain
swollen for days (possibly weeks), so please continue to take
caution. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the
floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it
is safe.

Moderate to major river flooding continues, particularly along
portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto and Navasota rivers. The
following river points are at Major flood stage as of early Monday
morning:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage
- West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage
- San Jacinto River (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and
to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor
updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat
continues.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 73 90 73 / 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 75 91 75 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 84 76 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[Cromagnum]

Bad tornado day expected in Oklahoma.

[Cpv17]

Pretty big difference once again between the Euro and GFS. Euro says more rain is on the way and GFS not so much.

[srainhoutx]

We got a cold front moving in for the weekend. Will it push off the Coast? That remains to be seen. Could see some 50's Saturday morning N of I- 10. I'm a bit concerned that some additional heavy rainfall could impact areas already experiencing flooding.

[Pas_Bon]

Pretty big difference once again between the Euro and GFS. Euro says more rain is on the way and GFS not so much.

I'm in Euro's corner for this round....

[Cpv17]

The SPC has already placed the northern parts of southeast Texas in a 15% chance for severe weather on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

[Cromagnum]

The SPC has already placed the northern parts of southeast Texas in a 15% chance for severe weather on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

They better not. 2nd attempt at my flight out for an interview is Thursday.

[Cpv17]

The SPC has already placed the northern parts of southeast Texas in a 15% chance for severe weather on Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

They better not. 2nd attempt at my flight out for an interview is Thursday.

They have. Might end up being an enhanced risk by the time it gets here.

[DoctorMu]

Pretty big difference once again between the Euro and GFS. Euro says more rain is on the way and GFS not so much.

I'm in Euro's corner for this round....

The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowing more energy further south than the last 10 years (on average). The weather has been more like the 90s. A bit wetter for us. There have been a lot of cloudy days this Spring.

I'm betting "over" on Thursday and Thursday night rain. A nice little cool down after the late week front with lows near 60 and highs around 80 deg to low 80s in CLL through the weekend

[DoctorMu]

Flooding on Rock Prairie Road east of CLL near a creek that feeds into the Navasota and then Brazos River. Look for cresting downstream, folks. Hopefully Brazos, Trinity, and San Jacinto Rivers don't add even more to Houston's woes.

Turn around. Don't drown!

[Cromagnum]

That is a lot of mesos in OK / KA right now...

[don]

We're having a classic Tornado Season this year. With the majority of severe weather happening in the southern and central plains instead of Dixie Alley.

[DoctorMu]

30.72 inches of rain for the year. While we won't see probably half of 90 inches in CLL for the year...but what an amazing pace for the first 1/3 of 2024.

[Ptarmigan]

Pretty big difference once again between the Euro and GFS. Euro says more rain is on the way and GFS not so much.

I'm in Euro's corner for this round....

The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowing more energy further south than the last 10 years (on average). The weather has been more like the 90s. A bit wetter for us. There have been a lot of cloudy days this Spring.

I'm betting "over" on Thursday and Thursday night rain. A nice little cool down after the late week front with lows near 60 and highs around 80 deg to low 80s in CLL through the weekend

Years that transition from El Nino to La Nina are generally wetter. 1919, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, and 2016 come to mind. Some of the wettest years on record in Houston occurred in El Nino to La Nina years.

Years with 60 inches and higher in Houston
2017 79.69
1900 72.86
1919 72.38
2001 71.19
1973 70.16
2015 70.03
1946 68.97
2007 65.52
2004 65.06
1949 64.22
1959 63.85
1923 62.84
1907 62.51
1941 61.99
1914 61.44
1991 61.09
2016 60.96
1997 60.22

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=hgx

1900, 1919, 1973, 1997, 2007, and 2016 started with El Nino and transitioned away to La Nina, with exception of 1900. Some of the wet years are La Nina years, like 1923, 1946, 1949, and 1959. 2001 and 2017 are wet largely due to tropical systems, Allison in 2001 and Harvey in 2017.

[Cpv17]

I'm in Euro's corner for this round....

The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowing more energy further south than the last 10 years (on average). The weather has been more like the 90s. A bit wetter for us. There have been a lot of cloudy days this Spring.

I'm betting "over" on Thursday and Thursday night rain. A nice little cool down after the late week front with lows near 60 and highs around 80 deg to low 80s in CLL through the weekend

Years that transition from El Nino to La Nina are generally wetter. 1919, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, and 2016 come to mind.

I’ve noticed that first year La Nina’s can often provide some interesting weather.

[Ptarmigan]

The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowing more energy further south than the last 10 years (on average). The weather has been more like the 90s. A bit wetter for us. There have been a lot of cloudy days this Spring.

I'm betting "over" on Thursday and Thursday night rain. A nice little cool down after the late week front with lows near 60 and highs around 80 deg to low 80s in CLL through the weekend

Years that transition from El Nino to La Nina are generally wetter. 1919, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, and 2016 come to mind.

I’ve noticed that first year La Nina’s can often provide some interesting weather.

Or outright La Nina years can be wet as well.