May 2024

[Stratton20]

I personally think most of the rain will focused in north and eastern texas, still think we see maybe some activity though, i do agree with the WPC outlook, but personally central and western texas need the rain way more than we do, lets send it that way lol

[Cpv17]

I personally think most of the rain will focused in north and eastern texas, still think we see maybe some activity though, i do agree with the WPC outlook, but personally central and western texas need the rain way more than we do, lets send it that way lol

Watch me get another quarter or half inch again lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah you have been unlucky recently, but you'll get some more, and even though models currently focus most of the rain North and East of se texas, still is plenty of time for that to change

[don]

Technically models show the corridor of disturbances further south than they did last time.For example the Euro has disturbances originating further south in South central Texas before moving east along the I-10 corridor.(FWIW) It's important to not get hung up on QPF amounts and locations in this range. Just like last week we'll have to watch mesoscale models daily to get an idea on rainfall amounts and severe weather areas of interest.And also like last week some areas may get triple the amounts or more than what the models are showing now.

18Z GFS (notice the corridor of higher QPF along I-10 and to the coast of Louisiana).

Screenshot 2024-05-09 at 17-20-34 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png (1020.44 KiB) Viewed 589 times

[DoctorMu]

Muggiest day of the year out there so far in my opinion.

Dewpoint of 76°F at the airport. 79°F IMFY - heat index of 106°F. I may wait another day to mow the lawn! I blew off yesterday because of the high DP.

[don]

18Z GFS

Screenshot 2024-05-09 at 18-27-42 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png (1.01 MiB) Viewed 566 times

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS


Screenshot 2024-05-09 at 18-27-42 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

Put the blob over Mississippi at my house.

[DoctorMu]

Those hail-filled supercells approaching I-35 are rippin' it!! A Tornado watch is in effect immediately north of us and a severe T-storm watch in CLL.



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[DoctorMu]

There is some backbuilding streamer showers forming east of CLL and supercells bearing down Hwy 6 that don't want to take prisoners.

[DoctorMu]

Largely a bust here, but an impressive outflow boundary as intense cells collapsed. A DP of 67°F with the breeze never felt so refreshing.

The rivers are flooded enough, so losing out on rain is no biggie.

The line may reform as the showers head towards Houston.

[Ptarmigan]

A lot of uncertainty. There were thunderstorms earlier today.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

6 solar storms headed our way. First time in 2.5 decades.

Sun is very angry right now. 12% chance of global EMP.

[christinac2016]

Is Sunday still looking wet? There’s a tri (now a duathon) at Alexander duessen park.

[Cpv17]

Is Sunday still looking wet? There’s a tri (now a duathon) at Alexander duessen park.

Yes. They should’ve moved it to Saturday.

[Cpv17]

The WPC has increased totals throughout the area. Interesting though that Channel 13 had an 80% chance yesterday for Sunday and now decreased it to 70%. Seems odd to me.

[Rip76]

6 solar storms headed our way. First time in 2.5 decades.

Sun is very angry right now. 12% chance of global EMP.

Is this, this evening or tomorrow?

[don]

Today's 12Z Global Models

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 17-08-12 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png (1.09 MiB) Viewed 197 times

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 17-08-04 Models GDPS - Pivotal Weather.png (1.03 MiB) Viewed 197 times

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 17-08-27 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png (1.13 MiB) Viewed 197 times

[Stratton20]

Mesocale models so far are rather unimpressed with much rain down here on mothers day, HRRR, WRF and NAM models keep most of the rain on sunday to our north and east, not a lot of action across se texas

Edit: Mesocales stop at sunday night after 48 hours, will see in another day what they show monday

[don]

Mesocale models so far are rather unimpressed with much rain down here on mothers day, HRRR, WRF and NAM models keep most of the rain on sunday to our north and east, not a lot of action across se texas

Edit: Mesocales stop at sunday night after 48 hours, will see in another day what they show monday

The HRRR is already showing a potent disturbance moving through Sunday morning.Not that one specific day matters as this is another multi day event.Sunday is just the start of the wet pattern not the peak of the event.

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 17-23-20 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (496.94 KiB) Viewed 187 times

Screenshot 2024-05-10 at 17-23-29 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (517.75 KiB) Viewed 187 times

[Cpv17]

I really don’t care two cents what the NAM says. The only time I use that model is during the winter for temperatures. It does somewhat decent for that. Other than that it’s a pile of garbage.