Hurricane Beryl

[Stratton20]

ICON decent shift north, 969 mb at landfall

[sambucol]

ICON decent shift north, 969 mb at landfall

Where is landfall in this run?

[Scott747]

A bunch of upper level data obtained out ahead of Beryl this afternoon should help with the short range guidance and where Beryl comes off the YP. Likely made it in to the 0z models tonight so hopefully they reflect if there is a change in the cards. This will be crucial to how far up the coast it could make it.

The weakness is going to be there....

[Scott747]

0z GFS is going to be further n....

[Scott747]

Looks like it gets 'captured' as it makes an initial landfall at Port Isabel.

[Scott747]

Intensifying as it moves nnw just offshore.

[don]

Screenshot 2024-07-04 a[...].png (806.46 KiB) Viewed 3024 times

Screenshot 2t024-07-04 a[...].png (860.04 KiB) Viewed 3018 times

[Scott747]

Second landfall up around Corpus/Rockport at 983 still moving nnw.

[don]

I'm currently at my moms in Bay City for the next couple of weeks, so im watching these trends closely.

[Cpv17]

I'm currently at my moms in Bay City for the next couple of weeks, so im watching these trends closely.

I work in Bay City! Lol

[Scott747]

A significant shift n on both the HAFS hurricane models.

[Scott747]

Although they both look as if it decouples off of the YP and reorganize further n. Both are having issues resolving the center.

[Stratton20]

Big shift north on the euro, comes in just a tick north of south padre fwiw

[Scott747]

They both do some quirky movements off the YP but end up landfalling just s of the border.

Depending on what the Euro shows there should be a shift with the 5 am advisory to near the border if not in Texas.

[DoctorMu]

https://youtu.be/5II-WnW9OJo?si=evNrm0FpNAj1lX_q

[DoctorMu]

Big shift north on the euro, comes in just a tick north of south padre fwiw

The models are caving to the curvature, the power of Beryl, and the inevitable.

Beryl is already a legend.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m here for the s show in CoCo!

Been a long 2 weeks on the road!

[Scott747]

0z Euro with quite a sizable shift close to Baffin Bay.

Think we will see the 5 am advisory move up to Port Isabel with the disco mentioning further shifts possible.

[DoctorMu]

A significant shift n on both the HAFS hurricane models.

Wow - that's a huge move north for HAFS-A and HAFS-B. (the new NOAA models sound like Dr. Seuss names) They are still newbs, but good correction.

[DoctorMu]

0z Euro with quite a sizable shift close to Baffin Bay.

Think we will see the 5 am advisory move up to Port Isabel with the disco mentioning further shifts possible.

Musk better batten down the hatches.