Hurricane Beryl

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote: Beryl made Hurricane Nicholas (2021) look like child's play.Both were cat 1's that made landfall near the same area.
Nicholas was pretty much a nonevent for a good portion of our area due to its weird track.
Yep the track and also the shear, that made Nicholas "half naked". Here are the outages during Nicholas vs Beryl. Nicholas outages at the top and Beryls below.

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Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:10 pm
don wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:22 pm Beryl made Hurricane Nicholas (2021) look like child's play.Both were cat 1's that made landfall near the same area.
Nicholas was pretty much a nonevent for a good portion of our area due to its weird track.

Pretty much in the eyewall for Nicholas and definitely in the eyewall for Beryl. Nicholas was a little noisy and I lost a couple shingles. Beryl was a 6 hour freight train and tore my home a new one.
Cpv17
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Captured this yesterday while driving around to look at the damage. This was in Hillje (a couple miles outside of El Campo).

Image

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christinac2016
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Finally had signal to get on. The Woodlands had damage. Winds terrible. But we are okay. Parents and I are here. Waiting for entergy to restore. Feel like we’re off the grid.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Captured this yesterday while driving around to look at the damage. This was in Hillje (a couple miles outside of El Campo).

Image

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Wow! 😮
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tireman4
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OK, I am checking in. Both Katdaddy and myself are good. No power. No internet. We went over to my brother in was house because crazy enough, they have power. They are 3 miles from our house. I can tell you in the Groves and Eagle Springs section of Atascocita, there is no power with trees and branches down.
Cromagnum
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Inside of house is all the way up to 83 degrees and 73% humidity. Thank God I have a generator and portable AC to cool off one room, but this super sucks. My central air is going to take all day to get things back to normal once I ever get power restored.
Tx2005
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Humble - still no power. Lots of trees and fences down, and I've heard there are a lot of power lines down as well all over this side of town. I figure it's going to take a while to get power up and running for everybody.

I found out I have family who have power so I went across town today because the heat was getting to be a lot with two young kids. Hope to get power back soon and back to our daily routine.
869MB
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Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?
ajurcat
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Thank you all for your guidance and input on Beryl. Truly appreciated.
Pas_Bon
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869MB wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:51 am Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?
I cannot even fathom that.
davidiowx
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869MB wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:51 am Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?
No thanks lol. I know I wouldn’t be here if that was coming.

Still without power over here in the Pecan Grove area. I heard we were in the news last night as one of the “hardest hit”. Doesn’t surprise me since there are trees down everywhere. I counted 7-8 in houses just going down a few streets I could get down yesterday morning.
Cromagnum
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869MB wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:51 am Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?

I used to say I would ride it out up to a Cat 3. Based on what Beryl did at my house, I might change that to a cat 2 max. My house would fall apart at a 3+
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DoctorMu
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Beryl was a CAT 1 but acted like a diva CAT 2. She maintained integrity inland better that most TCs.

We were on the weaker side, but had 6 hours of pretty fierce wind and rain.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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869MB wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:51 am Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?
About 15-20 years ago, I watched a documentary on the 5 most damaging AND POSSIBLE natural disasters in the USA. Two were in Texas.

One was a EF5 cutting SW to NE across Dallas.

The other was a Cat 5 coming ashore in Freeport and riding 288. They showed hypothetical damage all the way up to NETX. You do not want to imagine what that would look like. That's next level WW2 European damage type stuff.
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Tx2005
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869MB wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:51 am Since everyone is still dealing with the aftermath of Beryl in some form or fashion, this storm is still fresh on everyone’s mind. Now I simply ask everyone affected by this storm to close their eyes for a moment and imagine if 150mph Category 4 Hurricane Laura had struck our region head on like Hurricane Beryl did. What images come to mind?
This thought is why my wife and I are considering moving out of SE Texas. There have been so many weather disasters in the past ten years, and to be fair, we've been lucky in cases like Laura.

I can't even imagine what riding out a storm like Laura would be like, even as far inland as I live. I can't even fathom the aftermath.
Pas_Bon
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Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts on 8/25/2005. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005. Katrina made landfall in Buras, La (Plaquemines Parish) on Monday 8/29/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
Tx2005
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:02 am Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
My only beef with the SCW guys is how they speak with certainty while uncertainty still exists. I get that they want to avoid the opposite end of people claiming every storm is a category 5 that will hit Houston directly and the media is lying, but unfortunately speaking like this won't be an issue 5-6 days out understandably upsets people when they have to scramble 1-2 days before landfall when things change. I think they need to be more open about the probabilities of different outcomes. They do at times, but it's typically buried deep in a post while the headline or summary at the top of the post screams "nothing to worry about here". Since most people likely don't read the entire post, they never get far past the headline.

I honestly think Travis Herzog played this one well. He spoke to what we knew at the time while also pointing out uncertainties and possible risks. I've seen people on other places (Texags specifically) claim him to be a fear monger, but I think how he did it what is necessary. You can't please the masses of course no matter what you do.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:02 am Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts on 8/25/2005. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005. Katrina made landfall in Buras, La (Plaquemines Parish) on Monday 8/29/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
I said 5 days before it hit that it would make landfall between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas. I’m gonna give myself some credit for that lol I wasn’t off by that much.
Pas_Bon
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On the contrary, the one individual (professional met) that stands out with Beryl was Travis Herzog. He preached caution for HOU early on and even as all models/forecasts pointed to N Mex/S Tex.
Who knows….maybe he will whiff in the future. All nets have their storm and all Mets also have “their storm.”

It’s not exact. It happens. It doesn’t make them great or poor. Consistency and conviction are key.
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