September 2024

[Stratton20]

Off topic, but FSU may be the worst team ranked in the top 10 that ive ever seen, this is such an ugly game

[TexasBreeze]

Yeah they probably wouldn't be ranked if they did an ap poll after their last week loss. Making the ex Texans coach look good!
A&M lacked spirit too in their game.

[tireman4]

930
FXUS64 KHGX 031123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

The reign of unsettled weather across Southeast Texas persists
through the short term. And while there are some nuances and
subtle shifts that we`ll talk about shortly, the teal deer can
come by and boil things down to "highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s,
lows in the 70s, periods of scattered showers and storms". All in
all, pretty close to seasonal averages on all counts this time of
year, and really a touch cooler than average on those daytime
highs!

Okay, with the broad picture out of the way, let`s chew on some of
the finer details. While the generally cyclonic flow we have through
most of the column is usually an onshore, moist one...sometimes
things will back a little more to being easterly or even somewhat
northeasterly, which cuts off flow from the Gulf, and is instead
brings in a more continental airmass, which is modestly drier.

This is precisely what should happen for much of the day today, and
while the difference will be modest, it should pin up much of the
rain, and definitely any storms, down around the Matagorda Bay area.
The dip in precipitable water will be modest - only down to around
1.7 inches at the most! But it`s warm enough that there`s pretty
strong agreement that swaths of the eastern forecast area see a
noticeable pocket of relatively dry air sweep through the area,
which should keep things to light showers at most up there through
much of the day.

Having said that, I want to set expectations properly here. This
"drier" air is very much relatively speaking, and still looks to be
quite moist. So by this afternoon, I think we`ll see things in the
east start to fill in a little more, though activity still will lag
behind the activity in the southwest, where things remain fully
juiced up. Speaking of, with precipitable water up around 2.5 inches
and the highest rain chances, locations around Matagorda Bay that
see persistent rainfall could see rainfall rates/amounts high enough
for localized flooding issues to emerge in low-lying and poor
drainage spots, and there is a corresponding slight risk area for
excessive rain from WPC.

Overnight, we can expect a routine pulling back of the best rain
chances towards the Gulf as overnight cooling should still be enough
to get at least a weak nocturnal inversion that (mostly) turns off
the tap, while the more slowly cooling Gulf remains more unstable.

Tomorrow looks fairly similar, though the troughing aloft looks to
drift up the Texas coast through the day. This actually provides
some mixed signals, in that it should reinforce the continental flow
for the area, which typically is drier and should diminish activity.
But there appears to be enough moisture wrapping around the trough
axis that it mostly washes out this influence. Instead, I think this
should result in a tighter convective gradient where there`s enough
lift and moisture to trigger more convective activity near the
coast, but will become more isolated as you push inland. Of course,
with coastal PWATs around/in excess of 2.5 inches, strong cells near
the Gulf could produce some locally intense rain rates, prompting
yet another marginal risk area for excessive rain in a band right
along the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

No major changes with this wet unsettled pattern through the end of
the week. Abundant moisture (PWs ranging from 2.2-2.6") will remain
over the area on Thurs/Fri. This coupled with weak disturbances mov-
ing in from the east, daytime heating and perhaps even the seabreeze
will help to keep scattered POPs in the forecast during this period.
The higher chances will be near the coast...generally along to south
of the I-10 corridor. Rain chances north of the interstate should be
more isolated to widely scattered in nature.

And as previously advertised, we should be seeing an end to this wet
humid weather of late by this weekend. Models remain on track with a
weak cold front moving into SE TX late Fri/early Sat. A cooler drier
airmass is forecast to filter into the region for the weekend in its
wake. While highs are progged remain in the mid to upper 80s for Sat
through Mon, overnight lows in the 60s are possible. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

Bulk of morning rains are south of TAF sites, but one band is
scraping through the 10 mile circle for LBX, and likely will have
sporadic impact there through the morning, so gave them a TEMPO
-SHRA. Even could see enough drift northward to clip the
southwestern portion of the 10 mile circle for SGR and GLS as
well. Otherwise, expecting a band of iso/sct SHRA around most of
the other terminals this afternoon, but low confidence in impact
to any one site, so VCSH`s abound at CLL, CXO, IAH, and HOU,
leaving only UTS entirely dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the most part, will be expecting light to moderate E/NE winds and
seas from 1-3 ft to prevail through the rest of this week. Periods of
unsettled weather will also continue...mainly during the overnight to
early morning hours then becoming more isolated activity by the after-
noon. Winds and seas will be higher in and near the stronger storms.

A weak cold front is expected to move into the coastal waters by late
Fri night into Sat morning. Moderate to occasionally gusty N/NE winds
are expected in the wake of this boundary. Small Craft Advisories are
possible at times this weekend. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 75 91 74 / 30 30 30 10
Houston (IAH) 91 77 89 75 / 30 20 50 50
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 86 78 / 30 50 60 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...41

[jasons2k]

No mention in that discussion of the disturbance that was supposed to move down from the northwest and boost rain chances back up to 80% for Wed and Thu this week. That’s apparently off the table now too.

[don]

It’s raining pretty good down here. I can’t wait to leave this humidity behind.

[Cpv17]

So DirecTV took away ESPN and ABC from me Sunday night right before I was going to watch the LSU vs USC game. I’m now looking to switch to Fubo (which is much cheaper than Direct anyway), but my internet is too slow to stream it. I live out in a rural area so it’s hard for me to get high speed internet. I’ve heard T-Mobile Home Internet will work? I’m just looking to stream up to 2 TV’s at once and do some occasional gaming on one console. Does anyone have any suggestions? I’m leaning towards T-Mobile unless someone else has another suggestion?

[srainhoutx]

So DirecTV took away ESPN and ABC from me Sunday night right before I was going to watch the LSU vs USC game. I’m now looking to switch to Fubo (which is much cheaper than Direct anyway), but my internet is too slow to stream it. I live out in a rural area so it’s hard for me to get high speed internet. I’ve heard T-Mobile Home Internet will work? I’m just looking to stream up to 2 TV’s at once and do some occasional gaming on one console. Does anyone have any suggestions? I’m leaning towards T-Mobile unless someone else has another suggestion?

I have T Mobil 5 G internet and love it! We can have 4 or 5 TV'S on with 10+ additional devices connected to the internet. No gaming personally, but we can have Guests in our Airbnb streaming games.

[Cpv17]

So DirecTV took away ESPN and ABC from me Sunday night right before I was going to watch the LSU vs USC game. I’m now looking to switch to Fubo (which is much cheaper than Direct anyway), but my internet is too slow to stream it. I live out in a rural area so it’s hard for me to get high speed internet. I’ve heard T-Mobile Home Internet will work? I’m just looking to stream up to 2 TV’s at once and do some occasional gaming on one console. Does anyone have any suggestions? I’m leaning towards T-Mobile unless someone else has another suggestion?

I have T Mobil 5 G internet and love it! We can have 4 or 5 TV'S on with 10+ additional devices connected to the internet. No gaming personally, but we can have Guests in our Airbnb streaming games.

Thanks, I’ve heard mixed reviews about it. I just don’t wanna spend $299 for Starlinks equipment and then pay $120 a month for internet. That’s just crazy to me.

[Cromagnum]

Good soaking rain here in Georgetown. Flooding rains out near the ranch house in Paint Rock. Crazy times.

[DoctorMu]

Good soaking rain here in Georgetown. Flooding rains out near the ranch house in Paint Rock. Crazy times.

Yeah, the last 2 days - the Hill Country radar is full.

[tireman4]

322
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Unsettled weather with plenty of opportunities for rain -potentially
locally heavy rain along the coast - carry on for at least another
couple days. Here are some key things to know:

- A flood watch has been issued for counties right on the Gulf
coast from this morning through Thursday night. This means that
the environment will be supportive of excessive rainfall in
vulnerable locations across this area, thanks to a combination
of earlier rains, possible locally heavy rainfall, and elevated
tides.
- It`s important to focus on the expected impacts over the next
couple of days! That will be for the potential for localized
flooding issues in vulnerable urban and low-lying locations near
the Gulf. It also includes conditions likely hazardous to small
craft on the Gulf from winds, seas, and rain/storms. The
precise scientific evolution of this event will have
functionally no effect on these expected impacts.
- Once we get through the slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive
rain over the next two days, expect the weather pattern to calm
down a little bit. This will include a modest increase in
temperatures, and less potential for rainfall, particularly
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Messiness continues its grip on the short term, and if anything,
it`s somehow managing to be even more messy than things appeared
last night? At any rate, it is not sparking joy.

The broad strokes remain pretty similar and high confidence...and
then things get tricky once you try to get more detailed than that.
So, to reinforce from last night - highs on the cool side of average
in the upper 80s to around 90, lows in the 70s, and plenty of
opportunities for rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
With such high amounts of moisture involved, the heaviest rains,
expected over the Gulf and bleeding onto the coast, could cause
localized flooding concerns. Over the land, that is. I`m not sure I
want to try to wrap my head around what flooding on the Gulf would
mean.

And so...while this broad stroke forecast hasn`t really changed from
last night, the devil is lying in wait in the details. This already
reared its head yesterday, when the band of showers I expected to
form up across the gut of the forecast area did indeed form up!
Just...instead of slicing across much of Harris and Montgomery
County up towards College Station, it ended up being more Montgomery
and Walker County up towards College Station. So much for showery
IAH and dry Huntsville...

We`ll likely run into a lot of the same problems over the next two
days as a cute little mid-level vort max continues to make its way
up the Texas Gulf Coast, along with troughing and potentially even a
low pressure center drilling all the way down to the surface,
and...you`re probably seeing where things are going to get really,
really messy by now, aren`t you?

I`ve got pretty high confidence that rains will be confined to the
Gulf and in the counties right along the coast through, oh...let`s
call it mid-day. Things should not change too much from where they
are right now, and this is pretty close to a now-cast. After
that...everything depends on the low level response beneath the vort
max aloft evolves. We could see a loose surface trough make its way
by, tossing a slug of tropical moisture into Southeast Texas to help
fuel a mass of disorganized showers. We...could see a tighter,
closed low develop, with somewhat more organized bands of showers,
and the impact would be strongly dependent on the precise track of
this low.

The global models tend to favor a more loosely organized feature
rolling by. Generally an open surface trough, and maybe hinting at a
bit of a closed low as it makes its way out of the area? That`s if
you squint your eyes right, though. All the way on the other side,
much of the mesoscale and convective allowing guidance models are
much more aggressive with a surface low pressure center, and a more
organized collection of rain bands. This allows for training rain to
set up, and some of the QPF numbers showing up in HREF precip
products are starting to pile up. To pull a silver lining out of
this, though, it does seem like the biggest QPF numbers are
offshore, safely over the Gulf. There may be some bleedover of
locally heavy rain onto land, but I do think things should be pretty
confined to those counties on the Gulf coast itself. As a result,
we`ve opted to have a flood watch for the counties on the Gulf only
for today through Thursday night as we deal with rains
from...whatever exactly it will be that scrapes on by during this
timeframe.

And yes, although it`s futile, I suppose I should try to cancel the
hype train before it leaves the station. Yes, I`m using words like
"closed low on the Gulf", and that naturally invites speculation on
if it`s something that will get a name. And...come in closer,
closer! I`ve got a little secret to tell you. Yes, okay, lean
in......it doesn`t really matter! Remember way up top when I said
the broad strokes were high confidence? That holds, regardless of
whatever scientific bin someone wants to throw this in. No matter
what, we will want to be prepared for continued unsettled weather,
with particularly high chances for rainfall, and some signal for
locally heavy rain right on the coast. Could something crazy happen?
I mean, sure, yeah, we`re not even two decades removed from getting
Humberto`d here in Southeast Texas.

So I`ll never dissuade you from checking in on the latest from us
and the NHC once or twice a day just to make sure you`re working
with the latest and greatest info. But also...it`s early
September...having an awareness of what`s happening in the tropics
is a smart play no matter what right now. We`re all a bunch of
weather nerds, and I can guarantee you we`re gonna be hollerin`
about whatever it is that needs hollerin`. You`ll notice I`m
writing this in the short term section and not in a tropical
section - and yes, I`m doing that for a reason. For right now,
the hollerin` is about rain on the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Active/unsettled weather will be possible on Fri...mainly across the
coastal/southern portions of the CWA as there are indications that a
low-level low/coastal trough is expected to be moving over the north-
western Gulf. For much of the rest of the CWA, we`ll likely see some
drier air filter in (via the developing NE flow) on the back side of
this feature. Elevated rain chances/potential flood issues should be
ongoing for our coastal locations on Fri. Stay tuned.

Otherwise, by Fri night, we should be starting to see dewpoints fall
across northern portions of the CWA. The track of this system in the
Gulf will make it difficult to discern an actual FROPA or its timing
but, regardless, a much drier airmass is progged to filter down into
the rest of SE TX through the rest of the weekend. Clearing skies...
lower humidities and cooler overnight lows (i.e. lower to mid 60s!!)
are on tap for this weekend and perhaps into the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Broadly speaking, high confidence in general forecast idea - much
like previous days, scattered to widespread showers and storms
with less activity far inland, restricted to aftn development, and
more widespread rain and storm activity with gusty conditions at
the coast.

Confidence in specifics for timing and impacts to terminals is not
so high. CLL/UTS/CXO more of the inland character. IAH also
similar, though a brief shower in southern vicinity of field can`t
be totally ruled out. With a broad VCTS window there, have a
PROB30 to sketch out period where lightning most probable.
Conditions get increasingly dominated by SHRA and VCTS towards the
coast, and also introduce 20-25kt gusts - particularly for
LBX/GLS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

An area of unsettled weather currently situated just off the Mid and
Lower TX coast is forecast to slowly move back north the next couple
days. This will allow for increasing winds/seas as well as continued
periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms for the Upper TX coast
today through Fri. Small Craft Advisories are likely...and can could
be issued as early as tonight.

Mariners should closely monitor the latest forecast(s) as models are
hinting at potentially higher winds/seas in the next 48 hours or so.
A cold front will bring moderate to strong N/NE winds to the area by
Fri night/early Sat. Winds and seas will remain elevated in the wake
of the front into the weekend with SCA`s persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 89 72 / 30 20 50 10
Houston (IAH) 91 77 86 74 / 60 50 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 84 76 / 70 90 90 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ214-235>238-335>338-
436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[tireman4]

Radar

[jasons2k]

Just a friendly reminder, this was the WPC from one week ago for 7 days, ending this morning. Nowhere near 4” up here.

[Pas_Bon]

We are finally getting substantial rainfall in League City. Yay.

[Cpv17]

Raining plenty down here. We’ve picked up over 2” in the past week. More than enough.

[jasons2k]

Looked promising earlier, now everything fizzling as it moves inland. Then later today it’ll probably be raining in College Station and Austin but not here….

[Cpv17]

Looked promising earlier, now everything fizzling as it moves inland. Then later today it’ll probably be raining in College Station and Austin but not here….

Y’all had a big downpour last week though.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Scattered to widespread showers will continue through much of the
period. A lull in activity expected for all but LBX/GLS from
around 06Z-10Z, after which another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected. Gusty winds and locally heavy downpours
are possible with these storms. CIGS will vary, bouncing from VFR
to MVFR/IFR withy any nearby showers/storms. Lowered VSBYs will
also be possible with showers/storms.

[jasons2k]

Looked promising earlier, now everything fizzling as it moves inland. Then later today it’ll probably be raining in College Station and Austin but not here….

Y’all had a big downpour last week though.

Half an inch…heavier rains missed me

[Pas_Bon]

Not complaining because we finally got substantive precipitation, but why, over the course of the past week and change, has most precip coming in from the Gulf fizzled out around more inland locales of Galveston, Brazoria, and Ft Bend Counties?
What is the meteorological reason for this?
Last week, they would fizzle out, then re-form in Harris County and many points North.
Meanwhile, Matagorda County, Jefferson County, Chambers, etc. have been inundated the past several days.

What is it, specifically, that caused the precip to fizzle out over just these locations?