My guess is convective temps.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 3:31 pm Not complaining because we finally got substantive precipitation, but why, over the course of the past week and change, has most precip coming in from the Gulf fizzled out around more inland locales of Galveston, Brazoria, and Ft Bend Counties?
What is the meteorological reason for this?
Last week, they would fizzle out, then re-form in Harris County and many points North.
Meanwhile, Matagorda County, Jefferson County, Chambers, etc. have been inundated the past several days.
What is it, specifically, that caused the precip to fizzle out over just these locations?
September 2024
Definitely liking the looks of the projected lows starting in a few days. Natural night-time air conditioning.
It’s a little interesting tonight I must say.
Rain all around but just a mist here.
Beast from the east stretching its tentacles.
We'll be in NOLA this weekend, naturally missing out on cooler nights here.
We'll be in NOLA this weekend, naturally missing out on cooler nights here.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5084
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
654
FXUS64 KHGX 051127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
The unsettled weather pattern of the last several days carries on
for at least one day more, but we should also get to see the first
signs of a transition in the weather pattern later on Friday or
Friday night. Until then, however, the threat for locally heavy
rainfall continues along the Gulf coast, with more isolated to
scattered rains expected farther inland. The highlights:
- A flood watch continues for the counties on the Gulf coast again
today, and remains in effect through at least early Friday
morning. This is also joined by another day at the coast with a
slight risk for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) from WPC.
- When traveling, especially so in the watch area, be alert to
weather and road conditions. While the environment to support
flooding rains is along the entire Gulf coast, actual flooding
will emerge in more localized spots where it rains the hardest,
for the longest, and where the rainwater drains the slowest.
Have multiple ways to receive any warnings, and have alternate
routes in mind that you can take if you come across any flooded
roadways!
- Patience will be rewarded. A cold front will make its way
through the area this weekend, ushering in a beginning to the
new week with fairer weather, and perhaps most importantly,
*drier* air. The effect of this front on daytime highs will be
modest, but we can expect low to nil rain chances, less
humidity, and noticeably cooler nights. Deeper into the new
week will bring some moderation once onshore flow returns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Another night, another radar scope full of showers and an
occasional, isolated thunderstorm out over the Gulf, threatening
to push into Southeast Texas later in the day. All expectations
are for another day with ample rain chances across Southeast
Texas, with the character being isolated to scattered showers and
storms well inland, becoming more numerous and widespread around
the coast and definitely out over the Gulf.
Behind the swath of rain offshore, though, are multiple
interesting features. At the mid-levels, there was earlier a very
apparent mid-level circulation over the Northwest Gulf, roughly
lining up with a mid-level low/vort max analyzed in numerical
guidance in that area. This feature has gotten a little harder to
see as convection has flourished over the last few hours, but
that`s not terribly surprising given this gives us a relative
height minimum, a vorticity advection maximum, all over the old
stalled frontal zone. Farther south, outside of our area, there is
a visible low-level circulation as well, which does show up nicely
in the objective SPC surface mesoanalysis as well. While
convection has not been blooming quite as significantly down here,
it is still active, and will be another place to watch while the
whole mess makes its way slowly up the coast.
Of course, with a mess of multiple focus points for convection,
and likely important mesoscale influences dueling across the
northwestern Gulf, we remain in a situation where I can pretty
confident make a broad-brush sketch of the next couple of days,
and very much hoping nobody asks very detailed questions about
specific locations and/or timing. I`m increasing confident
that...whatever it is...that drags across the region will be far
enough onshore, that we can really pin the potential for any
locally heavy rain very near the coast where precipitable water
values are progged to stick above 2.5 inches and we can expect
more numerous showers developing. Really, the highest potential
for heavy rains will be over the Gulf itself, but you can`t really
flood the Gulf. Instead, we`ll be looking to see where some of
those heavier rains bleed their way just onshore for localized
flooding concerns.
Farther inland, we`ll have a little less moisture available, and
more isolated to scattered shower and storm development. That`s
not to say there can`t be any heavier rain showers inland of the
coastal counties - PWATs are still around/above 2 inches, and any
stronger cells that do develop should be pretty efficient
rainmakers. But those cells will be more isolated, have low
training potential, and ultimately most locations will see less
intense rain showers (if anything at all) and lighter rainfall
totals.
Overnight tonight, expect rains to mostly pull back to the Gulf
and coastal regions, while showers come to an end farther inland
again, with lows only falling into the 70s area-wide. Tomorrow, we
begin the process again, but with greater question for rainfall
potential than the past several days. We`re really going to have
to see what - if any - features become dominant through today and
tonight, and where that ends up relative to the coast. Whatever
forces continued rain development is very likely to be offshore,
so the best rain chances will continue to be at the coast, and
also in the easternmost part of our forecast area, where we could
see rain development aided by moisture wrapped around Gulf low
pressure (emphasis on could).
Because of the uncertainty in just how rainy Friday will be
relative to earlier in the week, I`m opting to leave the end time
for the coastal flood watch at Friday morning. Should things set
up to favor a rainier day on Friday, we could extend that as late
as early Friday evening. I`ll leave the determination on that to
future shifts, as they should get some better confidence on the
important details determining when heavier rains will come to an
end.
Friday night will see a bit of a taste of the weather to be
discussed below in the long term. It won`t be the weekend front
we`ve been advertising just yet, but some drier air should begin
to filter in, shoving the 70 degree isodrosotherm from the
northern fringes of our forecast area all the way down to the
Gulf coast. The incoming air will only have dew points in the
upper half of the 60s, so it`s not a dramatic shift (yet) but I`ll
happily take any change in the environment at this point. With
the drier air and a clearing sky, we should see Friday night`s
temps also dip lower - more in the upper 60s and lower 70s rather
than the mid to upper 70s we have been getting.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
With the passage of the cold front, drier/quieter and maybe
slightly cooler weather will be on tap across SE TX for the
weekend. Clear to mostly clear skies will prevail with low
humidities and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows
should be in the 60s inland and 70s at the immediate coast.
However, by the start of next week, a deepening easterly flow at the
lower and mid levels will help with the return of POPs and increased
moisture. Will re-introduce low rain chances along the coast on Mon/
Mon night...with chances gradually increasing north into the rest of
the CWA for Tues/Weds. This developing pattern should be a lot like
the diurnal one we`ve been in of late - overnight/early morning act-
ivity along/near the coast spreading inland during the afternoon(s).
But on the plus side, daytime temperatures are progged to remain at/
just below normal for this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Another messy day for all terminals today, but again at the coast
for LBX and CXO in particular. A mix of IFR and MVFR early this
morning, with only modest improvement to MVFR conditions area-
wide. VCSH at the outset from SGR/HOU coastward, which will be the
focus for SHRA/TSRA through the day. From IAH northward, can
expect more scattered SHRA development in the afternoon. Not a ton
of confidence for lightning at/around the northern terminals, but
a favorable enough environment to conservatively put in VCTS or
TEMPO -TSRA for a small handful of afternoon lightning strikes. NE
winds across the area around or just above 10 knots persist, with
some afternoon gusts to around 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Will be continuing to monitor the area of unsettled weather in the
NW Gulf, currently situated off the Mid and Lower TX coast. Models
continue to move this system back into the Upper TX coastal waters
today and then further out to the east by Fri. So, periods of wide-
spread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue...but look
for the possibility of increasing winds/seas through today. Small
Craft Exercise Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories might be
needed for this afternoon/tonight. Mariners should closely monitor
the latest forecasts and observations should winds/seas increase a
bit more than currently forecast.
A cold front is still forecast to moves into the coastal waters by
Fri night with moderate to strong N/NE winds developing. So, Small
Craft Advisories may need to remain up through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 74 90 71 / 50 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 86 76 86 73 / 60 50 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 83 75 / 80 70 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ214-235>238-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...41
FXUS64 KHGX 051127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
The unsettled weather pattern of the last several days carries on
for at least one day more, but we should also get to see the first
signs of a transition in the weather pattern later on Friday or
Friday night. Until then, however, the threat for locally heavy
rainfall continues along the Gulf coast, with more isolated to
scattered rains expected farther inland. The highlights:
- A flood watch continues for the counties on the Gulf coast again
today, and remains in effect through at least early Friday
morning. This is also joined by another day at the coast with a
slight risk for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) from WPC.
- When traveling, especially so in the watch area, be alert to
weather and road conditions. While the environment to support
flooding rains is along the entire Gulf coast, actual flooding
will emerge in more localized spots where it rains the hardest,
for the longest, and where the rainwater drains the slowest.
Have multiple ways to receive any warnings, and have alternate
routes in mind that you can take if you come across any flooded
roadways!
- Patience will be rewarded. A cold front will make its way
through the area this weekend, ushering in a beginning to the
new week with fairer weather, and perhaps most importantly,
*drier* air. The effect of this front on daytime highs will be
modest, but we can expect low to nil rain chances, less
humidity, and noticeably cooler nights. Deeper into the new
week will bring some moderation once onshore flow returns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Another night, another radar scope full of showers and an
occasional, isolated thunderstorm out over the Gulf, threatening
to push into Southeast Texas later in the day. All expectations
are for another day with ample rain chances across Southeast
Texas, with the character being isolated to scattered showers and
storms well inland, becoming more numerous and widespread around
the coast and definitely out over the Gulf.
Behind the swath of rain offshore, though, are multiple
interesting features. At the mid-levels, there was earlier a very
apparent mid-level circulation over the Northwest Gulf, roughly
lining up with a mid-level low/vort max analyzed in numerical
guidance in that area. This feature has gotten a little harder to
see as convection has flourished over the last few hours, but
that`s not terribly surprising given this gives us a relative
height minimum, a vorticity advection maximum, all over the old
stalled frontal zone. Farther south, outside of our area, there is
a visible low-level circulation as well, which does show up nicely
in the objective SPC surface mesoanalysis as well. While
convection has not been blooming quite as significantly down here,
it is still active, and will be another place to watch while the
whole mess makes its way slowly up the coast.
Of course, with a mess of multiple focus points for convection,
and likely important mesoscale influences dueling across the
northwestern Gulf, we remain in a situation where I can pretty
confident make a broad-brush sketch of the next couple of days,
and very much hoping nobody asks very detailed questions about
specific locations and/or timing. I`m increasing confident
that...whatever it is...that drags across the region will be far
enough onshore, that we can really pin the potential for any
locally heavy rain very near the coast where precipitable water
values are progged to stick above 2.5 inches and we can expect
more numerous showers developing. Really, the highest potential
for heavy rains will be over the Gulf itself, but you can`t really
flood the Gulf. Instead, we`ll be looking to see where some of
those heavier rains bleed their way just onshore for localized
flooding concerns.
Farther inland, we`ll have a little less moisture available, and
more isolated to scattered shower and storm development. That`s
not to say there can`t be any heavier rain showers inland of the
coastal counties - PWATs are still around/above 2 inches, and any
stronger cells that do develop should be pretty efficient
rainmakers. But those cells will be more isolated, have low
training potential, and ultimately most locations will see less
intense rain showers (if anything at all) and lighter rainfall
totals.
Overnight tonight, expect rains to mostly pull back to the Gulf
and coastal regions, while showers come to an end farther inland
again, with lows only falling into the 70s area-wide. Tomorrow, we
begin the process again, but with greater question for rainfall
potential than the past several days. We`re really going to have
to see what - if any - features become dominant through today and
tonight, and where that ends up relative to the coast. Whatever
forces continued rain development is very likely to be offshore,
so the best rain chances will continue to be at the coast, and
also in the easternmost part of our forecast area, where we could
see rain development aided by moisture wrapped around Gulf low
pressure (emphasis on could).
Because of the uncertainty in just how rainy Friday will be
relative to earlier in the week, I`m opting to leave the end time
for the coastal flood watch at Friday morning. Should things set
up to favor a rainier day on Friday, we could extend that as late
as early Friday evening. I`ll leave the determination on that to
future shifts, as they should get some better confidence on the
important details determining when heavier rains will come to an
end.
Friday night will see a bit of a taste of the weather to be
discussed below in the long term. It won`t be the weekend front
we`ve been advertising just yet, but some drier air should begin
to filter in, shoving the 70 degree isodrosotherm from the
northern fringes of our forecast area all the way down to the
Gulf coast. The incoming air will only have dew points in the
upper half of the 60s, so it`s not a dramatic shift (yet) but I`ll
happily take any change in the environment at this point. With
the drier air and a clearing sky, we should see Friday night`s
temps also dip lower - more in the upper 60s and lower 70s rather
than the mid to upper 70s we have been getting.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
With the passage of the cold front, drier/quieter and maybe
slightly cooler weather will be on tap across SE TX for the
weekend. Clear to mostly clear skies will prevail with low
humidities and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows
should be in the 60s inland and 70s at the immediate coast.
However, by the start of next week, a deepening easterly flow at the
lower and mid levels will help with the return of POPs and increased
moisture. Will re-introduce low rain chances along the coast on Mon/
Mon night...with chances gradually increasing north into the rest of
the CWA for Tues/Weds. This developing pattern should be a lot like
the diurnal one we`ve been in of late - overnight/early morning act-
ivity along/near the coast spreading inland during the afternoon(s).
But on the plus side, daytime temperatures are progged to remain at/
just below normal for this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Another messy day for all terminals today, but again at the coast
for LBX and CXO in particular. A mix of IFR and MVFR early this
morning, with only modest improvement to MVFR conditions area-
wide. VCSH at the outset from SGR/HOU coastward, which will be the
focus for SHRA/TSRA through the day. From IAH northward, can
expect more scattered SHRA development in the afternoon. Not a ton
of confidence for lightning at/around the northern terminals, but
a favorable enough environment to conservatively put in VCTS or
TEMPO -TSRA for a small handful of afternoon lightning strikes. NE
winds across the area around or just above 10 knots persist, with
some afternoon gusts to around 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Will be continuing to monitor the area of unsettled weather in the
NW Gulf, currently situated off the Mid and Lower TX coast. Models
continue to move this system back into the Upper TX coastal waters
today and then further out to the east by Fri. So, periods of wide-
spread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue...but look
for the possibility of increasing winds/seas through today. Small
Craft Exercise Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories might be
needed for this afternoon/tonight. Mariners should closely monitor
the latest forecasts and observations should winds/seas increase a
bit more than currently forecast.
A cold front is still forecast to moves into the coastal waters by
Fri night with moderate to strong N/NE winds developing. So, Small
Craft Advisories may need to remain up through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 74 90 71 / 50 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 86 76 86 73 / 60 50 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 83 75 / 80 70 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ214-235>238-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...41
Lows temps next week on the iPhone app are a good 6-8 degrees warmer now than they were previously…
State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.
Not to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 9:54 am State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.
Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5084
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
The messy forecast continues this afternoon. Most of the rain is
hanging near GLS with a few showers in the vicinity of the other
southern terminals. Potential for TS this afternoon for terinals
generally south of I-10 and IAH. NE winds will be round 10-15kts
with gusts to above 20kts possible through this TAF period.
Additionally, CIGS will bounce between MVFR and IVF through the
period, with primarily IFR expected in the early morning hours.
Decreased VSBYs will also be possible.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024
The messy forecast continues this afternoon. Most of the rain is
hanging near GLS with a few showers in the vicinity of the other
southern terminals. Potential for TS this afternoon for terinals
generally south of I-10 and IAH. NE winds will be round 10-15kts
with gusts to above 20kts possible through this TAF period.
Additionally, CIGS will bounce between MVFR and IVF through the
period, with primarily IFR expected in the early morning hours.
Decreased VSBYs will also be possible.
I’ve had 3.4”. It can stop now. Go to your place and others who need it.869MB wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 11:22 amNot to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 9:54 am State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.
Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.
The drive to NOLA tomorrow is going to suck.
Interesting... Global models are in good agreement for now on invest 90L. And they show it meandering in the gulf and slowly developing into a weak TC before moving inland into the Texas coast as a trough picks it up early-mid next week. Could be a big rainmaker.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 968
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
My area has been under a nice off and on band for the past few hours now with over an inch and counting! Spring area
They claim it can be dealt with by just patching it. Nevermind I have exposed plywood where huge chunks of my shingles and underlayment are just gone.869MB wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 11:22 amCromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 9:54 am State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.
Not to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?
Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.
Lol they’re screwing you. We got a new roof last summer and said it was hail. No issues whatsoever.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 6:02 pmThey claim it can be dealt with by just patching it. Nevermind I have exposed plywood where huge chunks of my shingles and underlayment are just gone.869MB wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 11:22 amCromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 9:54 am State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.
Not to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?
Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.
We are probably going to have area-wide moderate to significant flooding next week if this pans out.don wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:18 pm Interesting... Global models are in good agreement for now on invest 90L. And they show it meandering in the gulf and slowly developing into a weak TC before moving inland into the Texas coast as a trough picks it up early-mid next week. Could be a big rainmaker.
I still think most of the rain goes into Louisiana and the Golden Triangle.don wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:18 pm Interesting... Global models are in good agreement for now on invest 90L. And they show it meandering in the gulf and slowly developing into a weak TC before moving inland into the Texas coast as a trough picks it up early-mid next week. Could be a big rainmaker.
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