Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024
...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
We are all incalculably fortunate that we had the factors in place to suppress tropical formation during most of August and September. Imagine the lineup of potential storm formation we see today (9/30/2024) 6-7 weeks earlier, as has been the norm in prior years.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Gulf remains a hot spot for potential activity while Kirk is likely to put on a show in the open Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on September 30, 2024
Headlines
Help continues to be needed in parts of Appalachia after Hurricane Helene. We have a first-hand account from a reader.
Potential tropical development this week in the Gulf continues to look a bit tricky and possibly sloppy. Interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue monitoring things through the week.
Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become one of the season's biggest storms in the open Atlantic this week, likely becoming a major hurricane far from land.
No other serious tropical concerns to watch right now.
I want to just share an email we received from a reader who was in Asheville during Helene. It's been tough to get a lot of great information out of this region because it's so difficult to access right now. That will change in the next couple days, and we will likely be seeing and hearing of even worse devastation that we've seen thus far.
Our reader emails:
We were vacationing in the Asheville, NC area and have seen the devastation personally. Your note (of) this on the website is accurate and honestly a source of nightmares. What readers should understand is what makes this different in the Asheville area than what we see in Texas (or Gulf) storms is two (maybe 3 by this time) dams breached flooding out many of the poorest areas in the valley in the most destructive manner possible. I hope your readers take note of your words and choose to contribute.
There are ways you can help those in need even if you live far from the impacted areas.
Blue Ridge NPR has a good list.
The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.
A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.
The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.
Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.
Crowdsource Rescue is another org we've directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.
The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they've been a friend to us in Houston too.
As disaster expert Samantha Montano noted last night on Twitter/X, we're probably looking at a 10 to 15 year recovery at least for this region. Every little bit of help matters.
A tricky Gulf forecast
The headline point today is that we continue to see decent odds that a tropical system will form in the Gulf later this week. But modeling remains extremely uncertain on track and intensity to a point where we may be looking at a sloppier setup than has been the case for much of this season.
With another disturbance poised to emerge from the Central American Gyre (CAG) formation, we will have another one to watch. As of today, it's just a mass of clouds and thunderstorms east of Nicaragua and north of Costa Rica and Panama.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a developing disturbance that will emerge from the Central American Gyre this week and stands a moderate chance at gradual development in the Gulf.
The NHC has actually lowered development odds versus yesterday, down from 50 percent to 40 percent. We can quibble on whatever those exact odds are, but I think the takeaway right now is that unlike Helene, this is not a slam dunk case where high-end development is highly likely. If anything, high-end development seems unlikely right now. But moderate development of something sloppy seems very plausible. Keep in mind that "sloppy" does not always translate to "good," as a disorganized system coming out of a very warm Caribbean can still carry a bountiful amount of moisture. So once more, we may have to discuss flooding risks later this week or weekend.
Since we don't yet have a defined disturbance, we have a bit of hand waviness going on in terms of forecasting. The models handled this element of Helene well early on, but they seem to be struggling with this one. That's not uncommon. CAG systems tend to be more challenging to predict than waves off Africa. Helene was an exception more than the rule.
GFS ensemble tracks from the 30 different ensemble members through day 5 (Friday night) for the Gulf disturbance shows a minority of members developing a robust system and a majority keeping it weak and mostly meandering across the Yucatan into the Gulf.
The current model guidance is sort of a mixed bag. I have the GFS shown above, with ensemble members ranging from well developed in the eastern Gulf (a minority) to poorly developed and hugging the Yucatan (a majority). This is sort of opposite of what we saw with Helene where the GFS ensemble led in showing aggressive development. This also has the support of the European AI (AIFS) model and the ICON model to a lesser extent.
There are a couple things that could happen here. If the system follows the minority, we get a tropical storm or hurricane that lifts north and northeast potentially across Florida at some point toward the weekend. Some rapid development couldn't be ruled out, but in general the ceiling would likely be lower than Helene. If the system follows the majority, it may fester for a time near or off the Yucatan and eventually get pushed north and east by an approaching cold front early next week. That would time the system toward Florida or the eastern Gulf next Monday through Wednesday. That could also be a tropical storm or hurricane.
The potential for heavy rain across Florida is in the forecast over the next week, though the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is up for debate.
For now, we should expect an increase in rain chances and potentially heavy rain heading toward the weekend across the eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida. But details are highly uncertain right now. We'll keep on top of things.
Kirk will light up the open Atlantic
Tropical Depression 12 has become Tropical Storm Kirk this morning. Kirk is expected to become a major fish storm. In other words, it should avoid land.
Tropical Storm Kirk should rapidly intensify into a major hurricane this week, possibly becoming a category 4 storm over the open Atlantic.
Kirk is expected to intensify rapidly. The NHC forecast currently shows it as a category 3 or borderline category 4 hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday. Model guidance even shows that Kirk could become a higher end category 4 or even 5 storm if all the right ingredients came together. Again, thankfully Kirk's forecast is fairly predictable and it will avoid land. Most shipping interests should also have ample time to get out of Kirk's way. Kirk will also probably help Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to make up some lost ground.
Isaac & Joyce
Both Isaac and Joyce have now degenerated into depressions or post-tropical cyclones. Isaac looks to continue to get absorbed into a broader European storm later this week.
Another deep Atlantic system to come?
Model signals continue to indicate that yet another system could develop behind Kirk in the deep Atlantic. This one looks more likely to take a slightly farther south and west track, as it would likely be slower to organize, so it may merit some additional babysitting for the islands heading into next week. For now, it's not a serious concern.
Site logo image The Eyewall
Gulf remains a hot spot for potential activity while Kirk is likely to put on a show in the open Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on September 30, 2024
Headlines
Help continues to be needed in parts of Appalachia after Hurricane Helene. We have a first-hand account from a reader.
Potential tropical development this week in the Gulf continues to look a bit tricky and possibly sloppy. Interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue monitoring things through the week.
Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become one of the season's biggest storms in the open Atlantic this week, likely becoming a major hurricane far from land.
No other serious tropical concerns to watch right now.
I want to just share an email we received from a reader who was in Asheville during Helene. It's been tough to get a lot of great information out of this region because it's so difficult to access right now. That will change in the next couple days, and we will likely be seeing and hearing of even worse devastation that we've seen thus far.
Our reader emails:
We were vacationing in the Asheville, NC area and have seen the devastation personally. Your note (of) this on the website is accurate and honestly a source of nightmares. What readers should understand is what makes this different in the Asheville area than what we see in Texas (or Gulf) storms is two (maybe 3 by this time) dams breached flooding out many of the poorest areas in the valley in the most destructive manner possible. I hope your readers take note of your words and choose to contribute.
There are ways you can help those in need even if you live far from the impacted areas.
Blue Ridge NPR has a good list.
The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.
A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.
The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.
Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.
Crowdsource Rescue is another org we've directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.
The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they've been a friend to us in Houston too.
As disaster expert Samantha Montano noted last night on Twitter/X, we're probably looking at a 10 to 15 year recovery at least for this region. Every little bit of help matters.
A tricky Gulf forecast
The headline point today is that we continue to see decent odds that a tropical system will form in the Gulf later this week. But modeling remains extremely uncertain on track and intensity to a point where we may be looking at a sloppier setup than has been the case for much of this season.
With another disturbance poised to emerge from the Central American Gyre (CAG) formation, we will have another one to watch. As of today, it's just a mass of clouds and thunderstorms east of Nicaragua and north of Costa Rica and Panama.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a developing disturbance that will emerge from the Central American Gyre this week and stands a moderate chance at gradual development in the Gulf.
The NHC has actually lowered development odds versus yesterday, down from 50 percent to 40 percent. We can quibble on whatever those exact odds are, but I think the takeaway right now is that unlike Helene, this is not a slam dunk case where high-end development is highly likely. If anything, high-end development seems unlikely right now. But moderate development of something sloppy seems very plausible. Keep in mind that "sloppy" does not always translate to "good," as a disorganized system coming out of a very warm Caribbean can still carry a bountiful amount of moisture. So once more, we may have to discuss flooding risks later this week or weekend.
Since we don't yet have a defined disturbance, we have a bit of hand waviness going on in terms of forecasting. The models handled this element of Helene well early on, but they seem to be struggling with this one. That's not uncommon. CAG systems tend to be more challenging to predict than waves off Africa. Helene was an exception more than the rule.
GFS ensemble tracks from the 30 different ensemble members through day 5 (Friday night) for the Gulf disturbance shows a minority of members developing a robust system and a majority keeping it weak and mostly meandering across the Yucatan into the Gulf.
The current model guidance is sort of a mixed bag. I have the GFS shown above, with ensemble members ranging from well developed in the eastern Gulf (a minority) to poorly developed and hugging the Yucatan (a majority). This is sort of opposite of what we saw with Helene where the GFS ensemble led in showing aggressive development. This also has the support of the European AI (AIFS) model and the ICON model to a lesser extent.
There are a couple things that could happen here. If the system follows the minority, we get a tropical storm or hurricane that lifts north and northeast potentially across Florida at some point toward the weekend. Some rapid development couldn't be ruled out, but in general the ceiling would likely be lower than Helene. If the system follows the majority, it may fester for a time near or off the Yucatan and eventually get pushed north and east by an approaching cold front early next week. That would time the system toward Florida or the eastern Gulf next Monday through Wednesday. That could also be a tropical storm or hurricane.
The potential for heavy rain across Florida is in the forecast over the next week, though the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is up for debate.
For now, we should expect an increase in rain chances and potentially heavy rain heading toward the weekend across the eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida. But details are highly uncertain right now. We'll keep on top of things.
Kirk will light up the open Atlantic
Tropical Depression 12 has become Tropical Storm Kirk this morning. Kirk is expected to become a major fish storm. In other words, it should avoid land.
Tropical Storm Kirk should rapidly intensify into a major hurricane this week, possibly becoming a category 4 storm over the open Atlantic.
Kirk is expected to intensify rapidly. The NHC forecast currently shows it as a category 3 or borderline category 4 hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday. Model guidance even shows that Kirk could become a higher end category 4 or even 5 storm if all the right ingredients came together. Again, thankfully Kirk's forecast is fairly predictable and it will avoid land. Most shipping interests should also have ample time to get out of Kirk's way. Kirk will also probably help Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to make up some lost ground.
Isaac & Joyce
Both Isaac and Joyce have now degenerated into depressions or post-tropical cyclones. Isaac looks to continue to get absorbed into a broader European storm later this week.
Another deep Atlantic system to come?
Model signals continue to indicate that yet another system could develop behind Kirk in the deep Atlantic. This one looks more likely to take a slightly farther south and west track, as it would likely be slower to organize, so it may merit some additional babysitting for the islands heading into next week. For now, it's not a serious concern.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a
few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a
few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
We now have Invest 91L
AL, 91, 2024093018, , BEST, 0, 101N, 241W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al732024 to al912024,
AL, 91, 2024093018, , BEST, 0, 101N, 241W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al732024 to al912024,
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxman 57s thoughts on this
6Z ICON has a weak frontal low over the south-central Gulf Saturday night. It has a moderate cold front moving south across the northern Gulf. Nothing like the 06Z run. Models are all trending away from any significant tropical development in favor of two cold fronts - one tonight and one on Saturday - moving out into the Gulf. Tropical development chances are decreasing.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxman 57s thoughts on this
6Z ICON has a weak frontal low over the south-central Gulf Saturday night. It has a moderate cold front moving south across the northern Gulf. Nothing like the 06Z run. Models are all trending away from any significant tropical development in favor of two cold fronts - one tonight and one on Saturday - moving out into the Gulf. Tropical development chances are decreasing.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Gulf development chances stagnate some but remain worth monitoring as Kirk revs up in the open Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on October 1, 2024
Headlines
Helene help continues to be desperately needed.
Gulf development odds have stalled somewhat, but development of a sloppy system tracking east or northeast in the Gulf this weekend or next week seems plausible.
The main concern we currently have is potential for heavy rain in Florida.
Tropical Storm Kirk should become a hurricane in the next day, while Invest 91L may become a depression or Tropical Storm Leslie by tomorrow or Thursday. Neither are currently expected to impact land.
Helene latest
As communication slowly gets restored to affected areas from Hurricane Helene, we are beginning to get a sense of the scope of the disaster and the horrific details of loss and survival. The toll will likely get worse before it gets better. And we continue to encourage folks to contribute to organizations helping directly with the recovery efforts. Our list from yesterday:
Blue Ridge NPR has a good list. (many locally based resources on this list and other orgs, such as Samaritan's Purse)
The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.
A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.
World Central Kitchen is on the ground there also, serving up meals.
The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.
Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.
Crowdsource Rescue is another org we’ve directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.
The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they’ve been a friend to us in Houston too.
Gulf development odds stall a bit
Now for some good news, I guess. Development odds over the next week or so in the Gulf have stalled a bit, or at least stagnated some. The NHC map is at 40 percent this morning, same as it was yesterday.
Odds of development remain moderate for the Gulf over the next week.
Keep in mind that the orange hatched area above indicates *where* development could occur, not where the system is expected to track. There's not a whole lot to look at this morning, as any disturbance is very nascent and poorly organized. Over the next couple days, this will migrate northward and perhaps get slightly better organized. Various models depict various solutions, including the possibility that additional areas of disturbed weather enter the picture as well. Overall, the picture looks sloppy.
Tropical development may emerge from disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean, as it comes northward.
It's worth noting for those extra concerned that this looks nothing at all like Helene did at this point in its life cycle. So this is why we continue to think that things are likely to be much sloppier and a bit lower end on the intensity scale as this gets moving.
The model solutions really do range from a more organized system to even 2 organized systems to just a "blob" of moisture that tracks northwest, then north, then northeast or even east-northeast across the Gulf, generally toward Florida. Some even sort of stall it out over the open Gulf, sort of like we saw last month off Texas where an undeveloped system sat and festered for a while before Francine emerged from the slop after a week or two. If you look at the GFS ensemble in particular, it shows a whole slew of options.
The 30 member GFS ensemble shows a number of possible solutions ranging from low-end hurricane to tropical storm to depression or less. In general, this would track northeast or east-northeast toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast.
Again, this is much different than how things looked ahead of Helene. Given the idea of a sloppy system, a front in the vicinity early next week, and a somewhat disorganized initial disturbance, all this leads me to think that a messy rainmaker may be on tap for the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida this weekend and next week. Indeed, the rainfall forecast in Florida is solid. For now, serious flooding isn't expected, but continue to watch this and monitor its progress in the coming days. I think it's obvious that this one is going to be of lower predictability than Helene was. But also hopefully lower risk as well.
Rainfall over the next week will be highest on the Gulf Coast of Florida and across Central Florida.
Kirk gaining momentum, and Invest 91L may develop behind it
Tropical Storm Kirk is on the precipice of hurricane intensity this afternoon, as it is a 70 mph tropical storm. Kirk is still expected to remain safely out at sea.
Tropical Storm Kirk is gaining momentum while fighting off some residual shear today.
Kirk should intensify steadily over the coming days, peaking as at least a category 3 and possibly category 4 storm over the open Atlantic later this week. Expect to see some pretty stunning satellite imagery at some point. Again, thankfully, Kirk will avoid land.
Behind Kirk, we do have a second area, Invest 91L. This one is close to developing as well. Over the coming days, this will take a track generally south and west of Kirk's track. This should still keep it out at sea, but we'll continue to watch this one closely in case it can manage to brush the islands eventually.
Invest 91L has a bit of a wide spread of possibilities. A weaker storm would probably track on the south side of that forecast envelope, while a stronger one would lean to the north. For now, it's expected to stay out at sea too.
That's all we've got for now. We will likely see some additional Pacific systems later this week as well. None at this point look to threaten land for now. More to come!
Site logo image The Eyewall
Gulf development chances stagnate some but remain worth monitoring as Kirk revs up in the open Atlantic
By Matt Lanza on October 1, 2024
Headlines
Helene help continues to be desperately needed.
Gulf development odds have stalled somewhat, but development of a sloppy system tracking east or northeast in the Gulf this weekend or next week seems plausible.
The main concern we currently have is potential for heavy rain in Florida.
Tropical Storm Kirk should become a hurricane in the next day, while Invest 91L may become a depression or Tropical Storm Leslie by tomorrow or Thursday. Neither are currently expected to impact land.
Helene latest
As communication slowly gets restored to affected areas from Hurricane Helene, we are beginning to get a sense of the scope of the disaster and the horrific details of loss and survival. The toll will likely get worse before it gets better. And we continue to encourage folks to contribute to organizations helping directly with the recovery efforts. Our list from yesterday:
Blue Ridge NPR has a good list. (many locally based resources on this list and other orgs, such as Samaritan's Purse)
The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.
A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.
World Central Kitchen is on the ground there also, serving up meals.
The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.
Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.
Crowdsource Rescue is another org we’ve directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.
The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they’ve been a friend to us in Houston too.
Gulf development odds stall a bit
Now for some good news, I guess. Development odds over the next week or so in the Gulf have stalled a bit, or at least stagnated some. The NHC map is at 40 percent this morning, same as it was yesterday.
Odds of development remain moderate for the Gulf over the next week.
Keep in mind that the orange hatched area above indicates *where* development could occur, not where the system is expected to track. There's not a whole lot to look at this morning, as any disturbance is very nascent and poorly organized. Over the next couple days, this will migrate northward and perhaps get slightly better organized. Various models depict various solutions, including the possibility that additional areas of disturbed weather enter the picture as well. Overall, the picture looks sloppy.
Tropical development may emerge from disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean, as it comes northward.
It's worth noting for those extra concerned that this looks nothing at all like Helene did at this point in its life cycle. So this is why we continue to think that things are likely to be much sloppier and a bit lower end on the intensity scale as this gets moving.
The model solutions really do range from a more organized system to even 2 organized systems to just a "blob" of moisture that tracks northwest, then north, then northeast or even east-northeast across the Gulf, generally toward Florida. Some even sort of stall it out over the open Gulf, sort of like we saw last month off Texas where an undeveloped system sat and festered for a while before Francine emerged from the slop after a week or two. If you look at the GFS ensemble in particular, it shows a whole slew of options.
The 30 member GFS ensemble shows a number of possible solutions ranging from low-end hurricane to tropical storm to depression or less. In general, this would track northeast or east-northeast toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast.
Again, this is much different than how things looked ahead of Helene. Given the idea of a sloppy system, a front in the vicinity early next week, and a somewhat disorganized initial disturbance, all this leads me to think that a messy rainmaker may be on tap for the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida this weekend and next week. Indeed, the rainfall forecast in Florida is solid. For now, serious flooding isn't expected, but continue to watch this and monitor its progress in the coming days. I think it's obvious that this one is going to be of lower predictability than Helene was. But also hopefully lower risk as well.
Rainfall over the next week will be highest on the Gulf Coast of Florida and across Central Florida.
Kirk gaining momentum, and Invest 91L may develop behind it
Tropical Storm Kirk is on the precipice of hurricane intensity this afternoon, as it is a 70 mph tropical storm. Kirk is still expected to remain safely out at sea.
Tropical Storm Kirk is gaining momentum while fighting off some residual shear today.
Kirk should intensify steadily over the coming days, peaking as at least a category 3 and possibly category 4 storm over the open Atlantic later this week. Expect to see some pretty stunning satellite imagery at some point. Again, thankfully, Kirk will avoid land.
Behind Kirk, we do have a second area, Invest 91L. This one is close to developing as well. Over the coming days, this will take a track generally south and west of Kirk's track. This should still keep it out at sea, but we'll continue to watch this one closely in case it can manage to brush the islands eventually.
Invest 91L has a bit of a wide spread of possibilities. A weaker storm would probably track on the south side of that forecast envelope, while a stronger one would lean to the north. For now, it's expected to stay out at sea too.
That's all we've got for now. We will likely see some additional Pacific systems later this week as well. None at this point look to threaten land for now. More to come!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxman 57s thoughts on this
All models are in good agreement on a low forming on the cold front in the SW Gulf this weekend. Even the GFS has come to its senses after yesterday's 18Z run. Models indicate a double low structure - one in the central Gulf and another in the BoC Sunday/Monday. Wind offshore Louisiana and across much of the northern Gulf NE-ENE 25-30 mph. It doesn't look like the low will be tropical, but I wouldn't rule out the NHC calling it a subtropical depression or storm. Bottom line is that no matter how its officially classified, the impacts will be the same. Windy, rough conditions across the Gulf through early next week and some rain for south Florida by Tuesday.
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxman 57s thoughts on this
All models are in good agreement on a low forming on the cold front in the SW Gulf this weekend. Even the GFS has come to its senses after yesterday's 18Z run. Models indicate a double low structure - one in the central Gulf and another in the BoC Sunday/Monday. Wind offshore Louisiana and across much of the northern Gulf NE-ENE 25-30 mph. It doesn't look like the low will be tropical, but I wouldn't rule out the NHC calling it a subtropical depression or storm. Bottom line is that no matter how its officially classified, the impacts will be the same. Windy, rough conditions across the Gulf through early next week and some rain for south Florida by Tuesday.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized areas of
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance
moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf
Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next several days and over portions
of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxmans thoughts...
Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.
A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized areas of
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance
moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf
Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next several days and over portions
of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Wxmans thoughts...
Still looks like only a frontal low. NE wind offshore 25-35 mph Sun-Tue. No wind inland. Some rain for south FL.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Tropical Depression 13 has formed & is forecast to become a #hurricane on 5 October at ~36°W. If it does, it would break old record (just set by Kirk at ~40°W) for farthest east an Atlantic hurricane has formed in tropics this late in calendar year in satellite era (since 1966) pic.twitter.com/8S0ErMFp6g
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 2, 2024
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 2, 2024
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 040844
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a
faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue
through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
WTNT32 KNHC 040844
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a
faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue
through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5189
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
-
tireman4
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- Posts: 5189
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Gulf tropical development odds on the increase again with at least a heavy rain event coming to Florida
By Matt Lanza on October 4, 2024
Headlines
Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
It's too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness
We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don't know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.
A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11's remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend.
The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.
European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)
Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there's still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.
Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.
An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf.
Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.
Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up
Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.
Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks.
Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.
Meanwhile, to Kirk's southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it'll be a healthy storm soon.
Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week.
Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.
By Matt Lanza on October 4, 2024
Headlines
Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
It's too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness
We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don't know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.
A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11's remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend.
The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.
European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)
Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there's still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.
Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.
An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf.
Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.
Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up
Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.
Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks.
Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.
Meanwhile, to Kirk's southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it'll be a healthy storm soon.
Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week.
Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.
Milton looks like it will ride an old front to Sarasota and I-4 to Daytona.
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