October 2024

[Ptarmigan]

Precipitation and Temperature Outlook

Yuck!

[DoctorMu]

Precipitation and Temperature Outlook

Hung out to dry until about the 15th. Most Likely.

but...This weekend's fake front could draw or repel the gyre which could take over anywhere or everywhere in the Gulf.

[tireman4]

432
FXUS64 KHGX 021205
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Relatively benign weather will continue over the next several days
as surface high pressure centered over the Central Plains continues
to promote an easterly surface flow pattern. While moisture values
will be on an increasing trend as NE winds veer to the E/ESE,
rainfall chances over land remain very limited given the presence of
a well-defined inversion near 850mb in the most recent forecast
soundings. Some rainfall is still possible offshore, where the
presence of a weak but nonetheless present midlevel low over the
Western Gulf could help trigger a few scattered storms. For
Wednesday, we continue to run slightly above normal with
temperatures as highs reach the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s
closer to the coast. Overnight lows will continue to sit in the 70s
along the coast / Houston Metro and the upper 60s elsewhere.

The aforementioned midlevel low will begin to lift northeastward on
Thursday, beginning a gradual increasing trend in rainfall chances
that will peak over the weekend. While most scattered storms will
remain offshore, an isolated storm or two for the immediate coast /
barrier islands can`t totally be ruled out either. The advance of
this feature, along with increasing moisture due to the transition
to east winds, will also drive an increase in cloud cover on
Thursday night. As a whole, little change to the temperature
forecast is expected from Wednesday.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

As we arrive at the end of the work week, chances for
showers/storms continue to increase as a trough approaches the
coast. This will keep PW values generally in the 1.7-2.0" range
south of I-10 through the weekend, so this is where we`ll see the
higher end of the rain chances. Interestingly, there are some
indications on a weak upper level low developing in northeastern
Mexico late Friday into Saturday, which would provide us with
plenty of PVA from passing shortwaves. This combined with speed
divergence from a jet streak on the downstream side of an upper
level trough over the Southern Plains will help generate decent
coverage of showers/storms on Saturday. The elevated rain chances
do offer us an albeit brief reprieve from the heat from our third
round of summer. High temperatures on Friday and Sunday look to be
mainly in the low 90s, but on our rainy day (Saturday) we`re
expecting high temperatures to top out in the 80s. It isn`t much,
but it`ll be nice to be at least NEAR seasonal for October rather
than feeling seasonal for August.

While we`re on the topic of temperatures, let`s chat about next
week`s cold front! Model guidance is still in good agreement on
surface low pressure and its parent upper level trough tracking
through the Great Lakes region. This is expected to bring the
tail-end of a cold front into Southeast Texas early next week.
Timing is still tricky this far out, but between yesterday`s and
today`s model runs...things are still pointing towards a late
Monday/early Tuesday FROPA. The cold front would bring an end to
the rain chances as it filters in cooler and drier air to the
region. Since this is still about a week away, I don`t wanna get
into any deterministic numbers just yet since things could
change...but this is a great opportunity to look at it in a
probabilistic manner. Over the weekend, the probabilities for
temperatures below 70F are around 15-30%. Early next week, this
increases to 70-90% on Monday night and 90+% on Tuesday/Wednesday
nights. Just for giggles, I decided to check the probabilities for
temperatures below 60F too! Those probabilities are 0% over the
weekend, but increases to 15-30% on Monday night and 30-50% on
Tuesday/Wednesday nights. The numbers are currently in our
favor, and let`s hope they stay that way because I`m ready for
hoodie season! Mother Nature pls...

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with any
lingering patchy fog diminishing after sunrise. Expect light NE
winds to transition to the E over the course of the afternoon. A
few scattered clouds around 5000ft will be possible. Winds return
to light and variable overnight tonight. Any shower/storm
development should occur well offshore for the time being.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Northeasterly winds will gradually increase through the afternoon
with wind speeds approaching the caution flag threshold in the Gulf
waters. Expect occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly winds
to continue through the weekend along with building seas. Conditions
may warrant small craft to exercise caution at times. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase towards the end of the week
and through the weekend as a trough sits near the coast. A cold
front looks to push offshore early next week bringing a period of
drier conditions in its wake.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 67 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 76 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste

[tireman4]

669
FXUS64 KHGX 022020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

The warmer than normal temperature regime continues this afternoon with
bright sunshine and temperatures in the low/mid 90s. Fortunately, dew
points have mixed down into the 60s (50s in some cases). So the humidity
isn`t so bad for SE Texas standards. Rural areas are expected to drop into
the 60s tonight, while coastal locations and urban areas remain in the 70s.
Tomorrow will be similar but with a few differences. Synoptically speaking,
sfc high pressure situated to our north will continue its eastward
progression while a weak trough in the Gulf pushes westward. Current blend
used for our dew point grids indicates higher humidity near the coast
tomorrow afternoon. The trough, currently over the central Gulf, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It may be close enough
to the Texas Coast tomorrow night to bring a few coastal showers. However,
the best chance of showers and storms tomorrow night will remain offshore.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

By Friday, the coastal trof and associated higher moisture axis
in the Gulf should be making its way toward the Texas coastal
waters. As such, one could anticipate more a bit more cloud cover
along with some scattered showers and isolated tstms along/south
of the I-10 corridor (higher coverage in the Gulf waters).

Same general set-up is expected over the weekend with the trof
making some further wwd progress. Things look somewhat wet again
on Saturday, esp south of I-10...but some locations a bit further
inland could see some isolated activity as weak upper impulses
also move overhead. By Sunday, the higher PW axis sinks a little
further south closer to the beaches and offshore.

Monday, we`ll see surface high pressure moving sewd from the
Midwest toward the TN Valley. We should se the tail end of its
leading front sags into and through the region Monday and Monday
night. A more seasonable airmass will filter into the region in
its wake. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

VFR vis/cigs to prevail through the TAF period. However, cannot
rule out isolated FG tomorrow morning. Winds will be east to
east-northeast this afternoon. Occasional gusts over 15 knots are
likely. Winds to become light and variable this evening into
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Coastal trough stretching from the Bay of Campeche to the ncntl
Gulf Coast will continue to slowly move toward the western Gulf
Coast and Tx as we head into the weekend. Look for steady
northeast winds and increasing rain chances as this occurs. Winds
may intermittently reach the 15-20kt range in the Gulf waters and
caution flags may be needed at times. Otherwise, a cool front
should make its way into the waters Monday night and nudge the
unsettled wx further sewd back into the scntl Gulf during the
early and midweek period. That said, a decent pressure gradient
will remain in place and moderate northeast winds and elevated
seas will likely persist. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 88 76 87 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Rain chances on Saturday lowered to 30% now.

The drought continues…

[Ptarmigan]

Rain chances on Saturday lowered to 30% now.

The drought continues…

Not liking this drought one bit.

[Pas_Bon]

Rain chances are now 20% for League City Saturday. Dangit!

[jasons2k]

Rain chances are now 20% for League City Saturday. Dangit!

Same here. Pretty much no hope left at this point for some relief this weekend. This is already ridiculous and it’s just getting started. The dry pattern here really started back in June. Beryl was an anomaly and even that wasn’t all that much.

[DoctorMu]

Yep. The Fake front this weekend will only desiccate the plants and grass more. I have to grab a bag of Fungicide this afternoon and start (pre)treating.

70°F DP and 90s on October is just so wrong. Yet we see more and more of it.

I don't see lows in the 50s in my forecast. Hopefully in another week.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Warm and relatively drier conditions will continue over the course
of the day on Thursday, with the synoptic pattern remaining similar
to that of the past several days. Over the past 24 hours or so,
we`ve seen a gradual eastward push of a robust surface high over the
Central Plains towards the Great Lakes region, which in turn has
allowed for the redevelopment of a more east/southeasterly flow
pattern over SE TX. As such, slight increases in low-level moisture
can be expected both today and tomorrow, with surface dew points
climbing a few degrees across the board. Highs today will once again
reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s closer to the coast,
while lows will remain in the 60s north of the Houston metro, the
low 70s in the metro area/closer to the coast, and the upper 70s
along the immediate coast.

Despite the better moisture availability, today should remain
largely rain-free aside from the chance of a few showers and storms
well offshore. The prospect of rainfall will increase slightly
heading into Friday as an upper low situates itself to our SW,
centered just south of the Rio Grande. The approach of this feature,
along with onshore flow providing additional moisture, will help
invigorate a few scattered storms closer to the coast on Friday. The
high temperature outlook for Friday remains largely unchanged with
highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. Low temperatures will rise a couple
of degrees given the return to a more pronounced onshore flow
pattern.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Our best chances for rain during the forecast period comes on
Saturday as a trough makes its closest approach to the Upper Texas
coast. This will cause PW values to surge to 1.6-2.1" near and south
of I-10 (90th percentile: ~1.92"). Combine the increase in moisture
with plenty of PVA from a weak upper level low in northeastern
Mexico and speed divergence from a jet streak downstream of
Southeast Texas on the east side of an upper level trough, and we
have plenty of favorable dynamics for scattered showers/storms. The
higher end of the rain chances will be south of I-10 closer to the
coast, but we could see some rainfall push further inland especially
on Saturday afternoon. With increased rain chances comes decreased
temperatures as high temperatures on Saturday will only top out in
the upper 80s/low 90s (mid 80s along the coast). The elevated
moisture begins to retreat southward going into Sunday as the upper
level trough gradually nudges eastward leading to decreasing rain
chances and increasing temperatures going into early next week. High
temperatures on Sunday will top out in the low 90s followed by high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Monday.

We`re still looking at a FROPA late Monday/early Tuesday that will
usher in drier air. This`ll be a rather shallow cooler airmass, so
we`re still going to see daytime temperatures in the 80s/90s with
850mb temperatures remaining around the 90th percentile (GEFS).
Drier air heats efficiently ya know! We`re also only going to
catch the tail-end of this cold front as the parent surface low
will be well into Canada. With dew points dropping into the
40s/50s and PW values dropping to near or below the 10th
percentile (~0.77") though, we`ll see some cool temperatures
overnight as radiational cooling works its magic. In the first few
nights following FROPA, low temperatures are expected to be in
the 50s/60s...but those 50s don`t look like they`ll make it much
further than the Brazos Valley. Nevertheless, it`s still going to
feel very pleasant outside no matter where you are in the wake of
the front.

Batiste

[DoctorMu]

Dayum. 90s for highs through the middle of the month. Ugh.

[DoctorMu]

Rain chances are now 20% for League City Saturday. Dangit!

Same here. Pretty much no hope left at this point for some relief this weekend. This is already ridiculous and it’s just getting started. The dry pattern here really started back in June. Beryl was an anomaly and even that wasn’t all that much.

We were spoiled. 10 inches of rain in July. But not much since then.

It's going to average warmer for highs in the first half of October than July in CLL. Epic fail.

[Stratton20]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

[Pas_Bon]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

Yeah, the models have been remarkably consistent with a big (lows in 50's-ish) cooldown around 10/15-10/16

[Cpv17]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

Good luck.

[DoctorMu]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

Yeah, the models have been remarkably consistent with a big (lows in 50's-ish) cooldown around 10/15-10/16

That mid October FROPA forecast hasn't changed in a week.

What has changed is our rain chances for Saturday. Poof - they're gone.

[DoctorMu]

I now dub this area Texarakis after the spice filled desert planet in Dune. I have plenty of Ancho chiles, Ancho power, Chipotle, Arbol, and Guajillo peppers.

[869MB]

Unfortunately, it appears my post from December 2023 was pretty accurate, for the most part, at least up to this point in time...

WX INFINITY POST - MONDAY - DECEMBER 18 2023 - 0127.png (353.46 KiB) Viewed 1131 times

[Pas_Bon]

Aside from a healthy smattering of rain in July and early August, this has been yet another dry-as-bones summer. Better than last year, but this drought stuff is really starting to take a toll on our vegetation. I’d surmise at this rate, our kids’ generation will see the climate here transition to an arid one. Sheesh.

[Cpv17]

GFS/CMC/ EURO all agree on some cooler weather heading into next weekend, rain still looks iffy though

Yeah, the models have been remarkably consistent with a big (lows in 50's-ish) cooldown around 10/15-10/16

That mid October FROPA forecast hasn't changed in a week.

What has changed is our rain chances for Saturday. Poof - they're gone.

I see nothing but above average temps for the next two weeks except along the EC.

[tireman4]

883
FXUS64 KHGX 041132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A broad elongated coastal trough over the south central Gulf is ex-
pected to gradually strengthen and drift E/NE through this weekend.
This pattern will allow for bands of showers (and isolated thunder-
storms) to develop/move into our marine waters and coastal counties
these next couple of days...as evident by the activity so far early
this morning. The best POPs are going to be along/south of the I-10
corridor today...with these chances likely persisting into tomorrow
afternoon. Much of this activity will be fueled by elevated PWs (up
to 2"), continued above normal daytime temperatures and a favorable
upper jet pattern. Otherwise, for areas north of the I-10 corridor,
warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected starting today.

As for temperatures, highs today and tomorrow should range from the
mid and upper 80s across southern/coastal locations...lower 90s for
central and northern CWA. Lows will run from the upper 60s over the
northern counties to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere tonight and to-
morrow night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Rain chances will diminish on Sunday as the prevailing mid/upper
level low drifts to the south, thereby confining any showers and
storms to location well offshore. Conditions through the end of
the weekend and into Monday remain otherwise warm and humid as the
synoptic pattern is dominated by a weak midlevel ridge. This
should keep high temperatures on both Sunday and Monday above
seasonal normals, with afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 90s
inland and the upper 80s along the immediate coast. Overnight lows
will generally drop into the lower to mid 70s. By late Monday,
the surface wind will shift to the NE as a broad area of high
pressure tracks eastward into the Central Plains.

A pattern shift arrives during the early hours of Tuesday as a
frontal boundary associated with a surface low over the Northern
Great Lakes pushes into the area, bringing with it a shift to
moderate northeast winds and an intrusion of slightly cooler but
significantly drier air. While highs will continue to hover near
the 90 degree mark for most of the area on Tuesday afternoon, we
should see dew points reaching as low as the upper 40s. A few
gustier winds in the vicinity of 15-20 mph are possible in the
wake of the frontal passage, particularly along the immediate
coast. Limited instability ahead of the front will inhibit any
associated convection with its passage.

Drier and generally pleasant conditions will close out the week as
surface high pressure remains prominently in place over the
central CONUS. Expect highs to remain in the upper 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to 60s. By Thursday, weak onshore flow resumes as
the aforementioned surface high shifts to the east. With moist
advection remaining weak, however, increases in low-level moisture
will not return in earnest until the end of next weekend at the
very earliest.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Rain chances (VCSH for the most part) and lower CIGS (MVFR) should be
confined to sites along and south of the I-10 corridor (from HOU down
to the GLS) through mid morning or so. But, VCSH could linger for the
terminals through the day. NE/E winds 6-12kts will develop this after-
noon with gusts up to 20kts. Speed should decrease by this evening as
rain chances pick up once again during the overnight hours. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Moderate east winds will remain in place for the next few days.
Scattered showers and storms will develop over the course of the
weekend as a weak coastal trough develops offshore. Caution flags
are in effect, and a Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out on
Saturday and Sunday as winds may approach 20 knots at times. The
arrival of a front early on Tuesday will result in a shift to
moderate offshore winds as well as a reduction of rain chances.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 70 92 69 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 84 77 / 40 40 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady