June 2025
After looking at the HRRR and excessive rainfall maps presented last night i was a bit surprised to see the radar look how it looked this morning when i woke up. .32 in Cypress with just light rain with a few rumbles of thunder off in the distance. The coastal counties really got some heavy rains and it looks like the next round is about to push through.
Some streets are beginning to flood in Alvin. Hwy 35 is flooded and closed at the railroad overpass.
Friend in Matagorda County sent me video of water getting into homes. Next round will be a gut punch.
Stay safe out there, y'all.
Friend in Matagorda County sent me video of water getting into homes. Next round will be a gut punch.
Stay safe out there, y'all.
Any maps you can share that show the expected area rainfall amounts?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6210
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Road Problems ( via Jeff Lindner Facebook)
Additional road problems being reported are:
CR 213 KAACK RD OFF OF FM 457 // IS PASSABLE
FM 142 AND FM 457 // PASSABLE
FM 457 AND FM 2540 // UNDER WATER, TRUCK CAN PASS THROUGH
HWY 60 AND FM 521 WADSWORTH // PASSABLE
FM 2540 S AT BATES ROAD AND SIMS RD // HIGH WATER
FM 521 EAST AFTER THE RAILROAD TRACKS WADSWORTH // PASSABLE
HWY 60 SOUTH OF LYONDELL // NORTHBOUND LANE UNDERWATER
BUCKS BAYOU AND MORNING DOVE IS NOT PASSABLE // TRINITY GRASS FARM
HWY 60 S AND FM 2078// PASSABLE
FM 1862 SOUTHBOUND BLESSING // CLOSED
This is NOT a complete list, this is what has been reported.
Additional road problems being reported are:
CR 213 KAACK RD OFF OF FM 457 // IS PASSABLE
FM 142 AND FM 457 // PASSABLE
FM 457 AND FM 2540 // UNDER WATER, TRUCK CAN PASS THROUGH
HWY 60 AND FM 521 WADSWORTH // PASSABLE
FM 2540 S AT BATES ROAD AND SIMS RD // HIGH WATER
FM 521 EAST AFTER THE RAILROAD TRACKS WADSWORTH // PASSABLE
HWY 60 SOUTH OF LYONDELL // NORTHBOUND LANE UNDERWATER
BUCKS BAYOU AND MORNING DOVE IS NOT PASSABLE // TRINITY GRASS FARM
HWY 60 S AND FM 2078// PASSABLE
FM 1862 SOUTHBOUND BLESSING // CLOSED
This is NOT a complete list, this is what has been reported.
About 1.3 inches total, 0.7 inches today. Slow and steady. I expect no flooding.
70 degrees and .82" of rain so far today
Talk about a Drought Buster, especially for the San Antonio region.
Over the past 3 weeks, I’ve gotten >12”, with more to come. My plants are incredibly happy. My water bill thanks the Heavens.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6210
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
46
FXUS64 KHGX 121911
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
211 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that affected many
locations in Southeast TX will continue to gradually shift to our
east. We are still expecting to have some vort maxes pass overhead
this afternoon to evening which could continue to result in areas
of light rain through at least the early evening hours, in
particular for areas near and south of I-10. Some coastal
locations may see brief periods of moderate rain. Rain chances
will decrease during the early night hours, although some
isolated showers may still occur from time to time. A few more
rounds of showers and storms can be expected later tonight into
Friday as the mid level disturbance continues to meander within
the OK/AR region and an unstable airmass remains in place. We will
have sufficient moisture to support the early morning showers and
storms, however, models indicate some drier air in our region
during that time as well...which could help keep some of the
rainfall more on the light to moderate range. We are expecting to
then see an uptick in showers and storms after sunrise and into
early afternoon hours, as both moisture and instability increases.
Some of these storms will once again be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the areas that received high
rainfall amounts today as these soils may stay fairly saturated on
Friday and any additional heavy rainfall could lead to additional
flooding impacts. That being said, we may consider extending the
Flood Watch for portions of Southeast TX.
Given that the timing for these showers and storms may occur
during the morning commute, it is recommended to stay aware of
your surroundings and keep an eye on the radar and road
conditions. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Do
not cross any flooded areas.
Cotto
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
The long term flow pattern features mid/upper ridging over SW and
SE CONUS, and a positive tilt trough extending from the Ohio River
Valley down to south-coastal Texas. This pattern will keep the
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
the middle portion of next week, though there are signs of a
pattern change featuring more ridging over our neck of the woods
by the middle to later portion of next week. The environment this
weekend through early next week should remain moisture rich.
Global ensembles suggest PWATs skewing above normal through at
least Monday. By Tuesday-Wednesday, ensembles are bifurcated
between keeping PWATs anomalously high and dropping PWATs to near
normal values. But even normal SE Texas June PWATs are pretty
high. So moisture is not an issue. With the daily chance of
showers/thunderstorms will also come the risk of locally heavy
rainfall and flooding. Given the heavy rains we have seen this
week, it may not take THAT much rain to result in localize
flooding this weekend into early next week.
Regarding temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. It will remain very humid. Even the "drier"
guidance shows afternoon dew points in the low 70s. Current blend
utilized in our dew point grids shows afternoon values generally
in the mid 70s (upper 70s near the coast). Peak afternoon heat
index values are expected to be near 105 degrees (technically
below heat advisory criteria). However, WBGT values are expected
to peak around 86-88 during the early afternoon. These values are
considered hazardous for anyone doing strenuous activity as well
as those who are sensitive to heat (example elderly, young
children).
Drink your water y`all!
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
A mix of IFR to VFR conditions currently across Southeast TX as
areas of showers and storms continue to move through the region.
Showers and expected to decrease later this evening, however, we
may see a few more isolated showers during the night hours. S-SE
winds at around 5 KTS expected tonight into early Fri morning as
well as lower cloud decks (MVFR). A gradual uptick in showers and
storms is expected from the early morning to afternoon hours on
Fri and could lead to additional periods of gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and llvl wind shear. Heavy rain can occur at times and
may result in IFR to MVFR vis/cigs. Winds will shift at times from
SE to SW on Fri. Conditions improve Fri evening.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rough seas will result in
hazardous marine conditions into the early afternoon today.
Conditions are expected to improve this afternoon. However,
onshore flow is expected to increase again tonight into Friday
morning, likely increasing seas again. Conditions will be
borderline Small Craft Advisory and an advisory may be warranted
at some point between now and Friday morning. The outlook for this
weekend into early next week features continued light to moderate
onshore flow and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Higher
winds and waves possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 72 89 75 / 100 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 77 / 100 40 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 82 / 100 40 60 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-
195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>438.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 121911
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
211 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that affected many
locations in Southeast TX will continue to gradually shift to our
east. We are still expecting to have some vort maxes pass overhead
this afternoon to evening which could continue to result in areas
of light rain through at least the early evening hours, in
particular for areas near and south of I-10. Some coastal
locations may see brief periods of moderate rain. Rain chances
will decrease during the early night hours, although some
isolated showers may still occur from time to time. A few more
rounds of showers and storms can be expected later tonight into
Friday as the mid level disturbance continues to meander within
the OK/AR region and an unstable airmass remains in place. We will
have sufficient moisture to support the early morning showers and
storms, however, models indicate some drier air in our region
during that time as well...which could help keep some of the
rainfall more on the light to moderate range. We are expecting to
then see an uptick in showers and storms after sunrise and into
early afternoon hours, as both moisture and instability increases.
Some of these storms will once again be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the areas that received high
rainfall amounts today as these soils may stay fairly saturated on
Friday and any additional heavy rainfall could lead to additional
flooding impacts. That being said, we may consider extending the
Flood Watch for portions of Southeast TX.
Given that the timing for these showers and storms may occur
during the morning commute, it is recommended to stay aware of
your surroundings and keep an eye on the radar and road
conditions. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Do
not cross any flooded areas.
Cotto
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
The long term flow pattern features mid/upper ridging over SW and
SE CONUS, and a positive tilt trough extending from the Ohio River
Valley down to south-coastal Texas. This pattern will keep the
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
the middle portion of next week, though there are signs of a
pattern change featuring more ridging over our neck of the woods
by the middle to later portion of next week. The environment this
weekend through early next week should remain moisture rich.
Global ensembles suggest PWATs skewing above normal through at
least Monday. By Tuesday-Wednesday, ensembles are bifurcated
between keeping PWATs anomalously high and dropping PWATs to near
normal values. But even normal SE Texas June PWATs are pretty
high. So moisture is not an issue. With the daily chance of
showers/thunderstorms will also come the risk of locally heavy
rainfall and flooding. Given the heavy rains we have seen this
week, it may not take THAT much rain to result in localize
flooding this weekend into early next week.
Regarding temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. It will remain very humid. Even the "drier"
guidance shows afternoon dew points in the low 70s. Current blend
utilized in our dew point grids shows afternoon values generally
in the mid 70s (upper 70s near the coast). Peak afternoon heat
index values are expected to be near 105 degrees (technically
below heat advisory criteria). However, WBGT values are expected
to peak around 86-88 during the early afternoon. These values are
considered hazardous for anyone doing strenuous activity as well
as those who are sensitive to heat (example elderly, young
children).
Drink your water y`all!
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
A mix of IFR to VFR conditions currently across Southeast TX as
areas of showers and storms continue to move through the region.
Showers and expected to decrease later this evening, however, we
may see a few more isolated showers during the night hours. S-SE
winds at around 5 KTS expected tonight into early Fri morning as
well as lower cloud decks (MVFR). A gradual uptick in showers and
storms is expected from the early morning to afternoon hours on
Fri and could lead to additional periods of gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and llvl wind shear. Heavy rain can occur at times and
may result in IFR to MVFR vis/cigs. Winds will shift at times from
SE to SW on Fri. Conditions improve Fri evening.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rough seas will result in
hazardous marine conditions into the early afternoon today.
Conditions are expected to improve this afternoon. However,
onshore flow is expected to increase again tonight into Friday
morning, likely increasing seas again. Conditions will be
borderline Small Craft Advisory and an advisory may be warranted
at some point between now and Friday morning. The outlook for this
weekend into early next week features continued light to moderate
onshore flow and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Higher
winds and waves possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 72 89 75 / 100 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 77 / 100 40 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 82 / 100 40 60 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-
195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>438.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Self
1.30” yesterday and 3.83” today.
5.13” for the week and 11.03” in the past two weeks.
5.13” for the week and 11.03” in the past two weeks.
There we're two Tornadoes yesterday in Wharton.
- Attachments
-
- torr.PNG (54.42 KiB) Viewed 312 times
Drought ravaged Central Texas got heavy rain last night.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=EWX
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=EWX
Code: Select all
014
SXUS54 KFWR 121559
HYDEWX
Rainfall Reports for the Austin / San Antonio Hydrologic Service Area
National Weather Service...West Gulf RFC...Fort Worth, TX
1058 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Precipitation for the 24 hours ending about 7 a.m. Thursday June 12, 2025
Metro Austin...
Liberty Hill 1.2 N 1.85 Liberty Hill 0.6 NNW 1.83
Balcones 1.67 Dripping Springs 0.6 SSE 1.67
Leander 6.4 WNW 1.63 Dripping Springs 2.1 ESE 1.59
Georgetown 8 WNW 1.55 Driftwood 2.8 NNW 1.47
Dripping Springs 2 N 1.29 Dripping Springs 4.8 ENE 1.22
Driftwood 3 SSE - Onion Creek 1.09 Georgetown 6.7 NNW 1.09
Bee Cave 6.3 S 1.05 Georgetown 6.7 NW 1.04
Dripping Springs 4.3 E 1.02 Austin 9.7 WSW 1.00
Georgetown 5.9 NNW 0.99 Hays 6 WNW 0.85
Georgetown 5.2 NNW 0.84 Sunset Valley 3.6 W 0.82
Austin 9.8 WSW 0.81 Webberville 6 W - East Austin 0.78
Austin - Oak Hill VFD 0.76 Austin-Slaughter Ck @ Hwy 1826 0.76
Austin - Blue Goose Rd 0.76 Georgetown 4.9 NW 0.72
Austin - WMS at Silvermine Dr 0.68 Georgetown 4.7 NNE 0.67
Bee Cave 2 N 0.66 Austin 5.6 WSW 0.66
Austin 10.8 WSW 0.63 Austin - Decker Weather Stn 0.60
Tanglewood Forest 3.5 NW 0.60 Austin - Shoal Ck at Foster Ln 0.52
Austin - 900 Barton Ck Blvd 0.52 Sunset Valley -Hot Springs Dam 0.52
Austin 7.8 SW 0.50 Austin 7 N 0.50
Leander 3 NW - UBCWD Dam #1 0.48 Bertram 9.1 SSW 0.46
Austin 4.1 NNW 0.46 Austin 5.9 NW 0.45
Lost Creek 2.7 NW 0.45 Austin - Westlake High School 0.44
Austin - 7600 Woodhollow 0.44 Austin -Walnut Ck @ Cameron Rd 0.44
Chimney Corners 0.44 West Lake Hills 2.4 NNW 0.44
Austin 1 N (45th&ShCrk) 0.44 Austin - Great Hills 0.43
Austin 10NNW (Great Hills) 0.43 Austin 3 E 0.42
Austin 3.9 NNE 0.41 Austin - Slaughter Creek 0.40
Austin - 10700 Floral Pk Dr 0.40 Chimney Corners 0.40
Austin 4.7 NNE 0.40 Austin 33 NW - Balcones NWR 0.39
Georgetown - Lake Georgetown 0.39 Bertram 7 SSW-Balcones Flyin X 0.37
Austin - 5800 Berkman Dr 0.36 Austin - 7500 Metro Center Dr 0.36
Austin -Bergstrom Intl Airport 0.36 Austin - 5300 Manor Rd 0.36
Austin - 2700 Loyola Ln 0.36 Austin-Walnut Ck @Goldenmeadow 0.36
East Austin - Bartholomew Dam 0.36 Shady Hollow 0.36
Austin 1.7 NNW (Lp 1 & 45th) 0.35 Pflugerville 2.9 ENE 0.35
Austin - 500 West Koenig Lane 0.32 Austin - 3200 Hemphill Pk 0.32
Austin - Canyon Vista School 0.32 Austin - 8300 Fathom Cir 0.32
Austin - Maha Creek 0.32 Austin - Shoal Creek Blvd 0.32
Austin - 6500 Arroyo Seca 0.32 Austin - W 45th St/Shoal 0.32
Austin - 9300 N Loop 1 0.32 Austin - 3700 Oak Springs Dr 0.32
Austin - Corpus Christi Dr 0.32 Austin - E Rundburg Ln 0.32
East Austin - Boggy Creek 0.32 Sunset Valley 0.32
Austin 4.2 ESE 0.32 Dripping Springs 6 NNE 0.31
Austin 7.3 SW 0.31 Wells Branch 4.2 S 0.31
Leander 1.4 SSW 0.30 Dripping Springs 6.4 N 0.29
Austin - Seminary Ridge Dr 0.28 Austin - 3400 Wm Cannon Dr 0.28
East Austin - Grover Tributary 0.28 Austin - 2000 FM 973 0.28
Austin - Walnut Ck @ Metric St 0.28 Austin - 4000 Oak Ck Dr 0.28
Austin - Duval Rd & MOPAC 0.28 Austin - Duval Fire Department 0.28
Austin - Parkfield Dr 0.28 Austin - Shoal Creek @ W 12th 0.28
Dessau - Josh Ridge Parkway 0.28 Round Rock 1.3 ESE 0.28
Austin - Waller Ck at E 45th 0.28 Georgetown 4 N - Berry Creek 0.26
Wells Branch - Mills Pond 0.26 Manchaca 2.1 ENE 0.25
Austin 2.9 NE (Lamar&Arpt) 0.25 Austin - Waller Creek 0.24
Shady Hollow - South Austin 0.24 Austin - 11200 Brodie Ln 0.24
North Oaks - Mearns Meadow Dam 0.24 Sunset Valley - Maui Dam 0.24
Dessau - Tech Ridge Dam 0.24 Austin 5 SSE 0.24
Cedar Park 0.3 SSE 0.23 Jollyville 1.2 WNW 0.23
Granger 6.8 WSW 0.22 Round Rock 3.3 SE 0.22
Georgetown 4.5 SSE 0.22 Austin - 1301 W Oltorf St 0.20
Austin - 2700 Slaughter 0.20 Austin - 1650 Webberville Rd 0.20
Austin-Walnut Ck @ Georgian Rd 0.20 San Leanna - Comburg Dam 0.20
Austin 4.1 SW 0.20 Georgetown 3 ESE 0.20
Jollyville 2 NE - Lake Creek 0.19 Tanglewood Forest 0.6 NE 0.19
Round Rock 3 NE 0.19 Brushy Creek 2.4 SW 0.19
Austin - Colorado River 0.18 Creedmoor 4 E - Maha Creek 0.18
Leander 4.6 SSW 0.18 Georgetown 1.5 WNW 0.18
Hutto 1.4 N 0.18 Leander 2 N - UBCWD Dam #2 0.18
Georgetown Mncpl Airport 0.17 Sunset Valley 0.7 SE 0.17
Hutto 0.8 WNW 0.17 Austin - Gillis Park 0.16
Austin - Dry East Creek 0.16 Austin - 2600 Webberville Rd 0.16
Austin - 5490 E William Cannon 0.16 Austin - Blunn Creek 0.16
Round Rock 1.6 WSW 0.16 Hutto 4 S - UBCWD Dam #22 0.16
Hutto 3 SW - UBCWD Dam #20 0.16 Round Rock 3 SW - UBCWD Dam #9 0.16
Cedar Park 2 SE - UBCWD Dam #6 0.15 Austin 8.5 NNW 0.15
Tanglewood Forest 2.9 E 0.15 Georgetown 1.4 SE 0.15
Round Rock 2.5 WNW 0.14 Jollyville 2 N - UBCWD Dam #8 0.13
Hutto 2 W - UBCWD Dam #18 0.13 Austin 6.6 SSW 0.13
Cedar Park 3.3 S 0.13 Georgetown 1.1 WNW 0.13
Round Rock 4 NE - UBCWD Dam 17 0.13 Round Rock 3 E - UBCWD Dam #19 0.13
Round Rock 3 N - UBCWD Dam #11 0.13 Austin - 3616 South 1st Street 0.12
Austin - St Edwards Dr 0.12 Austin - Country Club Creek 0.12
Austin - WMS at Emerald Forest 0.12 Austin -Colorado Rvr @ FM 2222 0.12
Austin - 9600 Old Lampasas Tr 0.12 Austin - South Congress Ave 0.12
Austin - Waller Creek @ E 12TH 0.12 Austin - Lakecreek Pkwy 0.12
Onion Creek 3.2 ENE 0.12 Austin 5.0 SSW 0.11
Cedar Park 4 ENE -UBCWD Site#3 0.11 Round Rock 5 NE -UBCWD Dam #14 0.11
Cedar Park 4 ENE - Brushy Ck 0.10 Anderson Mill 2.3 SW 0.10
Round Rock 5 NE - UBCWD Dam 16 0.10 Hutto 3 NW - UBCWD Dam #15 0.09
Austin - 3651 South IH 35 0.08 Cedar Park 5 NE-UBCWD Dam #13A 0.06
Round Rock 3 NW - UBCWD Dam 12 0.06 Leander 3 E - UBCWD Dam #3 0.06
Leander 3 ENE - UBCWD Dam #5 0.04 Georgetown 4 SSW 0.04
Cedar Park 3 SE - UBCWD Dam #4 0.04 Georgetown 2 NE 0.02
Metro San Antonio...
Helotes 2.2 SSE 7.65 Cibolo 2.4 NNW 7.18
Live Oak 0.8 SSW 7.02 Schertz 1.8 NNW 6.58
San Antonio 13 W 6.32 Universal City 0.5 NNE 6.28
Live Oak 3.4 NW 5.69 San Antonio 5.5 N 5.59
Selma - Cibolo Creek 5.50 Garden Ridge 3.7 NW 5.17
Garden Ridge 3.3 NW 5.10 Garden Ridge 3.9 NW 4.69
Hollywood Park 3.2 N 4.57 Garden Ridge 3.4 NW 4.42
New Braunfels 8.6 WNW 4.40 New Braunfels 5.6 WNW 4.32
Hollywood Park 1.7 ESE 4.06 Grey Forest 3.2 SE 3.90
San Antonio - San Antonio Rvr 3.78 Terrell Hills 2.7 SSE 3.76
Shavano Park 3.7 W 3.66 Somerset 5 NE - Medina River 3.62
San Antonio 2 S-San Antonio Rv 3.56 Hollywood Park 4.3 ENE 3.49
Alamo Heights 0.7 NNW 3.45 New Braunfels 5 W 3.45
Terrell Hills 1 NE 3.42 Hollywood Park 4.6 ENE 3.40
Hollywood Park 5.2 NE 3.29 San Antonio 2 SW -San Pedro Ck 2.90
Shavano Park 0.7 ESE 2.87 San Antonio 7.8 E 2.83
Hollywood Park 3 NE - W Elm Ck 2.81 San Antonio 11.9 W 2.73
Culebra Crk nr Helotes 4 SW 2.70 San Antonio 12 S - Medina Rvr 2.66
Helotes 2.4 NNW 2.60 San Antonio 8 NNW 2.58
Helotes - San Geromino Creek 2.55 Shavano Park 3 N - Salado Ck 2.51
Converse 2.0 ESE 2.40 Hollywood Park 0.5W 2.40
San Antonio 6 NNW- Olmos Creek 2.24 Adkins 1.8 WNW 2.14
San Antonio - Leon Ck at I-35 2.12 Timberwood Park 1.6 S 2.11
San Antonio 9 W 2.07 Bulverde 5.2 SE 2.07
San Antonio 14.1 W 1.87 San Antonio 10.5 ESE 1.80
China Grove 0.6 N 1.67 Leon Valley 3 SSW - Leon Creek 1.57
St. Hedwig 1.5 SSE 1.42 San Antonio - Salado Creek 1.24
Elmendorf 7 E 1.14 San Antonio - San Antonio Rvr 1.13
Cross Mountain 1.2 N 1.13 Losoya 3 E - San Antonio River 1.09
Timberwood Park 2.5 NW 0.94 Cross Mountain 2.1 N 0.93
Leon Springs 2.6 N 0.87 Elmendorf 5.6 ENE 0.87
Scenic Oaks 0.8 SW 0.86 Elmendorf 0.8 NNE 0.77
Dominion 2.1 NNW 0.73 Elmendorf 5 SE-San Antonio Rvr 0.72
San Antonio 8.1 SSE 0.60 Floresville 10 NW 0.50
Boerne 5.8 SSE 0.40
Hill Country...
Mico 5 E 8.49 New Braunfels 3.4 N 4.85
New Braunfels 3.8 N 4.63 New Braunfels 5.9 NW 4.53
New Braunfels 7.2 NW 4.09 Sattler 3 S - Guadalupe River 3.98
New Braunfels 6.9 NNE 3.81 Bandera Falls - Medina Lake 3.79
Fischer 2.3 ESE 3.78 Canyon Lake 0.4 NE 3.52
Wimberley 4.2 NNW 3.37 Wimberley 6 W - Blanco River 3.28
Canyon Lake 1.0 SW 3.23 New Braunfels 8.6 N 3.20
Woodcreek 0.5 SSW 3.17 Wimberley 4 WSW 3.13
Wimberley 5.1 WNW 3.11 New Braunfels 13.1 NW 3.04
Hondo 14.1 ENE 3.00 New Braunfels 8 N 2.85
New Braunfels 10.2 N 2.84 Spring Branch 2.4 SW 2.80
Spring Branch 0.8 SSE 2.75 New Braunfels 10.4 NW 2.72
Wimberley 1.3 NNW 2.70 Tarpley - Hondo Creek 2.70
Hondo 9 N - Middle Verde Creek 2.68 Canyon Lake 2.5 W 2.66
Castroville 7 NE 2.55 Harper 3 ENE 2.52
Spring Branch 8.3 NE 2.50 Canyon Lake 6.8 NNW 2.45
Spring Branch 2.2 W 2.42 Lakehills 1.1 SE 2.40
Spring Branch 7.5 NE 2.39 Canyon Lake 8.5 NNW 2.35
Blanco - Blanco River 2.24 Harper 5.3 ESE 2.23
San Marcos 7.1 W 2.21 Spring Branch 6 SW-Guadalupe 2.12
San Marcos 10.4 WNW 2.10 Harper 1 NW 2.07
Kendalia 5.2 SSW 2.05 Wimberley 1.9 WSW 2.00
Fischer - Fischer Store 1.95 Kendalia 5.4 S 1.90
Segovia 7 SSW 1.83 Fair Oaks Ranch 10 NNE 1.74
Harper 4.9 N 1.74 Fredericksburg 16.1 WSW 1.71
Driftwood 2.4 SSW 1.70 Boerne 8.8 NE 1.69
Fredericksburg 12.2 W 1.63 Wimberley 1.5 SSW 1.60
Blanco 6.8 WSW 1.59 San Marcos 16 W - Canyon Lake 1.53
Wimberley 1 SE 1.50 Burnet 2.8 W 1.44
Kendalia 3.9 S 1.42 Boerne 10 E 1.40
Kempner 6.1 NNW 1.40 Burnet 1.34
Burnet 4.3 NNW 1.33 Wimberley 1 E 1.33
Burnet 1.6 NE 1.32 Wimberley 3.6 ENE 1.32
Fredericksburg 11 NNE-Teague R 1.32 Bandera 8.4 SW 1.30
Burnet - Municipal Airport 1.28 Bulverde 4.3 ESE 1.28
Lakehills 1.2 NNE 1.21 San Marcos 6 NW - West RAWS 1.20
Bulverde 4.2 ENE 1.20 Wimberly 5.2 ENE 1.17
Mason 2 ESE - Llano River 1.11 Wimberley 2.1 SSE 1.10
Spicewood 4.4 NW 1.09 Kendalia 3 NNW 1.08
Junction 10.6 S 1.03 Dripping Springs 1.7 NW 1.01
Willow City 3.9 W 1.00 Blanco 8 SE -Little Blanco Rvr 0.98
Marble Falls 2.7 SE 0.95 Bulverde 1.3 NNE 0.93
Boerne 2.6 NNE 0.92 Boerne 0.91
Marble Falls 5.5 NNW 0.91 Camp Verde 3 W 0.90
Colorado Bend State Park RAWS 0.85 Kingsland 1.2 ENE 0.85
Mason 17.3 ESE 0.84 Ingram 14.2 NW 0.80
Kempner 1 W - Lampasas River 0.79 Medina 1.1 S 0.77
Marble Falls 5.1 NW 0.74 Boerne 1.6 E 0.74
Granite Shoals 1.1 SE 0.73 Kingsland 2.8 NE 0.73
Burnet 5.7 WSW 0.72 Dripping Springs 3.2 W 0.69
Boerne 7.8 NE 0.68 Horseshoe Bay 0.8 WNW 0.68
Blanco 5 W - Blanco River 0.66 Lampasas 2 W 0.65
Granite Shoals 0.9 S 0.60 Fair Oaks Ranch 2.2 NNW 0.60
Boerne 1.8 E 0.58 Mason 3 ESE - RAWS 0.58
Woodcreek 6 WNW 0.56 Boerne 5.2 ENE 0.56
Tow 1.6 NE 0.55 Boerne 1.2 E 0.53
Boerne 1.2 NNW 0.52 Lometa 2.7 WSW 0.52
Llano - Llano River 0.51 Fredericksburg 12.4 NE 0.51
Fredericksburg 9.1 WSW 0.51 Willow City 0.1 W 0.50
Horseshoe Bay 2.7 S 0.50 Medina -Medina River@Patterson 0.50
Fair Oaks Ranch 1.8 NW 0.49 Llano 0.5 ESE 0.49
Bandera 5.2 E 0.48 Boerne 2 WNW 0.47
Medina 8 NW-N Prong Medina Rvr 0.47 Llano 11.6 S 0.45
Ingram 10.6 NNW 0.45 Horseshoe Bay Resort Airport 0.43
Dripping Springs 8.4 W 0.42 Pipe Creek 2.7 S 0.38
Boerne 3.4 N 0.37 Medina 1 N 0.37
Boerne 8.4 ENE 0.36 Junction 3 NW -North Llano Rvr 0.36
Kerrville 6.7 N 0.36 Cypress Mills 3.1 SE 0.35
Bandera 9.5 WNW 0.34 Boerne 6.3 NW 0.33
Johnson City 2.2 N 0.32 Fredericksburg 11.4 NE 0.30
Buchanan Dam 5.6 NE 0.28 Boerne 8.1 NNW 0.28
Llano 11 SE 0.27 Medina 8 W- W Prong Medina Rvr 0.26
Boerne 6 WSW 0.25 Johnson City - Pedernales Rvr 0.24
Boerne 8.5 NNW 0.24 Boerne 6.5 N 0.24
Boerne 2 SE - Cibolo Creek 0.23 Kingsland 7 S - Sandy Creek 0.22
Ingram 10.2 NW 0.22 Fredericksburg 3 SW Airport 0.20
Bandera 8.7 NW 0.19 Bandera 6.1 ESE 0.19
Bandera Falls 2 NW -Medina Rvr 0.18 Bandera 6.4 N 0.18
Oatmeal 1.7 WNW 0.16 Boerne 15 NNE 0.16
Junction 2 E - Llano River 0.16 Fredonia 3.7 NE 0.16
Round Mountain 12.7 ESE 0.15 Dripping Springs 6.1 WNW 0.15
Boerne 4.7 WNW 0.15 San Saba 8 E - Colorado River 0.14
Bertram 3 ENE 0.13 Junction 1 SSW 0.12
Johnson City 7.3 W 0.11 Utopia 2.7 ENE 0.10
Johnson City 7.9 WNW 0.08 Fredericksburg 8.3 SSW 0.08
Ingram - Johnson Creek 0.06 Stonewall 2 N - LBJ Ranch 0.05
Hunt 1.9 NNE 0.05 Comfort 11.5 ENE 0.04
Fredericksburg 3 S 0.04 Kerrville 6.3 SW 0.04
San Saba - San Saba River 0.03 Kerrville 3 NNE 0.03
Kerrville 5.3 E 0.03 Kerrville 1.6 NW 0.03
Comfort 7 ENE 0.02 Ingram 2 NW 0.02
Menard 2 NW 0.02 Comfort 4.4 W 0.02
Ingram 1.1 NNW 0.02 Kerrville 0.9 NW 0.02
Concan - Frio River 0.01 Rocksprings 11.8 ENE 0.01
Ingram 1.3 W 0.01 Kerrville 0.5 SW 0.01
Ingram 8.6 WSW 0.01 Kerrville 3.5 NW 0.01
Kerrville 4.8 WSW 0.01
Del Rio Area...
Del Rio - Rio Grande @ Del Rio 0.01 Del Rio-Middle Fk San Pedro Ck 0.01
Remainder of Austin / San Antonio HSA...
New Braunfels 5.9 SW 6.18 New Braunfels - NWS Office 5.30
New Braunfels - Mncpl Airport 5.10 New Braunfels 1.8 WNW 4.60
Yorktown 10.7 NNW 4.29 New Braunfels 3.1 WNW 4.14
Nordheim 1 WSW 4.12 New Braunfels 0.1 ENE 3.98
Cuero 0.6 SSE 3.83 Castroville 4 SW 3.54
New Braunfels 4.6 W 3.43 Cuero 3.20
Castroville -Municipal Airport 3.18 Seguin 7.6 N 3.02
San Marcos 6.3 SW 3.02 Natalia 5.4 SSE 2.61
Mcqueeney 0.9 N 2.60 Seguin 8.1 N 2.50
Seguin 5.1 NW 2.50 San Marcos 1.8 NW 2.49
San Marcos 1.4 W 2.44 Cuero - Guadalupe River 2.35
San Marcos 6.8 SSW 2.33 San Marcos 2.3 WNW 2.23
San Marcos 4.3 WSW 2.22 San Marcos 2.8 WSW 2.16
Devine 0.4 S 2.12 Hondo 11 E 2.02
Marion 5 SSW 1.99 Runge - Ecleto Creek 1.82
Martindale 1 SSW -San Marcos R 1.82 Hondo 6.9 SSE 1.80
St. Hedwig - Martinez Creek 1.78 Martindale 1.7 NNW 1.78
Hondo 3 N - Hondo Creek 1.75 Kirby 0.2 WNW 1.72
Saint Hedwig 6 N -Cibolo Creek 1.71 Lockhart 7.9 SSW 1.71
San Marcos 2.9 WNW 1.69 Luling 6.9 NW 1.67
Manor 6.2 SE 1.62 Mcqueeney 3.4 SW 1.60
Seguin 5 SSE 1.58 Hochheim 1 W - Guadalupe River 1.53
Hondo 8.7 E 1.50 Falls City 8.3 WSW 1.50
Luling 1 S - San Marcos River 1.47 Hondo 8.8 E 1.45
Seguin 6.7 SW 1.43 San Marcos 5.8 N 1.38
Floresville 8.1 NNW 1.36 Devine 6.4 N 1.35
D`Hanis 2.4 NNE 1.31 Seguin 4.1 S 1.29
Stockdale 8.4 N 1.29 Gonzales 8 W - Guadalupe River 1.26
La Vernia 3.6 SSW 1.24 Elgin 3 ESE - Lacy RAWS 1.20
Webberville 1.8 ESE 1.18 Andice 1.6 SW 1.12
Gonzales 4.5 SSE 1.10 Leesville 4.2 NE 1.10
La Vernia 2.7 SW 1.09 Lockhart 5.2 S 1.05
Seguin 2.3 NE 1.04 Lexington 4.8 W 1.04
Gonzales - Guadalupe River 1.00 Kyle 2 SW - Blanco River 1.00
Gonzales 3.8 SW 0.98 Maxwell 1.5 NE 0.97
Seguin 0.6 SE 0.93 Gonzales 0.6 S 0.93
New Berlin 6.6 SE 0.89 Pleasanton 4.5 N 0.83
Gonzales 2 NW - Dreyer Airport 0.82 Floresville 2 SE - San Antonio 0.80
D`Hanis 0.4 NNE 0.80 Paige 7.5 NNW 0.78
Lockhart 5.2 SSE 0.74 Luling 7.4 NE 0.74
La Grange 8.1 SE 0.74 Floresville 8.9 WNW 0.73
Georgetown 5 NNW 0.72 Kyle 2.4 SE 0.71
Georgetown 5.3 NNW 0.71 Waelder 7 WNW 0.70
Smiley 2 NE - Sandies Creek 0.67 Luling 7.6 S 0.67
Yancey 0.9 WSW 0.67 Lexington 3.1 E 0.65
Kyle 5 W -Blanco R Halifax Rch 0.63 Belmont 2 N - Neasloney WMA 0.63
Elgin 3.8 ENE 0.62 Schulenburg 0.2 SSE 0.62
Lexington 0.1 E 0.60 Kyle 0.8 NE 0.59
Uhland 4.4 SE 0.58 Lockhart 4.3 NW 0.51
Schulenburg 7.7 NNW 0.50 Bertram 9.4 NE 0.48
Kyle 3 ENE - East RAWS 0.47 Lexington 2.3 SSW 0.46
Pearsall 1.4 W 0.44 La Grange 4.7 E 0.44
Beyersville 1 NW - Brushy Ck 0.42 La Grange 3.5 ENE 0.38
Pearsall 0.37 Pleasanton 9.1 NE 0.37
Bastrop 7.2 N 0.37 Harwood 4.7 NNE 0.37
Round Top 5.6 SE 0.37 McDade 3 SSW - near Bastrop 0.32
Smithville 7.6 NNW 0.31 Lockhart 8.4 ESE 0.31
La Grange 4.5 SW 0.31 Bastrop 4.4 NE 0.30
Bastrop 5.2 SE 0.30 Bastrop 2.1 SSW 0.30
Circle D-KC Estates 0.9 SE 0.29 Elgin 11.4 NE 0.29
Smithville - Colorado River 0.28 Smithville 5.4 NNW 0.28
McDade 4.6 SSW 0.28 Bastrop 1.5 NW 0.28
Bastrop - Colorado River 0.27 Smithville 6.5 NNW 0.27
Lockhart 4.3 ENE 0.27 Sabinal - Sabinal River 0.26
Granger 7 E - Granger Lake Dam 0.24 Smithville 4 NNE - Rocky Hill 0.24
Creedmoor 2.6 N 0.24 Bastrop 5.7 SW 0.23
Red Rock 1.2 N 0.23 Pleasanton 5.1 N 0.22
Taylor 1 NW 0.21 Wyldwood 8.3 SSW 0.21
Taylor 0.9 NNW 0.21 Dime Box 0.20
Red Rock 5 E - John Craft RAWS 0.19 Brackettville 1 SW-Las Moras 0.19
Cedar Creek 5.6 ESE 0.19 Dale 7.3 SE 0.18
Pearsall 21.1 WNW 0.15 La Grange 10.2 NW 0.15
Giddings - Lee Co Airport 0.14 La Grange 1 E 0.14
La Grange - Colorado River 0.13 La Grange 2 W - Airport 0.10
Runge 3 WSW -San Antonio River 0.07 Rocksprings 6.2 NNE 0.07
Kenedy - Escondido Creek 0.06 West Point 0.8 NE 0.05
Kenedy 1 NW - Regional Airport 0.04 Taylor 7 SE 0.03
Sabinal 0.01 Taylor 2 W - Municipal Airport 0.01
Sabinal 0.5 NNE 0.01
$$-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6210
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
055
FXUS64 KHGX 131152
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Another day this week, another day with shower and thunderstorm
development. Though we may have gotten through the peak of an
organized, widespread heavy rain threat, there will still be some
watching for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. Some of
the key points for tonight`s forecast:
- A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) and a
flood watch continue along the Gulf coast today. Because of
heavy rain from early Thursday morning, rain can quickly cause
flooding issues lower on the coast around Matagorda Bay. Higher
up the coast, particularly for parts of Liberty, Chambers, and
Galveston counties, the threat for new excessive rains are
highest.
- Renewed river flooding also continues after Thursday`s rains.
The Tres Palacios at Midfield is in major flood, and the
Navasota at Normangee is also forecast to reach major flood.
Other rivers above flood stage are the San Bernard (Boling) and
the Trinity (Riverside, Liberty, Moss Bluff).
- The unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend and
early next week. Rain and storm chances will be sticking with
us, though we have likely passed the peak intensity of these
daily rounds of showers and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
The radar scope and satellite images are thankfully much less
cluttered than they were 24 hours ago! On the downside, this is
more a break than a clearing, as we should expect today (and
tomorrow...and on into the long term) to continue to see further
rounds of shower and thunderstorm development.
Around or just before dawn, we`ll likely begin to see showers
starting back up around/east of Galveston Bay, and through the
morning begin to more broadly cover coastal Southeast Texas, and
further expanding inland through the afternoon. With the most
ample moisture and instability near the coast, plus, with the
longest period of time to see rain, coastal locations will be the
most likely to see intense enough rain to produce flooding
concerns. Lower on the coast towards Matagorda Bay, we also have
the added issue of saturated soils from yesterday`s 6-14 inches of
rain meaning rain will much more quickly become runoff and
contribute to flooding. Farther up the coast, particularly around
and east of Galveston Bay, the ground may be not quite as primed,
but they are still already fairly moist and this area looks like
it has the highest chances for the most intense rains today.
Because of this, we`ve expanded the flood watch up the coast to
include all of those coastal zones. This roughly coincides with
the slight risk area for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4)from
WPC for today.
Farther inland, be it from not quite as much coverage in storms,
and/or simply less time for storms to be occurring, there is less
concern for a flash flood threat. That does not mean, though, that
there is no flooding threat. The rest of the area is still in a
marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 4) from WPC. These inland
locations could still find themselves underneath a particularly
strong storm producing high rain rates. We get rain rates too
high, over the wrong spot, and suddenly a localized flash flood
threat could emerge. But, in general, the farther inland one gets
from the Gulf, the lower the threat for flooding rains will
be...even if they don`t ever get to zero.
The one silver lining in a day like today is that the large
majority of the area is pretty unlikely to reach even seasonable
levels of heat thanks to clouds, rain, and evaporation of
rainwater on the ground. The pattern for today`s highs will
follow the opposite gradient of rain potential. Up in our
northwestern corner, we`ll see the best chances to get to around
90 degrees. In the southeast in Chambers and southern Liberty
counties, we may struggle to see anything more than the lower 80s.
And depending on rain trends, my forecast may even be a touch
too high still!
Saturday...looks a lot like a repeat of today, but tamping down
the magnitude of rainfall potential just a bit more. But we should
still look for early morning development of showers and storms
near the coast around/east of Galveston Bay, which then spreads
down the coast and inland through the day. With storm coverage and
intensity tuned down a little bit more, tomorrow does look like it
should generally be warmer than today, with highs reaching more to
around seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms should continue over the weekend
into next week. Midlevel ridging will be situated over the Desert
Southwest/North Mexico on Sunday, keeping far enough west such that
a few disturbances & shortwave impulses will be able to wedge their
way south and pass over portions of the ArkLaTex, particularly over
our north/eastern zones across the Piney Woods area. With deep
moisture still in place, the possibility of strong downpours remains
possible. However, the heavy rainfall threat will still be low and
trending downwards at this phase in the forecast. Areas further
north/northeast of our CWA are currently outlooked for a Marginal
(level 1/4) risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday, so we could see
this risk area shift/expand to include portions of SE depending on
how the forecast evolves. Rises in creeks and streams are likely as
a result. Minor to Moderate river flooding is still ongoing over
portions of the Trinity river and will likely continue as a result
of this additional rainfall.
The aforementioned midlevel ridge starts to breaks down early next
week as a stronger shortwave trough digs in from the west. This will
allow for more rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms next
week, though these storms will broadly lack the stronger forcing
necessary for heavier rains. Daily rain chances continue though the
end of the long term, though model guidance suggest that ridging
should rebuild near the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Similar to previous days, high confidence in the development of
SHRA/TSRA, particularly near the coast, but less confidence in
details. Best attempt at sketching out when impacts will be felt
at terminals, but will have to be ready for quick changes to match
developmental trends through the day. Otherwise, generally
southerly wind flow continues, tending to be more east of south
afternoon, and more VRB/west of south at night and early in the
morning. Do also sketch in some MVFR CIGs late up north as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Moderate onshore winds and choppy seas of 6-7 feet have prompted
Small Craft Advisories in the offshore waters and caution flags in
the nearshore/bays. Later Friday morning, a cluster of storms is
expected to develop along the upper Texas coast, mainly around High
island to Freeport. Strong wind gusts to gale force, low visibility
and rough seas may develop in and around these thunderstorms. During
the late afternoon/early evening, these storms should be pushing
further offshore deeper into the Gulf of America.
light to moderate winds prevail thereafter over the several days,
prompting occasional caution flags at times. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible daily.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 74 91 75 / 30 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 86 76 91 77 / 60 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 89 82 / 60 10 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ214-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 131152
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Another day this week, another day with shower and thunderstorm
development. Though we may have gotten through the peak of an
organized, widespread heavy rain threat, there will still be some
watching for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. Some of
the key points for tonight`s forecast:
- A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) and a
flood watch continue along the Gulf coast today. Because of
heavy rain from early Thursday morning, rain can quickly cause
flooding issues lower on the coast around Matagorda Bay. Higher
up the coast, particularly for parts of Liberty, Chambers, and
Galveston counties, the threat for new excessive rains are
highest.
- Renewed river flooding also continues after Thursday`s rains.
The Tres Palacios at Midfield is in major flood, and the
Navasota at Normangee is also forecast to reach major flood.
Other rivers above flood stage are the San Bernard (Boling) and
the Trinity (Riverside, Liberty, Moss Bluff).
- The unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend and
early next week. Rain and storm chances will be sticking with
us, though we have likely passed the peak intensity of these
daily rounds of showers and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
The radar scope and satellite images are thankfully much less
cluttered than they were 24 hours ago! On the downside, this is
more a break than a clearing, as we should expect today (and
tomorrow...and on into the long term) to continue to see further
rounds of shower and thunderstorm development.
Around or just before dawn, we`ll likely begin to see showers
starting back up around/east of Galveston Bay, and through the
morning begin to more broadly cover coastal Southeast Texas, and
further expanding inland through the afternoon. With the most
ample moisture and instability near the coast, plus, with the
longest period of time to see rain, coastal locations will be the
most likely to see intense enough rain to produce flooding
concerns. Lower on the coast towards Matagorda Bay, we also have
the added issue of saturated soils from yesterday`s 6-14 inches of
rain meaning rain will much more quickly become runoff and
contribute to flooding. Farther up the coast, particularly around
and east of Galveston Bay, the ground may be not quite as primed,
but they are still already fairly moist and this area looks like
it has the highest chances for the most intense rains today.
Because of this, we`ve expanded the flood watch up the coast to
include all of those coastal zones. This roughly coincides with
the slight risk area for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4)from
WPC for today.
Farther inland, be it from not quite as much coverage in storms,
and/or simply less time for storms to be occurring, there is less
concern for a flash flood threat. That does not mean, though, that
there is no flooding threat. The rest of the area is still in a
marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 4) from WPC. These inland
locations could still find themselves underneath a particularly
strong storm producing high rain rates. We get rain rates too
high, over the wrong spot, and suddenly a localized flash flood
threat could emerge. But, in general, the farther inland one gets
from the Gulf, the lower the threat for flooding rains will
be...even if they don`t ever get to zero.
The one silver lining in a day like today is that the large
majority of the area is pretty unlikely to reach even seasonable
levels of heat thanks to clouds, rain, and evaporation of
rainwater on the ground. The pattern for today`s highs will
follow the opposite gradient of rain potential. Up in our
northwestern corner, we`ll see the best chances to get to around
90 degrees. In the southeast in Chambers and southern Liberty
counties, we may struggle to see anything more than the lower 80s.
And depending on rain trends, my forecast may even be a touch
too high still!
Saturday...looks a lot like a repeat of today, but tamping down
the magnitude of rainfall potential just a bit more. But we should
still look for early morning development of showers and storms
near the coast around/east of Galveston Bay, which then spreads
down the coast and inland through the day. With storm coverage and
intensity tuned down a little bit more, tomorrow does look like it
should generally be warmer than today, with highs reaching more to
around seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms should continue over the weekend
into next week. Midlevel ridging will be situated over the Desert
Southwest/North Mexico on Sunday, keeping far enough west such that
a few disturbances & shortwave impulses will be able to wedge their
way south and pass over portions of the ArkLaTex, particularly over
our north/eastern zones across the Piney Woods area. With deep
moisture still in place, the possibility of strong downpours remains
possible. However, the heavy rainfall threat will still be low and
trending downwards at this phase in the forecast. Areas further
north/northeast of our CWA are currently outlooked for a Marginal
(level 1/4) risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday, so we could see
this risk area shift/expand to include portions of SE depending on
how the forecast evolves. Rises in creeks and streams are likely as
a result. Minor to Moderate river flooding is still ongoing over
portions of the Trinity river and will likely continue as a result
of this additional rainfall.
The aforementioned midlevel ridge starts to breaks down early next
week as a stronger shortwave trough digs in from the west. This will
allow for more rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms next
week, though these storms will broadly lack the stronger forcing
necessary for heavier rains. Daily rain chances continue though the
end of the long term, though model guidance suggest that ridging
should rebuild near the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Similar to previous days, high confidence in the development of
SHRA/TSRA, particularly near the coast, but less confidence in
details. Best attempt at sketching out when impacts will be felt
at terminals, but will have to be ready for quick changes to match
developmental trends through the day. Otherwise, generally
southerly wind flow continues, tending to be more east of south
afternoon, and more VRB/west of south at night and early in the
morning. Do also sketch in some MVFR CIGs late up north as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Moderate onshore winds and choppy seas of 6-7 feet have prompted
Small Craft Advisories in the offshore waters and caution flags in
the nearshore/bays. Later Friday morning, a cluster of storms is
expected to develop along the upper Texas coast, mainly around High
island to Freeport. Strong wind gusts to gale force, low visibility
and rough seas may develop in and around these thunderstorms. During
the late afternoon/early evening, these storms should be pushing
further offshore deeper into the Gulf of America.
light to moderate winds prevail thereafter over the several days,
prompting occasional caution flags at times. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible daily.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 74 91 75 / 30 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 86 76 91 77 / 60 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 89 82 / 60 10 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ214-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
Keep an eye on that outflow crossing the Sabine…
Well, that escalated quickly. 30mins ago, it had 45% and 0.40”. Lol
- IMG_0167.gif (140.14 KiB) Viewed 41 times
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Areas affected...far southwest Louisiana, southeast Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 131707Z - 132137Z
Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible for the
next 2-4 hours (through 21Z) as slow-moving storms produce 1-3
inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area.
Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
areas near Beaumont and Lake Charles over the past couple hours.
These storms are in a weakly sheared environment, with slow
movement amid 2 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE promoting
rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr per MRMS. Storms are focused along
a remnant outflow boundary extending from west-southwest to
east-northeast across the region and a newer, stronger outflow
boundary from south-central Louisiana convection that was
currently near Lake Charles and propagating westward. These
outflow boundaries will continue to encourage deep moist
convection over the next 2-4 hours over wet/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall over the past 48 hours. 2-2.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds are likely to be exceeded at times in this
regime, and additional impacts to metro areas in the discussion
area (i.e., Lake Charles, Beaumont, and eventually Houston) cannot
be ruled out.
At some point beyond 21Z/4p CDT, the expectation is that
widespread convective overturning may temper the extent and
intensity of convection along with resultant rain rates. Storms
will mainly be outflow dominant given the weak low-level and deep
shear across the discussion area.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31109459 31089369 30649264 30059260 29659409
29089601 29369649 30109621 30639552