February 2026

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is trending negative in February.

[DoctorMu]

Youre going to have to wait until sometime in march, because while we may have a brief warm up in early february ( not even close to 80 degrees ) most of february is looking cold down here , and its quite possible it lingers into march because of whats going on with the Polar Vortex, not that im complaining , keep on bringing the cold!

Planting in February is asking for disaster in Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is trending negative in February.

Open the gates!

[tireman4]

Yep. When the AO goes negative, that allows for increased storminess and pooling cold air to penetrate southward.

[DoctorMu]

Yep. When the AO goes negative, that allows for increased storminess and pooling cold air to penetrate southward.

I approve this message.

[sambucol]

Yep. When the AO goes negative, that allows for increased storminess and pooling cold air to penetrate southward.

Would that probably cause some really cold air mass in to Texas to the coast.

[Cpv17]

Yep. When the AO goes negative, that allows for increased storminess and pooling cold air to penetrate southward.

Would that probably cause some really cold air mass in to Texas to the coast.

You need more than just that. That’s just one piece, but it’s definitely a big piece to have. When the AO goes into tank mode like it’s forecasted to do, that’s when you can start talking about Artic outbreaks, especially if other pieces line up.

[Cpv17]

Good gosh, the blocking on the 18z GFS is insane. Crazy -AO.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah 1067 MB high sitting over the Beauford sea is crazy, buts its crazy is how ensembles all have similar blocking patterns, i feel pretty good that the pattern is going to reload

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yeah 1067 MB high sitting over the Beauford sea is crazy, buts its crazy is how ensembles all have similar blocking patterns, i feel pretty good that the pattern is going to reload

It gets all the way to 1071mb lol

[tireman4]

Goodness gracious

[Cpv17]

Zoom in and check out that high over Greenland lol

[Stratton20]

yeah thats a recipe for building extremely bitter cold air in canada, I wonder how strong that high was for this current arctic outbreak ?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

yeah thats a recipe for building extremely bitter cold air in canada, I wonder how strong that high was for this current arctic outbreak ?

1056 I believe

[snowman65]

I know its far away but whats feb 11-14 looking like potentially for hill country?