January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasMetBlake]

I hate when big weather events happen. I get paralized at the computer and can't move. LOL. I'm really wondering what the Euro will show. Folks, screen shot the 12z while you have it. It may be a very long time before you see a model run, especially the Euro as sweet as that. I doubt the high will be 1070 this run, but it might be. Maybe stronger

Lets hope it is not stronger or we are going to have a serious problem.

Honestly, I think we already have a serious problem. We're already looking at lows well into the teens possibly.

[Andrew]

I hate when big weather events happen. I get paralized at the computer and can't move. LOL. I'm really wondering what the Euro will show. Folks, screen shot the 12z while you have it. It may be a very long time before you see a model run, especially the Euro as sweet as that. I doubt the high will be 1070 this run, but it might be. Maybe stronger

Lets hope it is not stronger or we are going to have a serious problem.

Honestly, I think we already have a serious problem. We're already looking at lows well into the teens possibly.

Well if we get higher than 1070mb then we could get a freeze that much stronger and possibly lasting that much longer. You are right though it does look like we already have a problem. I will probably be getting supplies tomm.

[biggerbyte]

I can't sleep for thinking about it. What an event this could be.

[TexasMetBlake]

I can't sleep for thinking about it. What an event this could be.

And to think we're a few model runs away from it all being hog wash to it being the strongest outbreak in history. LOL. I sure was surprised to find out that the highest pressure observed in the USA was "ONLY" 1064. Makes you wonder what kind of mojo the 1899 freeze had. Man, if a 1070 comes down into Montana, Houston may see low single digits....did I just say that?

[Andrew]

Also forget to mention the 00z GFS is predicting a temp of 4 degrees Fahrenheit for Dallas! 4 DEGREES! IF that plays out wow just wow!

[ejburas]

Ok, shot in the dark here. I know that we don't know any of the details for certain yet other than it's gonna be mighty cold around here, but if you had to take a guess, what's the worst case scenario?

[Andrew]

Ok, shot in the dark here. I know that we don't know any of the details for certain yet other than it's gonna be mighty cold around here, but if you had to take a guess, what's the worst case scenario?

For me worst case scenario would be what the Euro is showing. That would get lows in the teens to single digits. At that point highs wouldn't even make it above freezing. We could see a freeze for many days. For me that is the worst case scenario.

[TexasMetBlake]

Ok, shot in the dark here. I know that we don't know any of the details for certain yet other than it's gonna be mighty cold around here, but if you had to take a guess, what's the worst case scenario?

Well, THE worst case would be a 1070+ high dropping into Montana with isoheights vertical (cross polar flow) straight down to Mexico. The Euro is showing this, btw. If a disturbance precedes the high, then we could have snow cover to help chill the air at night. As the high moves in and settles in directly over the top of Houston, the winds would calm and skies would clear. This would allow for all-time record lows...possibly below zero at stations like CXO. But that is WORST CASE.

[TexasBreeze]

I would expect fluxuations in the model forecast strength of the high pressure dome and temps each run but the consistency between multiple models so far showing the same pattern can't be ignored. The upper level patterns in both major models is meridional flow from the north and has been consistent. La Ninas can and have produced big arctic outbreaks in the past fwiw.

[Andrew]

Ok, shot in the dark here. I know that we don't know any of the details for certain yet other than it's gonna be mighty cold around here, but if you had to take a guess, what's the worst case scenario?

Well, THE worst case would be a 1070+ high dropping into Montana with isoheights vertical (cross polar flow) straight down to Mexico. The Euro is showing this, btw. If a disturbance precedes the high, then we could have snow cover to help chill the air at night. As the high moves in and settles in directly over the top of Houston, the winds would calm and skies would clear. This would allow for all-time record lows...possibly below zero at stations like CXO. But that is WORST CASE.

The GFS was showing isoheights vertical down to Mexico but a weaker ridge. Consistency is beginning to get scary.

[Badfish]

How goes the euro on this run so far?

[Andrew]

How goes the euro on this run so far?

Hasn't started yet.

[Badfish]

My bad, I thought it started at roughly midnight or so. Be up even later now

[TexasMetBlake]

It has started. It's out to 168. Shows a 1052 so far.

[Andrew]

It has started. It's out to 168. Shows a 1052 so far.

Are you on Allan's site?

[Badfish]

It has started. It's out to 168. Shows a 1052 so far.

Is that comparable to the 12z, +/- 1052 at 180? or is this weaker?

[TexasMetBlake]

Penn State:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[TexasMetBlake]

Believe it or not, the 00z is looking colder yet...at least here in Texas. Man...

[Andrew]

Penn State:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Alright. Yea Allan updates later I guess.

[TexasMetBlake]

00z is far warmer over Colorado though. The -20 isotherms retreat from Colorado back into Canada.