January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

seems like the 18z just doesn't want to agree, cold is there just not as long.

It all goes east...

[biggerbyte]

I don't see how this type of airmass can do anything but sag south, in spite of everything. It would have to be a weaker front, which could always end up being the case in the end. Friday will be telling.

In the meantime:

Forecast for Porter, Montgomery County, Texas, per the NWS.

Monday Night and Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

[Mr. T]

seems like the 18z just doesn't want to agree, cold is there just not as long.

It all goes east...

No it doesn't. The only different here is that our friends to the east get some love. This run is colder for Texas, actually.

[Andrew]

seems like the 18z just doesn't want to agree, cold is there just not as long.

It all goes east...

No it doesn't. The only different here is that our friends to the east get some love. This run is colder for Texas, actually.

Not for SE Texas....


18z:

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       PRECIPITATION 
LEVEL      2M             2M                  
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          MM   
 HR
+  0.      2.5          -10.8           0.00
+ 12.     -1.8           -9.2           0.00
+ 24.      2.9          -10.8           0.00
+ 36.     -1.7          -10.3           0.00
+ 48.      5.3           -3.8           0.04
+ 60.      8.7            8.0           2.07
+ 72.      6.5            4.2           8.62
+ 84.      1.6           -0.3           0.35
+ 96.      5.2           -1.1           0.18
+108.      4.7            3.6           1.87
+120.      6.9            3.4           0.00
+132.      1.1            0.2           0.00
+144.      7.0           -0.6           0.05
+156.      1.5            0.4           0.10
+168.      6.9           -0.9           0.12
+180.      2.8            0.3           0.35
+192.      6.1           -2.6           0.21

12z

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       PRECIPITATION 
LEVEL      2M             2M                  
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          MM   
 HR
+  0.     -2.1           -9.3           0.00
+ 12.      2.5           -8.3           0.00
+ 24.     -0.7           -7.8           0.10
+ 36.     -2.2           -4.6           2.96
+ 48.     -6.4           -9.6           0.08
+ 60.     -1.9           -7.3           0.08
+ 72.     -5.0           -9.7           0.17
+ 84.      0.8           -7.1           0.28
+ 96.      0.1           -2.7           2.38
+108.      1.0           -2.1           2.63
+120.     -0.4           -3.7           1.19
+132.      1.7           -3.1           0.18
+144.     -3.0           -6.6           0.17
+156.      2.1           -3.2           0.00
+168.      0.9           -1.0           0.00
+180.      9.1            7.4           0.00
+192.      3.0            1.2           0.17

Also this is a lot farther east then compared to the 12z

[Ptarmigan]

Number of hours of 32 or below.
http://www.wxresearch.com/frezhour.htm

If the freeze next week was prolonged, it would the first one in quite some time.

[TexasMetBlake]

Okay, we need to split up....

Andrew: Watch Channel 13 and tell us what they say.

CC: I'm watching Channel 2

BB: Watch Fox

Mr. T: Watch Channel 11

If anybody else wants to watch one of these and get back to us, do it!

Okay, GO! The news is on!

[Andrew]

Okay, we need to split up....

Andrew: Watch Channel 13 and tell us what they say.

CC: I'm watching Channel 2

BB: Watch Fox

Mr. T: Watch Channel 11

If anybody else wants to watch one of these and get back to us, do it!

Okay, GO! The news is on!

Alright BREAK!

[wxman57]

Both 12Z and 18Z GFS runs have 850mb temps of -6C over Houston next week. Not really much difference. I would not focus so much on minor differences from run to run, particularly with 06z and 18Z GFS runs. Focus on the big picture. Compare GFS/EC/CMC runs and look up in NW Canada to see how cold the air actually gets there over the next 3-4 days.

[Andrew]

Here is what 13 has for their blog. Waiting for their TV forecast.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2011/01/se ... -week.html


The news had nothing to say about the event.

[Badfish]

Both 12Z and 18Z GFS runs have 850mb temps of -6C over Houston next week. Not really much difference. I would not focus so much on minor differences from run to run, particularly with 06z and 18Z GFS runs. Focus on the big picture. Compare GFS/EC/CMC runs and look up in NW Canada to see how cold the air actually gets there over the next 3-4 days.

If you were making a forecast for this "event", what would you put out at this juncture?

[Mr. T]

...

I don't pay attention to surface forecasts beyond day 7. I'm talking about the upper levels. For instance, the -12 isotherm reaches Dallas. That's not "it all goes east". Also, surface temps are a lot colder at day 7 before the low res

Of course, the cold air does depart quicker this run, but it's the gfs after truncation, so who cares.

[biggerbyte]

Fox 26:

He mentioned the front next week. He said it was going to be a very, very cold week. Then his forecast for Monday and Tuesday was highs in the upper 50s, with lows in the upper 30s..

Huh???


Way, way too warm.

[srainhoutx]

Gene says the front arrives Monday. Still looking at a chance of rain/sleet later in the week, and the colder air may not move out until sometime the following week.

[TexasMetBlake]

Frank Billingsley said that the -80 temps in Siberia appear as though they are going to break loose. The strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will pull these temps down. How cold? Not sure. But high temps near freezing by the end of next week are reasonable. He is also saying that it is possible to get to freezing and stay there for a few days with lows possibly getting into the teens. There was no mention of ice or snow.

[Mr. T]

Also, if you want to get technical, the coldest of air in dec 89 went east...

Doesn't mean much considering it reached 7 here

[biggerbyte]

Good point, Tyler.

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile I am getting some rain and thunder in NW Harris County.

[Mr. T]

Meanwhile I am getting some rain and thunder in NW Harris County.

There's weather happening right now? Lol

[Mr. T]

I'm going to be honest. I've been so busy looking at long range stuff and running around oustide that I didn't even notice there are some fairly nice thunderstorms to the west

Most of us north of IH-10 should get a good soaking tonight.

Also, I'm glad it's starting to rain again

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to be honest. I've been so busy looking at long range stuff and running around oustide that I didn't even notice there are some fairly nice thunderstorms to the west

Most of us north of IH-10 should get a good soaking tonight.

Also, I'm glad it's starting to rain again