January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it.

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3481
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

ronyan wrote:
Andrew wrote:18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that :)


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.
Are you sure you want to subject yourself to another 0z run? However, if the 0z run starts going colder then we may have something.

Yea I am trying to discipline myself not to get too excited for these events. Too many times I have gotten excited for a weather event only to be disappointed. Watching the 00z will only be part of my discipline process.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3481
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Wanted to bring this to the next page since I posted right after Candy Cane did

Candy Cane:

Code: Select all

I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it. 

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
perk
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:17 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

ronyan wrote:
Andrew wrote:18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that :)


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.
Are you sure you want to subject yourself to another 0z run? However, if the 0z run starts going colder then we may have something.
Great point i know i don't. :D
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1103
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Candy Cane wrote:I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it.

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.
Is this possible snow for all of SE Texas? We are located near Baytown. Would that area be included? Thanks.
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

Again, details are sketchy. HGX said that as of now, north Houston metro (montgomery, walker, grimes, brazos, san jacinto, houston and liberty counties) stand the best chance. But it is a good ways off so lets just watch. This is quite a turn of events (AGAIN) since last night.
User avatar
C2G
Posts: 236
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 8:55 pm
Location: NW Galveston County
Contact:

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area. :D
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3481
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Cloud2ground wrote:Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area. :D

It is part of the game. If you can't handle the disappointment get out of the kitchen. :lol:
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

Cloud2ground wrote:Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area. :D
NOW YOU'RE LEARNING! :mrgreen:
User avatar
helloitsb
Posts: 194
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:44 pm
Location: Oklahoma, TX
Contact:

I was about to call it quits and hope for Spring to hurry up and get here but the 12 Euro looks good and so does the 18 gfs and Candy Cane's "buddy" kind of got me excited also :lol:
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Cloud2ground wrote:Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area. :D
Did you say post the DGEX? :lol:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

62 pages may turn into 100 pages by 10 pm with the DGEX posted. LOL. Look out Rita thread, here we come!
randybpt
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:20 am
Contact:

Just looks like the american flag draped over us..........SO WHAT IS ALL THAT
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

randybpt wrote:Just looks like the american flag draped over us..........SO WHAT IS ALL THAT
If you are referring to the DGEX that Srain posted, that particular run is indicating moderate/heavy snow (especially north) from say Conroe northeast to Shreveport.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Folks, I'd never post the DGEX or the NOGAPS, for that matter. It was a bit of a joke. Carry on...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
redneckweather
Posts: 1024
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Conroe here. I think I just pee'd a little. :?
User avatar
Badfish
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:48 am
Location: Clear Lake, (Space Center at El Dorado)
Contact:

How does a novice watch what wxman is talking about as far as cold air supply/building high pressure in NW Canada?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19673
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Badfish wrote:How does a novice watch what wxman is talking about as far as cold air supply/building high pressure in NW Canada?

Image

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

Image

Image

FOUND IT! (cold air)

Image
Post Reply
  • Information