January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasMetBlake]

I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it.

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.

[Andrew]

18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.

Are you sure you want to subject yourself to another 0z run? However, if the 0z run starts going colder then we may have something.

Yea I am trying to discipline myself not to get too excited for these events. Too many times I have gotten excited for a weather event only to be disappointed. Watching the 00z will only be part of my discipline process.

[Andrew]

Wanted to bring this to the next page since I posted right after Candy Cane did

Candy Cane:

Code: Select all

I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it. 

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.

[perk]

18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.

Are you sure you want to subject yourself to another 0z run? However, if the 0z run starts going colder then we may have something.

Great point i know i don't.

[sambucol]

I just got off the phone with my friend at HGX and he had this to say:

The forecaster who wrote the AFD and did the grids today is a very reliable forecaster and is VERY good at what he does. "buddy" (my friend) said when he says something, he listens. "buddy" said that the Euro is showing upwards of .5" of QPF while IN THE COLD. He said that between me and him (and you) that we could have a winter wx event, if and only if, things are working out the way the models are hinting. Buddy and his co-worker believe that the sheer magnitude of the shortwave (just look at it, ...it's spinning like a top) is very strong and will usher the cold front in on Saturday night. This would allow temps to be colder on Sunday than being forecast currently. He said he had not seen the 18z gfs but cautioned me not to focus on the 'warmer' runs or the 'colder runs' but rather the idea that it could get very cold still. He said that The models are very good at sampling the United States--a lesser extent, Canada (but still good). He said that the models had been cold for days and days and days and just recently lost the event...which is typical when systems begin to take shape over foreign lands. Often times troughs or ridges are not well sampled in the medium range and usually 'snap back' as the event draws near. Buddy seemed really excited at the prospect of snow across the area (especially the northern sections) but said he wanted to see more runs before believing it.

The take home message is that the front, in his opinion, will blast through here Saturday night leading to a colder than forecast Sunday thanks to the very strong shortwave pulling on the cold air to come down. This would **potentially** create a winter wx event across the area. He went on to say that it was just too early to say whether this is going to be arctic air or just an 'enhanced January cold front'. Either way, he said this is very much worth watching. So there ya go.

Is this possible snow for all of SE Texas? We are located near Baytown. Would that area be included? Thanks.

[TexasMetBlake]

Again, details are sketchy. HGX said that as of now, north Houston metro (montgomery, walker, grimes, brazos, san jacinto, houston and liberty counties) stand the best chance. But it is a good ways off so lets just watch. This is quite a turn of events (AGAIN) since last night.

[C2G]

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

[Andrew]

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

It is part of the game. If you can't handle the disappointment get out of the kitchen.

[TexasMetBlake]

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

NOW YOU'RE LEARNING!

[helloitsb]

I was about to call it quits and hope for Spring to hurry up and get here but the 12 Euro looks good and so does the 18 gfs and Candy Cane's "buddy" kind of got me excited also

[srainhoutx]

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

Did you say post the DGEX?

[TexasMetBlake]

62 pages may turn into 100 pages by 10 pm with the DGEX posted. LOL. Look out Rita thread, here we come!

[randybpt]

Just looks like the american flag draped over us..........SO WHAT IS ALL THAT

[TexasMetBlake]

Just looks like the american flag draped over us..........SO WHAT IS ALL THAT

If you are referring to the DGEX that Srain posted, that particular run is indicating moderate/heavy snow (especially north) from say Conroe northeast to Shreveport.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, I'd never post the DGEX or the NOGAPS, for that matter. It was a bit of a joke. Carry on...

[redneckweather]

Conroe here. I think I just pee'd a little.

[Badfish]

How does a novice watch what wxman is talking about as far as cold air supply/building high pressure in NW Canada?

[srainhoutx]

How does a novice watch what wxman is talking about as far as cold air supply/building high pressure in NW Canada?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html

[TexasMetBlake]

This link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa

[TexasMetBlake]

FOUND IT! (cold air)