January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

New tweet from TWC.....

"Significant ice storm now looks likely from Ark-la-tex Sun. into the Carolinas Mon.  Travel disruptions & power outages."

http://twitter.com/wxchannel/status/23062652427173889

[Badfish]

With the GFS flopping around like a fish with each run, a buddy of mine just made light of what the euro 12z looks like, I almost spit out my drink.

Euro Model- "Your paragon of steadiness in a s&@%storm of change"

That should be the slogan!

[CAK]

Honestly, I think it's all part of the deal. I mean we're all on this board because have all have a very sick infatuation with the weather---and I'm the sickest. LOL. I mean it's like riding a roller coaster. Part of the fun is screaming your head off with your hands in the air wondering if the cart your in is going to stay on the track (my thoughts, lol). In my opinion, it's fun to think about (at least earlier this week) to think about temps being in the low teens. How often does it happen---and for it, at least for a day or two, be a possibility. It's why I secretly get super excited about being hit by a powerful hurricane. You don't want it to happen, but if it's going to hit anyway, I wanna experience it. Anyway, that's that.

I'm with you on that...believe me, I need to go to wishcasters anonymous.

[srainhoutx]

Not today CC. Sorry. The run is colder so far. Cold air flooding into Canada and along the lee of the Rockies. 0 degree 850's Western Canada along the Pacific West Coast and down into TX. -10's showing up in KS/OK and -20's along the front range (these are 850mb temps) through 126.

[srainhoutx]

@ 144, 0 degree line drapped along Coastal TX. 1040mb high in NE/KS. 1058mb high dropping S from the Yukon. -10 line drapped along the I-40 corridor. Large are of of -20/-30's building across Western/Central Canada. (degrees are 850mb temps)

[randybpt]

So basically what is going here is this the models using this analogy is like their trying to track a category 5 hurricane when there isn't even a disturbance yet. Like wxman if I don't see the cold air in the origin where it is supposed to dump from then there isn't anything to dump.

[wxman666]

That was fast! HGX zone forecast update....now at 100% showers and storms Saturday night/Sunday. Some may produce heavy rain.

[srainhoutx]

@ 168, Polar vortex dropping S from N Central Canada. High pressure begins to slide E in MO and we begin to warm, slightly. Large area of very cold air spills into Canada and expands and building to the W. 582 heights showing up NW of AK.

[cisa]

Honestly, I think it's all part of the deal. I mean we're all on this board because have all have a very sick infatuation with the weather---and I'm the sickest. LOL. I mean it's like riding a roller coaster. Part of the fun is screaming your head off with your hands in the air wondering if the cart your in is going to stay on the track (my thoughts, lol). In my opinion, it's fun to think about (at least earlier this week) to think about temps being in the low teens. How often does it happen---and for it, at least for a day or two, be a possibility. It's why I secretly get super excited about being hit by a powerful hurricane. You don't want it to happen, but if it's going to hit anyway, I wanna experience it. Anyway, that's that.

I'm with you on that...believe me, I need to go to wishcasters anonymous.

Well said

[wxman57]

dont get caught up in a 1070H Wxmn 57? I am sorry you dont see those very often....

GFS has always had a hard time with artic air masses. I am not surprised it flopped the last few days. give it some time....hunch it flips back...

That's not what I meant. Sure, 1070mb is unusual, but you could see just air just as cold across TX with a 1035mb high if it's very shallow.

[MRG93415]

So I have this straight...We are gonna get a bunch of rain over the weekend. No snow or sleet but very cold temps? So if that is true for the Houston area, then what would be the closest place that could see some snow? Was thinking about taking the kids for a little snow ride...

[ronyan]

So basically what is going here is this the models using this analogy is like their trying to track a category 5 hurricane when there isn't even a disturbance yet. Like wxman if I don't see the cold air in the origin where it is supposed to dump from then there isn't anything to dump.

I think you're looking at the source region too soon, wait until the weekend. You never have anything positive to say about cold air!

[srainhoutx]

Bitter cold in Western/Central Canada by 240. Temps here have warmed, but it appears a front is heading S from Canada at the end of the run. Heights over Eurasia are very impressive.

[srainhoutx]

So I have this straight...We are gonna get a bunch of rain over the weekend. No snow or sleet but very cold temps? So if that is true for the Houston area, then what would be the closest place that could see some snow? Was thinking about taking the kids for a little snow ride...

NE TX looks like a sweet spot at this range.

[srainhoutx]

HPC's Paul Kocin has updated. Status Quo...


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
159 PM EST THU JAN 06 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 14 2011

STILL NO LARGE CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AS THE REGION
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUGE CUTOFF UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT
DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

TODAYS FORECAST IS JUST A SIMPLE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE RELATIVELY
STABLE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FINDING THE COMBINATION OF
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT PROVIDE A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE MEANS. IN
THAT END...THE BEST MODELS THAT APPEAR TO FIT THAT SCENARIO
INCLUDE THE OPERATIONAL 00Z EUROPEAN AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TO
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST IMPLIES A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS LITTLE NEW TO NOTE WITH THE 12Z EUROPEAN FORECAST. WILL
KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT AND SWEET.

KOCIN

[srainhoutx]

No big changes from the HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
742 AM EST THU JAN 06 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 13 2011

...COLD FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND A STORM THREAT UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXPECTED CHANGE IN EMPHASIS OF HIGHER LATITUDE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FROM ERN/NERN CANADA TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. THIS
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAVE A MODERATE STRENGTH POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND SRN GREENLAND
THOUGH. AS SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS...STRONGEST NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD
WEAKEN WHILE HEIGHTS DECREASE OVER SRN/SWRN CANADA...WITH AN
INCREASE IN PACIFIC ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE WEST.

OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
POTENTIAL STORM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...TRAILED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS
AND ONWARD. DURING DAYS 3-4 SUN-MON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A WHOLE PROVIDE A REASONABLE FORECAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST...GENERALLY ALONG WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS. THE
00Z UKMET/CMC ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SUPPORTING THE GULF COAST SURFACE LOW...AND ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORED IN LIGHT OF MULTI-DAY TRENDS/CONTINUITY THAT HAVE
GENERALLY FAVORED SLOWER PROGRESSION IN LINE WITH AN INITIALLY
CLOSED SYSTEM. GUIDANCE DIVERGES MORE FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. DUE
TO THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...THAT MODEL EJECTS THE
INITIAL WAVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEN TAKES ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS
TO DEVELOP ITS STRONGER WRN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW THAT ENDS UP ON
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE FULL MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. THE 00/06Z
GEFS AND THE 00Z/YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST
CLUSTERING A LITTLE EASTWARD OF THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS/DGEX...BUT
THESE RUNS REMAIN WITHIN THE MAIN SOLUTION ENVELOPE AND THE 00 UTC
UKMET/CMC TRACKS ALSO FALL IN THE MIDDLE TO WRN HALF OF THE
SPREAD. WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERING THE BEST CONTINUITY AMONG
GUIDANCE SO FAR... PREFER TO LEAN MORE TOWARD BLENDING GEFS/ECMWF
MEANS WITH ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING OF THE GFS TO PROVIDE SOME ADDED
STRENGTH FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD CONSIDERING POTENTIAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT. IT IS HOPED THAT WITH A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE
SUPPORTING ENERGY CROSSING THE CONUS VERSUS ENTERING THE CONUS
FROM CANADA WHERE MODELS HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER
PREDICTABILITY THAN PRECEDING SYSTEMS.

OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN CONUS...TELECONNECTION FAVORED TRENDS IN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER/NEAR ALASKA SHOULD BE
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A WAVY WARM FRONT THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST BY AROUND TUE. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE ON THE FAST
SIDE OF THE SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
TRENDS FROM THE O6Z GFS. BY DAYS 6-7 WED-THU ENSEMBLES GENERALLY
SUGGEST THAT THE 00Z GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ADDITIONAL LOW
PRESSURE ENTERING THE WEST...THOUGH THE OLDER 12Z ECMWF WAS EVEN
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. HPC BLENDS EMPLOYED FOR CAPTURING
CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY WITH THE GULF COAST/WRN ATLANTIC SYSTEM SEEM
TO RATHER WELL DEPICT A SEEMINGLY WELL BALANCED CONSENSUS SOLUTION
FOR ERN PAC/WRN CONUS EVOLUTION GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTION SPREAD.

RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL

[snowman65]

You know, I have an uncle that, when I was younger, would always have his tv on the weather channel. Every time I'de go to his house he would have it on. I would always ak him "Why in the world do you always watch this? You must be pretty bored to just watch the weather 24/7.." He would laugh at me...Well, now I know. You get all caught up in it and now I watch the weather 24/7 (almost).....But, I have to admit, I don't stay up intul 3am waiting for the next model run like some poeple in here (CC)........

[snowman65]

Can someone explain to me what the numbers next to the color bar represent in the TOP ECMF chart that Sraun posted a bit ago??Thanks

[randybpt]

Lol..ronyan here is somethig positive im positive we will not see temps in the teens or not see any snow next week til maybe the next week

[mwbwhorton]

Well twc is saying ice for my area but i really don't know the full picture as the model runs are impressive winter storm wise
but the local tv mets are pretty mum over this atm im right on the egde of a heavy snow but its just to close to call atm..