January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Belmer]

I've beena a guest on here for days now reading up on everything. I just had a question, which I know is pointless, but curious on some of hte answers some of y'all top experts have. haha..
So, my question is, I know obviously from what I have read, It's impossible to get the temperatures/precipitation past 4-5 days out. BUT, I was curious, LOTS of models are showing even a colder blast by the week after next with highs here in the Houston area in the low 30s to upper 20s, and lows well into the 10s. They also have a good amount of snow in the forecast. With that being said, does it look like by any chance that could be possible with another strong, colder ridge heading our way!?

[harpman]

I'm not sure that would be a fair comparison given the difference in technology from now compared to back then.

[jabcwb2]

There is nothing to post.. lot of cold.rain here sunday followed by dry cold air maybe a couple notes in mid.to upper 20s nothing we haven't had this year. So I see no need in being excited anymore.

While I understand any disappointment...never say never. Remember how "there was no chance in heck" that it would snow on Christmas Eve 2004 according to nearly all the Houston mets? I'll tell you what, I've never seen a forecast change so much so quickly before in a matter of hours. And I certainly think we're in for a lot more than "rain." While frozen precip might not occur...we are fairly confident about some pretty hard core storms blowing through here Saturday night, so by all means...we should stay on top of our game. I've got weather radios, flashlights, coffee and cocoa, extra warm blankets and jackets ready to go.

So we should be prepared for power outages, flooding, what else?

[srainhoutx]

I've beena a guest on here for days now reading up on everything. I just had a question, which I know is pointless, but curious on some of hte answers some of y'all top experts have. haha..
So, my question is, I know obviously from what I have read, It's impossible to get the temperatures/precipitation past 4-5 days out. BUT, I was curious, LOTS of models are showing even a colder blast by the week after next with highs here in the Houston area in the low 30s to upper 20s, and lows well into the 10s. They also have a good amount of snow in the forecast. With that being said, does it look like by any chance that could be possible with another strong, colder ridge heading our way!?

Welcome Belmer. While we do not know the exact details, there are 'hints' if you will, that the pattern will provide reinforcing shots of cold air. We shall see.

[txsnowmaker]

I'm not sure that would be a fair comparison given the difference in technology from now compared to back then.

Perhaps, but on the other hand, maybe the forecast was more on target than one might think.

[Baseballdude2915]

I've beena a guest on here for days now reading up on everything. I just had a question, which I know is pointless, but curious on some of hte answers some of y'all top experts have. haha..
So, my question is, I know obviously from what I have read, It's impossible to get the temperatures/precipitation past 4-5 days out. BUT, I was curious, LOTS of models are showing even a colder blast by the week after next with highs here in the Houston area in the low 30s to upper 20s, and lows well into the 10s. They also have a good amount of snow in the forecast. With that being said, does it look like by any chance that could be possible with another strong, colder ridge heading our way!?

Anything is possible. The GFS model is showing normal to below normal temps for the week after next. The model showing the FRIGID temps is the EURO (ECMWF). The key is after 5 or 6 days, only note the trends of the models. The details will be worked on as we near the event. With frigid air like this, it is a stepping down process (one front after another). While low teens as lows would be nice, we can't guarantee it unless it is within 5 days. What is guaranteed, is that we are in for more cold after this first wave. The pattern is working in favor of us who like cold, and I'm betting the best of it is yet to come.

[wxman666]

There is nothing to post.. lot of cold.rain here sunday followed by dry cold air maybe a couple notes in mid.to upper 20s nothing we haven't had this year. So I see no need in being excited anymore.

While I understand any disappointment...never say never. Remember how "there was no chance in heck" that it would snow on Christmas Eve 2004 according to nearly all the Houston mets? I'll tell you what, I've never seen a forecast change so much so quickly before in a matter of hours. And I certainly think we're in for a lot more than "rain." While frozen precip might not occur...we are fairly confident about some pretty hard core storms blowing through here Saturday night, so by all means...we should stay on top of our game. I've got weather radios, flashlights, coffee and cocoa, extra warm blankets and jackets ready to go.

So we should be prepared for power outages, flooding, what else?

Well....depending on where you are...I would imagine power outages are a possibility in some locations. We need to be prepared for damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes as well. The main thing that concerns me is the fact that it's an overnight threat..so we won't see anything coming, we have no sirens to alert us...so basically it narrows down to a weather radio or something of the sort to wake us up. Heavy rain is highly likely...with 1-3" commonplace, maybe some isolated spots picking up 4-5". This should go on through Sunday morning and calm down fairly significantly later in the day. I will have SPC's page open and ready to go come Saturday night, and my weather radio siren on full blast.

[wxman666]

HGX shows the thunderstorm threat from 6 PM Saturday through noon Sunday.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/hgx/ ... _full2.gif

[wxman666]

Okay, I am really not understanding where Tim is getting this data from. It matches none of the models, none of the other forecasts...it's so far off the charts. Am I missing something? First off, he is predicting the best chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening going 80% during the day Sunday and 40% Saturday. That was unexpected. Secondly...he is confident with his forecast of no winter precip anywhere at all in Southeast TX the entire weekend....not even the far northern counties. This is a completely opposite forecast from anything else out there. Perhaps he is seeing something we are not, so I was just curious. See the video here....

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7883924

[tireman4]

Okay, I am really not understanding where Tim is getting this data from. It matches none of the models, none of the other forecasts...it's so far off the charts. Am I missing something? First off, he is predicting the best chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening going 80% during the day Sunday and 40% Saturday. That was unexpected. Secondly...he is confident with his forecast of no winter precip anywhere at all in Southeast TX the entire weekend....not even the far northern counties. This is a completely opposite forecast from anything else out there. Perhaps he is seeing something we are not, so I was just curious. See the video here....

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7883924

Well he does have a certificate....Wooo Hoo

[wxman666]

Okay, I am really not understanding where Tim is getting this data from. It matches none of the models, none of the other forecasts...it's so far off the charts. Am I missing something? First off, he is predicting the best chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening going 80% during the day Sunday and 40% Saturday. That was unexpected. Secondly...he is confident with his forecast of no winter precip anywhere at all in Southeast TX the entire weekend....not even the far northern counties. This is a completely opposite forecast from anything else out there. Perhaps he is seeing something we are not, so I was just curious. See the video here....

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7883924

Well he does have a certificate....Wooo Hoo

LOL! Yes, yes he does. So...if I had a certificate, could I forecast earthquakes and blizzards and hail the size of minivans to hit our area? LOL! Kidding.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z NAM suggests the W Coast storm enters TX Saturday evening. The NAM has been the fast outlier, so take it for what it's worth.

[Mrs.Frosty]

Okay, I am really not understanding where Tim is getting this data from. It matches none of the models, none of the other forecasts...it's so far off the charts. Am I missing something? First off, he is predicting the best chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening going 80% during the day Sunday and 40% Saturday. That was unexpected. Secondly...he is confident with his forecast of no winter precip anywhere at all in Southeast TX the entire weekend....not even the far northern counties. This is a completely opposite forecast from anything else out there. Perhaps he is seeing something we are not, so I was just curious. See the video here....

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7883924

I'm pretty sure he misspoke and meant to say Saturday afternoon into late Saturday evening instead of Sunday afternoon/evening.

[Snowman]

im young but i have been looking at this forum for years. this happens atleast once your twice every winter. A major cold blast is predicted and we just end up with a 28 at IAH. I have seen this happen so many times. Its fun to track it and look at the models but i suppose it is not good to get your hopes up for a 1 in 50 year event to occur

As a person looking at this forum though i very much respect all of you and I thank you all for the detailed information i am able to get on this forum. and when it comes to cold outbreaks, wxman (heat mister) has to be completely on board for me to believe it for sure

[helloitsb]

Srain mind posting that DGEX again before I lose hope and wish for Spring?

[wxman666]

Okay, I am really not understanding where Tim is getting this data from. It matches none of the models, none of the other forecasts...it's so far off the charts. Am I missing something? First off, he is predicting the best chance of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening going 80% during the day Sunday and 40% Saturday. That was unexpected. Secondly...he is confident with his forecast of no winter precip anywhere at all in Southeast TX the entire weekend....not even the far northern counties. This is a completely opposite forecast from anything else out there. Perhaps he is seeing something we are not, so I was just curious. See the video here....

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7883924

I'm pretty sure he misspoke and meant to say Saturday afternoon into late Saturday evening instead of Sunday afternoon/evening.

The computer guy must've had an issue with putting the thunderstorm icon on the right day too. Haha. That was what I first thought too until i saw the graphics.

[Mr. Weather]

any snow for Houston in the up coming weeks ?

[wxman666]

any snow for Houston in the up coming weeks ?

If you ask HGX, KHOU, and KPRC...*maybe*. If you ask KTRK....we have a better chance at winning TX lotto. LOL, sorry. Thought I'd post a laugh and lighten things up a bit.

[Andrew]

Shhhh...the night crew is napping before the 00Z suite starts....

You are very wise srain. Some of the best sleep I have received in a while.

[helloitsb]

did just realize that the 0z starts running in about 15 minutes hopefully it is hopeful or I will not be