January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

Yellowknife is currently -29 C. Sleet, Ojmjakon, Russia is -51 F. Temps falling to -76 F Sunday night before warmer rapidly to -38 F by Tuesday.

[Portastorm]

I won't let Heat Miser (Wxman57) buzz kill my 18z NAM run. There's a nice, circular 0-degree pocket who rolls southwest to northeast across my area based on the model run. Should it verify, (at least) sleet will fall atop the Portastorm Weather Center in southwest Travis County.

Keep hope alive!

[sleetstorm]

Thank you, srainhoutx. What about -50's ºF to -70's ºF, wxman57?

[randybpt]

Sleet if there were those mind of temps in NW canada then we would have a really good chance of having hard freeze but there not there. Obviously what has happened is the models may have picked.up the extreme cold siberia has been experiencing and tried to set up a crosspolar flow which has not happened

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-081000-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
402 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 37. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND SMALL STREAMS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
349 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOME NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF US 281 WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS MAINLY IN
URBANIZED AREAS. WEST OF US 281...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN 1 INCH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A PLEASANTON TO GONZALES TO LA GRANGE LINE. HAIL IS
THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD A
WARMER AIRMASS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY
ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-080700-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...COLD WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND AREA WIDE
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND
EAST OF A JACKSBORO TO HILLSBORO TO PALESTINE LINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A BOWIE TO FORT WORTH TO CANTON
LINE...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SNOW OCCURS AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOWIE TO DFW TO CANTON
LINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO
DFW TO CANTON LINE.

THE SNOW FORECAST WILL CONTINUED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS THE EVENT
NEARS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REMAIN AWARE OF A POSSIBLE WINTER
WEATHER EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS.

[C2G]

What was I saying the other day, oh here it is?

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

[Andrew]

What was I saying the other day, oh here it is?

Uh oh here comes the hype....lol.
Board will be active for a day or two until this hype gets squished. Soon, the winter weather will be reduced to counties in far northeast Texas...........with the possibility of seeing an ice pellet in the greater Houston area.

I don't think wintry weather was ever in play for Houston metro area.

[sleetstorm]

Okay, randybpt, I was just asking.

[Ptarmigan]

So, no major freeze at this time? I looked at the 8 day forecast and there is rain next Friday and even heavier rain in 2 weeks for the following Friday.

[srainhoutx]

So, no major freeze at this time? I looked at the 8 day forecast and there is rain next Friday and even heavier rain in 2 weeks for the following Friday.

We shall see...

[ticka1]

I know some numbers have the discussed on how much rain we will get? Can someone post how much is suggested?

[Ptarmigan]

I know some numbers have the discussed on how much rain we will get? Can someone post how much is suggested?

January 8-9=1.81
Janaury 14-15=0.68
January 18-22=1.28

As of 1800Z. Looks like GFS is forecasting a wet January.

[wxman666]

Update on severe wx threat: HGX back and forth on organization and intensity of possible severe storms. Latest AFD update suggests severe weather is possible...especially near the coast. Heavy rain threat looks pretty vicious....1-3" commonplace and widespread, 4"+ not out of the question. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible Saturday night...esp. near the coast. Special Wx Statements issued for the Austin/San Antonio as well the Corpus Christi CWA outlining severe and heavy rain threat fairly well....then cold temperatures afterwards. Some of our other members have posted these statements already. NWS FWD has issued a statement for the D/FW CWA outlining a snow threat. Dallas proper has a 70% chance of a snow/sleet mix during the day on Sunday...and surrounding areas have an equal or greater chance. North of the immediate D/FW area, there is a greater chance of winter precipitation (mainly North of Interstate 20) for areas such as Denton to Wichita Falls to Jacksboro and Graham. Our other members are doing a great job of outlining this threat for winter weather...and have also mentioned Winter Storm Watches have been posted for NE TX. The Storm Prediction Center's day 1 outlook for Saturday will be released at or shortly before midnight tonight which will be a crucial update. Tomorrow will be the day to really buckle down and watch things so I will continue watching this severe wx threat and posting updates that have not yet been posted, while our other users are helping outline the winter wx threat. Looks like a bumpy ride this weekend guys...let's stay on top of our game.

[srainhoutx]

109 pages. Interesting...the 00Z's should worth watching...

01082011 00Z nam_500_024l.gif

01082011 00Z nam_ref_030l.gif

[srainhoutx]

Looking mighty wet across the Lone Star State via the 00Z NAM...

[losmabies]

Too bad there isn't much cold weather with that moisture in the Houston area.

[srainhoutx]

NAM suggests wintry weather across N LA. Some inpressive rainfall totals across TX. We need all the help in our drought situation that we can get, IMO.

01082011 00Z nam_p60_060l.gif

01082011 00Z NAM_221_2011010800_F60_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

[losmabies]

Absolutely. I didn't mean to sound like I wasn't thankful for the rain.