January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
3 PM SUNDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ONLY MINOR BEACH FLOODING AND LOW LYING COASTAL FLOOD
PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED.

TXZ214-237-238-090245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.Y.0001.110109T0600Z-110109T2100Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
1241 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING: AS WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TIDE LEVELS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0 WITH A FEW PLACES REACHING 3.5 TO
4.0 FEET.

* TIMING: THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN 4
AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: MINOR BEACH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA MAY FLOOD AS
WELL AS SOME LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE
OF GALVESTON BAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

NOTE...THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN
SEA LEVEL.

LOCATION HIGH TIDES EXPECTED
TIMES WATER LEVEL

MORGANS POINT...
SAT 12:46 AM 1.5 FEET

SUN 12:43 AM 2.8 FEET
SUN 11:02 AM 2.7 FEET

MON 12:38 AM 1.0 FEET
MON 1:45 PM 0.7 FEET

MANCHESTER...
SAT 12:54 AM 1.6 FEET
SAT 10:18 AM 1.1 FEET

SUN 1:05 AM 2.7 FEET
SUN 11:57 AM 2.8 FEET

MON 1:15 AM 2.0 FEET

ROLLOVER PASS...
SAT 11:00 PM 1.6 FEET

SUN 10:55 PM 3.5 FEET

MON 10:13 AM 0.7 FEET

EAGLE POINT...
SUN 12:37 AM 2.5 FEET
SUN 11:50 PM 2.5 FEET

MON 10:43 AM 0.6 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
SAT 7:55 PM 1.7 FEET

SUN 6:16 AM 3.8 FEET
SUN 8:14 PM 2.8 FEET

MON 8:16 AM 1.0 FEET

GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 6:52 PM 2.0 FEET

SUN 6:00 AM 3.9 FEET
SUN 7:16 PM 2.8 FEET

MON 7:30 AM 1.4 FEET

FREEPORT USCG...
SAT 3:50 AM 1.6 FEET
SAT 6:53 PM 2.0 FEET

SUN 5:09 AM 3.5 FEET
SUN 7:09 PM 3.9 FEET

MON 7:32 AM 1.3 FEET


$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HOUSTON

[srainhoutx]

HPC as updated...



DAY 1...

SERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

A WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EVENT WL BREAK OUT THIS PERIOD ACRS SERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW PUSHING EWD FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE S TX
OVERNIGHT...EWD ACRS ERN TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURG SUN.
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AT THE
MOMENT AS IT REMAINS CUTOFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF
WL SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACRS CNTRL TO
S TX...WITH THIS PCPN SHIELD EXPANDING NEWD EARLY SUN AND INTO THE
DAY TIME HOURS OF SUN INTO NERN TX/FAR SERN OK...SRN AR AND EWD
ACRS LA INTO WRN MS. MAX PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FROM SRN TX NEWD
ALONG THE CNTRL TO UPR TX COAST INTO SRN LA WHERE A CONVECTIVE MAX
IS EXPECTED IN THE NOSE OF THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF.
THE HI RES ARW/NMM WERE MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A COASTAL CONVECTIVE
MAX THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THIS
SOLN. FARTHER NORTH...A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND
WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS NEWD INTO NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/SRN
AR. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THIS COMMA HEAD WHERE COLD TEMPS WL SUPPORT HVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

[srainhoutx]

From Lake Charles NWS...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-090600-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
103 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

COLD AIR FILTERING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...NO SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK TIDE LEVELS REACHING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. TIDES WILL DROP RAPIDLY LATER IN THE DAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST.

[srainhoutx]

12Z UKMET suggests a mighty close call for our Northern areas regarding any wintry weather chances.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 18Z NAM suggests a bit more wrap around moisture as the low moves off to the E. It looks mighty wet folks and there does appear to be a possible brief chance for some wintry mix across the Northern Zones via that model. We shall see.

[ticka1]

Thanks for all the updates srainhoutx! Its going to be an interesting evening - long night and day tomorrow into the night for weather for us here in SE Texas. I'm home sick in bed with a cold/sinus infection!

Hope the board gets more posting when the rains start!!! Which they have !

[Andrew]

Wow I just caught up on sleep and it felt great. I see a lot has developed this morning and this cut off could be pretty potent. Also wintry weather seems to be more of a factor farther south. Interesting days to come.

[srainhoutx]

Get better soon, ticka1. Our household has colds as well. I'd expect a new Special Weather Statement from HGX covering the rainfall, wind, coastal flooding issues with a mention of some possible wintry mix in the NE Zones. Model watching is almost over for this event. Stay warm and dry, folks. Late tonight into tomorrow does look mighty wet.

[Cuda17]

Here is HGX's HWO:

000
FLUS44 KHGX 082028
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ178-195>200-210>212-226-227-091400-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-LIBERTY-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
228 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

$$

TXZ163-164-176-177-179-091400-
HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-TRINITY-WALKER-
228 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL
PROFILES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SLEET OR SNOW
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGIN OF ERROR BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW
IS VERY SMALL AND IF TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW AND POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT SO THERE
COULD BE SOME ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ213-214-235>238-091400-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
228 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NOON CST...

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 2 PM
SUNDAY CST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER
ROADS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59. THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED TIDES TO THE COAST. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TIDE LEVELS WILL FALL
QUICKLY BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS. EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND EAST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

......WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-091000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.110109T0600Z-110109T1800Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
246 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST SUNDAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SUSTAINED EAST WINDS WILL APPROACH 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Andrew]

[Mrs.Frosty]

awww man , looks like the freeze line will be just north of where i am (NW Liberty County).

[Andrew]

awww man , looks like the freeze line will be just north of where i am (NW Liberty County).

Remember even though this is only a day away things can change. You never know when surprises will pop up.So don't loose all hope.

[Andrew]

Also NAM brings the 850mb 0 line farther south then a lot of other models

[Mrs.Frosty]

awww man , looks like the freeze line will be just north of where i am (NW Liberty County).

Remember even though this is only a day away things can change. You never know when surprises will pop up.So don't loose all hope.

Oh yes, i do have some hope for some flurries getting lost and come a bit further south.
We'll see.

[Andrew]

Also NAM brings the 850mb 0 line farther south then a lot of other models

Sadly, if you look at previous six hour precip at 24 and 30 hours and where the happy line is then, still looks like I-20 is approximate location of where the fun will be at tomorrow.

This is the more cheerful graphic for me, although the best rains are North and West of here.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048m.gif

I agree. I put up that graphic for the colder weather after the rain is gone not for the fun.

[srainhoutx]

How would you like to be the forecaster with this mess...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 20Z...SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTHWARD BUT HAVE BEEN ERODING ONCE THEY COME IN CONTACT
WITH THE DRIER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AZ AND THIS FEATURE
WILL HEAD EAST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST...IT WILL
INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RUDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
COAST. THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF EAST WINDS WILL CREATE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. SE TX WILL LIE IN A RRQ OF A SPLITTING JET. UPPER
LEVEL DYANMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH A SURGE IN
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HIGH RAIN CHANCES. SOME TRAINING
OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY SO A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SHOULD EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES SOUTH. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE
GULF AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HELICITIES ARE VERY HIGH
BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND NOT SEVERE THREAT. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE BRISK AND IF WIND ENERGY ALOFT CAN MIX TO THE
SURFACE...THEN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FURTHER NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL PROFILE THAT
STRADDLES THE ZERO ISOTHERM. AFTER 18Z...PARTS OF MADISON...
HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX. THE
NAM 12 IS THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS. GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
ALL WARMER AND SUGGEST ALL RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVER THE NORTH.
SUBTLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN WOULD HAVE GIGANTIC CONSEQUENCES ON
RAIN OR SNOW - AND ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE THE CONSENSUS IS
WARMER...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL HEAD INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH THE CLOUDS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HARD FREEZE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 20S. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK S/WV OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI-SUN. 43

[unome]

which tv forecaster nailed the X-mas Eve '04 snow miracle?

[unome]

Dallas NWS changed their forecast graphics "more uncertainty"

here's their latest audio briefing
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/010911/player.html