January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

Is there another Arctic front supposed to head our way next week?

We will get our FIRST front around Tues-Wed. We haven't received one yet.

What I meant was for the week of 1/17. I should have worded it right! Thanks!

Yea my bad. Srain understood what you meant. I start my weeks on Monday while many start on Sunday.

[Baseballdude2915]

Wow, front looses everything after hour 190. Gives us a short chill, but warms up pretty quickly afterward.

Oh well, time to enjoy the cold temperatures THIS week, next week can be worked on.

[wxman666]

First off I am going to give you a location to work with for my question - Jackson County 7 miles south of hwy. 59 at El Toro (25 miles west of Victoria) and Vanderbilt. At 4:53 NWS issued the severe thunderstorm warning and by 5 a.m. we had the train sound overhead for a very brief time. The radar showed what appeared to be a bow line as it approached us. This was a very colorful radar with purple, red and orange. We are curious if anyone has heard if it was a tornado or the downdraft winds.

Some of the damage done is large tree branches knocked out of trees, uprooted trees, holes in roofs, shingles missing, porch roofs and lean tos on barns were lifted up and over the buildings (torn completely off).

I am very thankful that I have found this forum because it was ya'lls posts that let me be aware of the chance of severe weather. This is also where I go for hurricane season being we are on the coast.

Thanks,
Kristi

Hi Kristi, the official report entered into the Storm Prediction, in coordination with the National Weather Service confirmed an EF-1 tornado in the city of Victoria. You can go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov and click on "reports" to see this report. Just be sure you click on yesterday's reports.

Better yet...here's a graphic from NWS Corpus Christi.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/crp/ ... _full1.gif

[Mr. T]

Suprised nobody has mentioned this, but the GFS gives us a decent chance at some passing flurries thursday...

84 01/13 12Z 35 24 46 5 0.00 0.00 541 570 -1.2 -18.1 1037.4 96 -SN 071BKN123 136BKN237 249SCT285 35 34 20.0

[Badfish]

appears lack of sleep has consumed everyone..................................crickets in here.

[srainhoutx]

Suprised nobody has mentioned this, but the GFS gives us a decent chance at some passing flurries thursday...

84 01/13 12Z 35 24 46 5 0.00 0.00 541 570 -1.2 -18.1 1037.4 96 -SN 071BKN123 136BKN237 249SCT285 35 34 20.0

Oh, it's been mentioned for several days. It’s nice to see HGX and FWD mentioning that possibility as well this morning. CRP mentions light rain as well during the late Wednesday/early Thursday time frame as well. Meanwhile, the Arctic front has pushed into the Panhandle this morning...

[sambucol]

6:00 am news this morning talked about chance of snow flurries midweek. I don't recall if was ch 11 or 2 but it was written into the forecast.

[Mr. Weather]

6:00 am news this morning talked about chance of snow flurries midweek. I don't recall if was ch 11 or 2 but it was written into the forecast.

I was just watching Fox 26 and they had it in there forecast as well they saying maybe late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning !!!

[srainhoutx]

It's sort of hard for them to not mention it when NWS offices from Lubbock to San Angelo to Dallas and Houston all speak of the chances. The short wave has trended slightly stronger over night with all the guidance. Low level moisture is the main concern, but with enough lift, who knows? Something to keep an eye on and at least not a total waste of the cold air entrenched for those that would like to see some very light wintry weather further S. We shall see. Those signal digit wind chills are going to be mighty uncomfortable as well.

[redneckweather]

Y'all do know that wxman will be in here shortly to squash any chances of wintry precip for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe don't y'all?

[wxman57]

Don't get your hopes up, it's probably not going to snow here. However, chances are not zero. That's "quash" by the way, not squash. Realistically, I'd estimate our chances at <5% of seeing a few flakes with the passing disturbance. Moisture may be confined to a VERY thin layer between 7000-10,000 ft.

Sure is a mess in Atlanta. Was looking at the latest from their NWS office and they're forecasting 2" of sleet, 1/4" of freezing rain and 5" snow. Glad it's not here.

[wxman57]

You're an evil man not to want me to roll in my icy yard tomorrow with my children who have canceled school as I heed Judge Emmet's advice to stay off the roads.

It's not a question of what I want. I do get excited when we're going to see snow on the Gulf Coast. I'm just not excited this week.

[harpman]

GFS should be running now. Someone let us know the results. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

GFS should be running now. Someone let us know the results. Thanks.

Mid level moisture at the 700mb level and a touch stronger short wave, for what it's worth for mid week.

[wxman57]

Look at the pressure over Houston on that map, though - 1031mb or so. A very general rule of thumb is that the precip falls when the surface pressure is 1020mb or less (from my coworker). Just have to hope for more moisture for the disturbance to work with.

Here's a sounding from the 12Z GFS valid for 6AM CST Thursday. Just a couple of thin cloud layers around 10,000ft and 20,000ft. They're both in a sub-freezing airmass, though.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like we will not get to the 50's today as forecasted. Low level inversion looks rather stout and that would tend to keep low clouds across the area. Stuck at 38 degrees in NW Harris County at this time.

[harpman]

Since it's quiet in here, can someone give me an opinion about the New Orleans area with this disturbance? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Since it's quiet in here, can someone give me an opinion about the New Orleans area with this disturbance? Thanks.

Things dry out the more E you are with High Pressure situated directly to your N over AR/E TN, if the GFS is correct.

[wxman57]

Since it's quiet in here, can someone give me an opinion about the New Orleans area with this disturbance? Thanks.

Sorry, harpman, latest GFS indicates even less moisture aloft over New Orleans than over Houston this Thursday. It only indicates a thin layer of cirrus clouds on Thursday.

[harpman]

Thanks to both of you!