February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Hey y'all. CPC shows an interesting HWO update. Heavy "precip" outlined for the area Feb 2-3, as well as "Much below normal temps" for the entire state of TX and then some.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

NWS seems to predict a colder February 1-2 and heavy rain 2-3. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....................

[Ptarmigan]

For Northwest Harris County the NWS has a 20 percent chance of precipitation on wednesday night with a low of 25....

Code: Select all

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

[wxman666]

Hey y'all. CPC shows an interesting HWO update. Heavy "precip" outlined for the area Feb 2-3, as well as "Much below normal temps" for the entire state of TX and then some.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

NWS seems to predict a colder February 1-2 and heavy rain 2-3. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....................

Yup. But is that depicting when the cold air filters south, or how long it will stay? And doesn't it normally say heavy "rain" when they're confident it'll be rain, vs. heavy "precip?" I seem to remember that last summer.

[Andrew]

Well after a 3 hour nap I feel ready for the 00z models. Speaking of the GFS it is coming in farther west and stronger so far:

Edit: cold air lags again in panhandle. The moisture is a little slower though.

[Ptarmigan]

Yup. But is that depicting when the cold air filters south, or how long it will stay? And doesn't it normally say heavy "rain" when they're confident it'll be rain, vs. heavy "precip?" I seem to remember that last summer.

I think the forecast will change. So much uncertainty.

[Ptarmigan]

Probability of seeing +6" snow in a given area. For us, about every 100 years.

[wxman666]

Well after a 3 hour nap I feel ready for the 00z models. Speaking of the GFS it is coming in farther west and stronger so far:

Welcome to the par-tay! Things look quite different today.

[TXStormjg]

I'm not new to this forum, as I have been busy with other things. I will say this, and I hope folks heed it: If, and I do mean if we do get into a winter weather session, as many seem to think (and wish), I hope they all know to STAY HOME, if the local stations give that advice!

I remember back when, when we had a rather minor icing event, and the major havoc it caused on the roads. If you have never driven on ice, allow me to give a brief idea: You are cruising along the highway, with nothing exciting going on. Suddenly, you realize you are lookig out your windshield, and the world is spinning. Guess what? It aint the world spinning...it's YOU!! Do you know what to do if you realize you are in a totally uncontrollable spin? No? Well, there ya go; stay home! If you have, think about the other guy out there who has no idea what to do if he hits ice!!! Enough said!!

With that being said, I kinda hope we do see some of the white stuff. My kids would certanly love it, and it could mean a day off for me. But, as a Storm Spotter, I might be one of those out there getting reports...who knows!! Have to take a wait and see attitude here!

[wxman666]

I'm not new to this forum, as I have been busy with other things. I will say this, and I hope folks heed it: If, and I do mean if we do get into a winter weather session, as many seem to think (and wish), I hope they all know to STAY HOME, if the local stations give that advice!

I remember back when, when we had a rather minor icing event, and the major havoc it caused on the roads. If you have never driven on ice, allow me to give a brief idea: You are cruising along the highway, with nothing exciting going on. Suddenly, you realize you are lookig out your windshield, and the world is spinning. Guess what? It aint the world spinning...it's YOU!! Do you know what to do if you realize you are in a totally uncontrollable spin? No? Well, there ya go; stay home! If you have, think about the other guy out there who has no idea what to do if he hits ice!!! Enough said!!

With that being said, I kinda hope we do see some of the white stuff. My kids would certanly love it, and it could mean a day off for me. But, as a Storm Spotter, I might be one of those out there getting reports...who knows!! Have to take a wait and see attitude here!

No way would I drive on ice. That's just plain idiotic. Good advice though.

[Andrew]

GFS keeps the cold air in place longer

[wxman666]

GFS keeps the cold air in place longer

Bingo. That's what I was wondering.

[Mr. Weather]

would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS is colder than the 12z and 18z runs, but not the extrodanary cold of the Euro and CMC

[Andrew]

would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?

To tell you the truth I don't think we will know until the event actually happens. Timing is such an issue even the smallest change in timing could mean the difference between rain and some sort of wintry mix. The chances are going up as of last night I didn't think we had much of a chance of anything and now we actually have a chance.

[Mr. Weather]

would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?

To tell you the truth I don't think we will know until the event actually happens. Timing is such an issue even the smallest change in timing could mean the difference between rain and some sort of wintry mix. The chances are going up as of last night I didn't think we had much of a chance of anything and now we actually have a chance.

good to know thanks for all the updates !!!

[Mr. T]

0z cmc still has the -10 850 line reaching Houston.

[Andrew]

0z cmc still has the -10 850 line reaching Houston.

Yea but not to mention it stays colder even longer! The -10 line stays around for 1-2 days!

Also we are so close to a wintry mix in this run it is killing me.

[Mr. T]

Yea but not to mention it stays colder even longer! The -10 line stays around for 1-2 days!

Also we are so close to a wintry mix in this run it is killing me.

This cmc run is even slightly colder than the 12z run!

This would be fun on the bun if the gfs could just jump on board already... This is day 6 now

[Andrew]

Yea but not to mention it stays colder even longer! The -10 line stays around for 1-2 days!

Also we are so close to a wintry mix in this run it is killing me.

This cmc run is even slightly colder than the 12z run!

This would be fun on the bun if the gfs could just jump on board already... This is day 6 now

Yea I have seen the Euro and CMC throw out crazy runs like this but being only 6 days out and the consistency is just amazing! I was fully expecting the 00z cmc to show a warmer solution but no! The cmc has the 850mb 0c line staying with us for 50 hours!

Also look how close the moisture is:

[Mr. T]

The 0z gfs took a step towards the cmc and euro by taking the Pacific system quicker and further to the south... The gfs misses a full phase by a hair