February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[biggerbyte]

The last time it snowed here on Feb. 2, I was just a young boy with a broken leg. Talk about disappointed. All I could do was look out the window.

[TexasMetBlake]

In Jordan, MT, they are predicting -27 for a low Monday night!!! That's when you know this is real...

[BiggieSmalls]

In Jordan, MT, they are predicting -27 for a low Monday night!!! That's when you know this is real...

Dallas TV is now saying that it won't get above freezing on Wednesday or Thursday, with lows at night of 14-17. Any chance it drops even more than that?

[harpman]

One of the local young TV mets here, who is from Michigan originally, just mentioned the possibility of flurries for us here in s.e. La. Thursday night into Friday morning.

[TexasMetBlake]

In Jordan, MT, they are predicting -27 for a low Monday night!!! That's when you know this is real...

Dallas TV is now saying that it won't get above freezing on Wednesday or Thursday, with lows at night of 14-17. Any chance it drops even more than that?

Certainly. The rule of thumb that I learned from my co-worker is the temp in Houston is **usually** 10 degrees warmer than Dallas' low. I guarantee you we'll be below 27 degrees for a low. Bush could very well hit 16 to 18 degrees. Get this....the MEX guidance is showing 19 degrees at IAH. This model is geared towards Climo in the extended. If it is showing 19 degrees with a warm bias, just think how cold it COULD get at IAH? Scary..of course, it's ALL DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS...

[wxman666]

Nothing has changed for our area. Confirmation for us is just a day or two off, and there are some things to watch for between now and then that could alter current thinking on temps. Right now, it just looks like some of the same temp ranges we have already seen. Precip. is in question, but even that currently looks cold wet, but not frozen. Current forecast from the NWS will reflect these statements as well.

A word of caution. This is a developing situation. There is wiggle room, and changes in both temp and precip. forecasts are possible right down to a day or two before. I urge everyone to just pay attention and prepare for worse scenario. If the situation changes, it could be in a big way. Teens would be easily met in our area, with evolving possibilities, that if at the right times, could be frozen.

Sunday and Monday will be telling.

These are prob going to be the coldest temps of the year and possibly colder than last year.

This is deja vu for me from 2004 with NWS Hou/Gal saying "There will be no frozen precip" and then it started snowing...HEAVILY and they blanketed the area in a Heavy Snow Warning right down to Galveston Island, lol! In these situations, I take what they say with a grain of salt and make sure I'm prepared. It'd be wise for our members to do the same.

[C2G]

Huh? I recall the Houston/Galveston NWS mentioning the possibility of snow for southeast Texas a few days in advance.
At least in their discussions they mentioned it, because I recall being fired up all week waiting for Friday. They certainly didn't mention the possibility of 3 or 4 inches.

[wxman666]

Huh? I recall the Houston/Galveston NWS mentioning the possibility of snow for southeast Texas a few days in advance.
At least in their discussions they mentioned it, because I recall being fired up all week waiting for Friday. They certainly didn't mention the possibility of 3 or 4 inches.

Huh. Perhaps I am mistaken. I thought they had been keeping it on the down low...esp. since (if my memory serves me right) temps had been in the 70's & 80's earlier that week. I remember tracking it, but it seemed like it took them awhile to catch on. It started snowing/sleeting where I was before any alerts were issued. Wxman57, srain...perhaps you have some previous data or info that could help us remember?

[vci_guy2003]

The Christmas Eve snow of 2004, they were predicting winter precip a few days in advance, that is correct... but on Christmas Eve morning they had lessened the chance to almost nothing.. I remember because I was at the airport heading to Phoenix, and wasn't upset b/c I wouldn't be missing anything. So NWS messed that one up for sure. I was so pissed looking at the radar that night when it was all WHITE STUFF everywhere!

[Mr. T]

It'll be interesting to see how much rain we get tonight and early next week. Hopefully some of our northern zones recieve some heavy rain, as those counties are still in an "extreme drought", while areas to the south, like Harris County, are actually in the clear.

This month will end up well above normal for precip, which is very rare during moderate or strong La Nina ENSO events... Couple that with our monthy temperature being 1 to 2 degrees below normal, and it's like we've been in an El Nino instead

[jeff]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

[C2G]

They had been predicting the possibility of snow for a few days. When Friday came around I believe there were some reports in the Katy/west Houston area of flurries during the daytime. There were a few flurries during the day in Friendswood. I thought the event was over when I left at 7ish to visit one of my brothers in League City. While there it started snowing hard. Again by the time I made it home I thought the event was over until I took a look at the radar.
You're correct on the fact that they really didn't predict anything significant, certainly nothing like we received.

[sambucol]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

What kind of temps are we looking at for the Houston area? Thanks.

[jeff]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

What kind of temps are we looking at for the Houston area? Thanks.

GFS is showing 22 Thursday and 19 for Friday for IAH. Not ready to go that low just incase some weak overrunning clouds linger and help us out at night. If clouds clear look for teens N of US 59 possibly Thursday AM and more likely Friday AM. Looks like a freeze WED AM - Sat AM. Some locations may not get much above freezing on Wed and Thurs N of HWY 105

[sambucol]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

What kind of temps are we looking at for the Houston area? Thanks.

GFS is showing 22 Thursday and 19 for Friday for IAH. Not ready to go that low just incase some weak overrunning clouds linger and help us out at night. If clouds clear look for teens N of US 59 possibly Thursday AM and more likely Friday AM. Looks like a freeze WED AM - Sat AM. Some locations may not get much above freezing on Wed and Thurs N of HWY 105

Wow. Thanks.

[Andrew]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

What kind of temps are we looking at for the Houston area? Thanks.

GFS is showing 22 Thursday and 19 for Friday for IAH. Not ready to go that low just incase some weak overrunning clouds linger and help us out at night. If clouds clear look for teens N of US 59 possibly Thursday AM and more likely Friday AM. Looks like a freeze WED AM - Sat AM. Some locations may not get much above freezing on Wed and Thurs N of HWY 105

Thanks for your insight Jeff. We appreciate your opinion a lot.

[Baseballdude2915]

Well, myforecast.com is at it again.
As a wishcaster, it has become on of my favorite sites, although i take what it says with about 5% confidence.

Check it out.
http://myforecast.com/bin/expanded_fore ... tric=false

What model(s) does it somehow grab this wintry precip from?

[updraft]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

GFS is showing 22 Thursday and 19 for Friday for IAH. Not ready to go that low just incase some weak overrunning clouds linger and help us out at night. If clouds clear look for teens N of US 59 possibly Thursday AM and more likely Friday AM. Looks like a freeze WED AM - Sat AM. Some locations may not get much above freezing on Wed and Thurs N of HWY 105

Thanks for your insight Jeff. We appreciate your opinion a lot.[/quote][/quote]


Hey Andrew - just happened to notice that last post put you at 999 posts!! 1 more and you're at a 1,000. A nice milestone (not that anyone is keeping track)

[Andrew]

GFS has really cooled off for next week much more in line with the CM Cand ECMWF

GFS is showing 22 Thursday and 19 for Friday for IAH. Not ready to go that low just incase some weak overrunning clouds linger and help us out at night. If clouds clear look for teens N of US 59 possibly Thursday AM and more likely Friday AM. Looks like a freeze WED AM - Sat AM. Some locations may not get much above freezing on Wed and Thurs N of HWY 105

Thanks for your insight Jeff. We appreciate your opinion a lot.

[/quote]


Hey Andrew - just happened to notice that last post put you at 999 posts!! 1 more and you're at a 1,000. A nice milestone (not that anyone is keeping track) [/quote]

Well this is my 1000th post and you are in it Thanks though. To not make this post completly useless here is the NAM:

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[vci_guy2003]

Worst kind of cold coming. So not looking forward to it, unless we have clear skies and break all time record lows.