February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

NWS Houston is forecasting snow this week. The question is amount of snowfall if it falls on Friday.

[Ptarmigan]

just gets better by the minute..... I can handle snow....but like others I hate the cold.....wind chills in the single digits.

Stat guy- when was the last time we saw that in SE texas?

Which one?

[txsnowmaker]

Just a word of caution as snow forecasts enter the picture. Like others have been commenting today, sometimes a matter of a few miles can make all the difference. This was my point over the weekend when I said that six inches in Houston metro would be a huge deal, historic in fact for certain parts of the city. While Victoria, Pearland, and areas closer by in other parts of the city have seen more, in the more than 30 years I have lived in Houston, the most my part of town (Galleria area) has seen was in December 1989, when about two inches fell. That being said, these "opportunities" don't come often, and I think everyone here knows what I am hoping for this week--a blanket of snow for all in our entire region to enjoy. Good luck!

[Andrew]

Here we go:

[Rich]

HGX winter fun map for Friday!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=3

[cisa]

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nuby3]

I DEMAND EVERYONE SEND DAN THE ENERGY AND POSITIVITY THAT HE NEEDS TO BRING US THE BITTER COLD AND SNOW.
I ALSO DEMAND NO NEGATIVITY. NOT EVEN WXMAN CAN DOWNPLAY OR DENY THIS EVENT.
MY PREDICTION : MOST OF HARRIS COUNTY GETS 5 INCHES OF SNOW. AND WITH THAT BITTER COLD.
I SEE GENE NORMAN IS BEING NEGATIVE. HE ONLY SAYS A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES. UM,,NORMAN,,,YOU'RE WRONG,DEAD WRONG. AND THINK YOUR NORMAN NUMBER SUCKS.
EVERYONE,,, LETS HELP DAN DELIVER THIS. HE IS THE DIRECT ONE CAUSING ALL OF THIS

well, I must agree, the Norman number does suck.

[srainhoutx]

Greeting AZ. I see we are back to caps. Dan told me a long time ago that ya have to crawl, before ya walk. Never get bold on snow forecasts 24 hour out. The pattern (Deep Cold Air Mass in place and a disturbance passing through) does suggest the best chance we've seen in a while, though.

[djmike]

I DEMAND EVERYONE SEND DAN THE ENERGY AND POSITIVITY THAT HE NEEDS TO BRING US THE BITTER COLD AND SNOW.
I ALSO DEMAND NO NEGATIVITY. NOT EVEN WXMAN CAN DOWNPLAY OR DENY THIS EVENT.
MY PREDICTION : MOST OF HARRIS COUNTY GETS 5 INCHES OF SNOW. AND WITH THAT BITTER COLD.
I SEE GENE NORMAN IS BEING NEGATIVE. HE ONLY SAYS A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES. UM,,NORMAN,,,YOU'RE WRONG,DEAD WRONG. AND THINK YOUR NORMAN NUMBER SUCKS.
EVERYONE,,, LETS HELP DAN DELIVER THIS. HE IS THE DIRECT ONE CAUSING ALL OF THIS

well, I must agree, the Norman number does suck.

Sorry, I have to agree also...the Norman number is kinda stupid. Oh well, IT'S GONNA SNOW! THAT'S MY STORY AND I'M STICKING TO IT!

[tireman4]

I am not bashing, just saying...man Tim Heller was SOOO nonchalant about the snow this Friday. I suppose he still needs to be convinced. Oh well, long time until Friday....

[djmike]

I am not bashing, just saying...man Tim Heller was SOOO nonchalant about the snow this Friday. I suppose he still needs to be convinced. Oh well, long time until Friday....

It's because of that post put out bashing the Chronicle about there forecast on this event. Sad to say, but Heller was wrong on this weeks forecast and the Chronicle was right...he feels kind of stupid now so he's laying low....JMO

[updraft]

The leading edge of the Arctic boundary continues to dive S through the TX Panhandle. Out W, the trough digging S into the Baja region of MX as the storm begins to take shape...

I appreciate all the info you and the other contributers provide on this board - the best weather board. I've got an observation that I'm hoping you (or someone) can provide a little insight.

Bare with me - I'll try to explain the best I can: On the surface map you posted above - with the altimeter overlay (I hope that's right) - I can clearly see the leading edge of the frontal boundary as indicated by the N/S directions of the wind barbs. I haven't really paid attention to other Arctic fronts that steam-roll south, but I noticed on this boundary, the wind direction seems to flow into and up against the front from around all sides (best I can explain is imagining the face of a clock and 3 o'clock located just W of Little Rock, 6 o'clock just N of Waco, and 9 o'clock around Rosswell, NM. The wind direction flows into and against the boundary at each of these location) Noticing past fronts, I seem to remember seeing the wind from the SW flow to the NE against a frontal boundary (typical thunderstorm movement in Texas).

Is the "barrage" of wind direction from all sides a result of the speed and power of this particular boundary? Or is this A-typical for most Arctic fronts? Hope I didn't butcher this question too much and again, your insight and explanations are greatly appreciated.

[Mr. T]

It's because of that post put out bashing the Chronicle about there forecast on this event. Sad to say, but Heller was wrong on this weeks forecast and the Chronicle was right...he feels kind of stupid now so he's laying low....JMO

What did Tim forecast?

[Andrew]

Here are some pictures by Storm Spotter Live, Inc : StormSpotter.com and their thinking on the next day or so:

[srainhoutx]

The leading edge of the Arctic boundary continues to dive S through the TX Panhandle. Out W, the trough digging S into the Baja region of MX as the storm begins to take shape...

I appreciate all the info you and the other contributers provide on this board - the best weather board. I've got an observation that I'm hoping you (or someone) can provide a little insight.

Bare with me - I'll try to explain the best I can: On the surface map you posted above - with the altimeter overlay (I hope that's right) - I can clearly see the leading edge of the frontal boundary as indicated by the N/S directions of the wind barbs. I haven't really paid attention to other Arctic fronts that steam-roll south, but I noticed on this boundary, the wind direction seems to flow into and up against the front from around all sides (best I can explain is imagining the face of a clock and 3 o'clock located just W of Little Rock, 6 o'clock just N of Waco, and 9 o'clock around Rosswell, NM. The wind direction flows into and against the boundary at each of these location) Noticing past fronts, I seem to remember seeing the wind from the SW flow to the NE against a frontal boundary (typical thunderstorm movement in Texas).

Is the "barrage" of wind direction from all sides a result of the speed and power of this particular boundary? Or is this A-typical for most Arctic fronts? Hope I didn't butcher this question too much and again, your insight and explanations are greatly appreciated.

This is known as the start of a baroclinic process. Simple analogy that Doc often used was “Think of a ridge of high pressure as the mountain and low pressure as the valley". Wind tends to flow off the mountain into the valley. The stronger the ridge and the deeper the low, well you get the picture I suspect. This situation will likely blow up a very significant storm and pull down all that cold air straight S into MX.

[weatherguy425]

I hope this doesn't end up being one of those cases where the front goes too far south, and it becomes a mess trying to figure out when the front will actually get a big enough push east to get into houston.

[Mr. T]

I hope this doesn't end up being one of those cases where the front goes too far south, and it becomes a mess trying to figure out when the front will actually get a big enough push east to get into houston.

The unusually intense low that will be over the Arklatex region tomorrow will make sure the cold air makes an extremely rapid push from west to east through the morning.

Looks like the front is now entering the Wichita Falls area with a SW to NE configuration

[txflagwaver]

OK so no one in my neighborhood is covering anything...a couple moved plants into the garage...SO..after this "event" I will either be known as the crazy lady that thought it was going to freeze and made her yard look REALLY funny...or I'll be the crazy lady with the pretty plants in the yard....

[biggerbyte]

Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.

Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.

[Belmer]

OK so no one in my neighborhood is covering anything...a couple moved plants into the garage...SO..after this "event" I will either be known as the crazy lady that thought it was going to freeze and made her yard look REALLY funny...or I'll be the crazy lady with the pretty plants in the yard....


I went to The Home Depot today to buy some faucet covers, a few large tarps, and some stakes to put into the ground to hold the tarpes in place. The only thing I did today to get ready for this storm was cover up my faucets outside. I'm going to be putting the tarps over my plans tomorrow once the rain is gone. And move the plans in the garage. So I don't expect to see everyone covering anything up tonight. That would be probably after noon tomorrow. I'm sure that is all you will see. But if your neighborhood still doesn't have anything covered by after 3pm tomorrow. Just laugh and, you'll be the only one having the pretty plants in the Spring. haha


I don't know what happen. It showed I posted both paragraphs. The one on the very top was from 'txflagwaver' The one under that was from me replying to 'txflagwaver' Sorry if their was any confusion on that part.