February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[txsnowmaker]

Euro run through Friday out yet?

[Andrew]

Euro run through Friday out yet?

getting there.

[sleetstorm]

The current temperature here in Baytown is 27ºF with a dewpoint of 17ºF.

[Andrew]

Euro showing .22in QPF (.01 less than 12z) but 2m temps are slightly above freezing. I would think it would still be snow but yea too close to really say one way or another. Off to bed for me.

[Mr. T]

Euro showing .22in QPF (.01 less than 12z) but 2m temps are slightly above freezing. I would think it would still be snow but yea too close to really say one way or another. Off to bed for me.

As long as the column is below freezing, then the surface temps will not be an issue

I'm off to bed too. Need some sleep for Thursday and Friday...

[weather101]

Just north of Beaumont, tx. temp now at 21

[weather101]

water vapor image really starting to crank!

[TexasBreeze]

Just above freezing 2m temps should be lowered by wet bulb cooling processes. It still looks good to me and it may even be to 'warm' of a forecast anyways. I'm tired too.

[Baseballdude2915]

Just above freezing 2m temps should be lowered by wet bulb cooling processes. It still looks good to me and it may even be to 'warm' of a forecast anyways. I'm tired too.

The way temps busted tonight just goes to show the power of this air mass might be under estimated.
I'm thinking we will be just fine over night into Friday for snow. Tomorrow we watch the 'birth' of the event.
Night all.

[vci_guy2003]

2am temp in college station: 15F.
Probable bust below forecasted 14F.

Correction : temp taken from Tower Point reporting station.

[biggerbyte]

Guys... Lol.. Do I need to go back to being skeptical of this snow event? I agreed to be a bit more optimistic. There are a few possibilities working against us. To be honest.... Taking those things, and realizing where we are with this situation today, still not being certain and all, I think it best to lean back to the pessimistic side. I may jump back on board tonight when things become a bit more clearer. Like you guys said.. This big all snow event is not yet set in stone. It never was.

More later, folks. Let's not panic yet. We still have wiggle room.

[unome]

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 19/20 in Cypress, darn wind makes it feel like 0

Wundermap: http://tinyurl.com/4us96cf

[TexasMetBlake]

Temps have really become stagnant over the area. It's been 22 at IAH for a couple of hours now and 19 in other locations. May drop another degree, but it looks like IAH escaped teens. Latest forecast discussion calls for a Winter Storm Watch.

[TexasMetBlake]

Houston:

...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...

...POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLAMMED THROUGH SE TX YESTERDAY
MORNING AND DROPPED TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BEHIND IT. TEMPS THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE
TX...LOW 20S FOR HOUSTON AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 20S ALONG
THE COAST. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE GROUND HOG SAYS...WINTER ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED EACH NIGHT AND
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SO HERE`S THE SET UP...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING. THERE IS A POTENT JET STREAM ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREES THAT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POLAR JET OF
100KTS AT 300MB TO BECOME SW/NE ORIENTED OVER TX WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO W TX THU NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
WELL OFF THE COAST BUT SUPPORT MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS INLAND. QG FORCING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRI. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX
00Z-06Z FRI AND SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 21Z FRI TO 00Z SAT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE WINTER EVENT WILL BE THE MAIN TRICK.
THINK THAT TO START OUT...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET CHANGING TO SNOW BY 06Z FRI. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
USING TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY SUPPORT PRECIP BECOMING SNOW BETWEEN
06Z-18Z FRI. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS ALSO SHOW
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAYER OF AIR AROUND 850MB AT 0C TO 2C WHICH
STRETCHES INLAND ALONG THE COAST AND TOWARDS THE HOUSTON AREA.
THE CANADIAN MODEL SUPPORTS THIS WHERE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
COLDER. THIS MEANS THAT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
LAYER OF AIR ABOVE FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MORE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES. HOWEVER...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
MESOSCALE FORCING THROUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS THAT
WOULD ALLOW WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS (EVAPORATIVE COOLING) TO COOL
THIS LAYER OF WARMER AIR BELOW FREEZING AND PRECIP CHANGES OVER
THE SNOW. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SNOW AS MAIN PRECIP TYPE
FOR INLAND AREAS FROM 06Z TO 18Z FRI BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN THE CHANGING TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES.

THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH SNOW/SLEET/ICE CAN BE
EXPECTED. GIVEN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS...THINKING FOR THE
WHOLE EVENT OF MAYBE A TENTH TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
PRECIP. THIS COULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET.
SHOULD THE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP...COULD SEE A TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF ICE DEVELOP. THESE TOTALS WILL WARRANT A WINTER
WEATHER WATCH AND WARNINGS FOR THE AREA. THE BEST GUESS FOR WHERE
THESE TOTALS COULD OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON ANY MESOSCALE BANDING THE
DEVELOP. POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE IN THESE BANDS
OF PRECIP OR NEXT TO NOTHING IF OUTSIDE WHERE THE BANDS SET UP.
RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE BANDS WILL BE THROUGH
THE US 59 CORRIDOR FROM VICTORIA...HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND. THIS IS
ALL BASED OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND WILL BE WATCH CLOSELY FOR
ANY CHANGES.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS. BUT THE
LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN LINE WITH THE
OLDER GFS RUNS. FOR NOW...FORECAST KEPT WITH GFS WITH THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING LIKE THE ECMWF. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE COLD BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MOST RECENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS. STILL FREEZING TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK.

[Katdaddy]

24F with a wind chill of 15F in League City

[PaulEInHouston]

Morning all...morning neighbor!

Current 24.4 °F WNDSP 8.1 WNDG 17.3 NW HUM75% BAR30.381 PREC0.00

[TXStormjg]

19 degrees and windchill of 4 here in Hockley....

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I see clouds have moved in overnight and it's 18.2F up here this morning. Anyone think we will not get above freezing today?

[PaulEInHouston]

Good morning. I see clouds have moved in overnight and it's 18.2F up here this morning. Anyone think we will not get above freezing today?

Morning Steve (is that right)?

Great question. I think coastal areas might see just above for a short period, but wouldn't be surprised, especially with the winds and CAA that temps stay at/near/below for areas along/N of I-10...IMHO

[PaulEInHouston]

I'm going to modify my web page radar overlays tonight to shift to winter precip mode...supposedly shows better resolution and targets/tops/VIL with lower Dbz readings.