February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman57]

I wonder if that is lake effect snow. Wxman57, Candy Cane, Jeff?.......

That's what I was thinking - "Lakes" effect snow?

[tireman4]

I wonder if that is lake effect snow. Wxman57, Candy Cane, Jeff?.......

That's what I was thinking - "Lakes" effect snow?

Wxman57,

This is a serious question, but may come off sounding dumb. LOL. I am runner, so you know we are nuts. Can there be a thing such as Ship Channel Effect snow? Meaning the one that is near you and I (very near in this case). Just curious. It is a body of water. Heat does rise.

[michmich]

Gaahhhh. Electricity went off at the house this morning and has now gone off twice at our office. Guess we're the lucky "brownout participants"!

[wxman57]

Wxman57,

This is a serious question, but may come off sounding dumb. LOL. I am runner, so you know we are nuts. Can there be a thing such as Ship Channel Effect snow? Meaning the one that is near you and I (very near in this case). Just curious. It is a body of water. Heat does rise.

Not all runners are nuts, but I'll take your word for it that you are nuts. Lake-effect snow results from cold air blowing across a relatively warm body of water. The air doesn't care if it's fresh or salt water, or if it is a lake, river or ocean. You can read more about it here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake-effect_snow

[srainhoutx]

GFS is running...

[tireman4]

Not all runners are nuts, but I'll take your word for it that you are nuts

Thank you sir.

[biggerbyte]

It can be as much as 48 hours, to as little as 12. The larger would have been Tuesday night. They will not delay past Thursday morning. Going for the lesser time means uncertainty in the forecast. They wait as long as they can, but due to the greater probability than not of hazardous weather, they must go ahead and warn the public. Don't panic, folks. It just means not 100%, but greater than 50%.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is colder aloft and suggests more moisture as well...

02022011 12Z GFS f42.gif

02022011 12Z GFS f48.gif

02022011 12Z GFS f54.gif

02022011 12Z GFS f60.gif

[Baseballdude2915]

The GFS is colder aloft and suggests more moisture as well...

[redneckweather]

Plentiful sunshine here in the Spring area now. I would expect a slow climb but it looks like thicker cloud cover could be moving in. If it does then that should slow down the temps from rising too much.

[srainhoutx]

I'm having a heat wave. A big jump to 21.5F at this hour...morning low was 18.2F...

[biggerbyte]

Interesting to note that impact has changed their forecast for snow accumulations. It is now 1 to 3 inches in a swath from southwest to northeast, starting in south/southcentral Texas, to Northeast Texas. It just clips Harris and Montgomery Counties. It would seem redneck would maybe see the love, depending on where he is located up there. Areas east of that show a trace to 2 inches.

What a bizarre change.

[Katdaddy]

Corpus Christi AFD morning update:

WILL BE LOOKING THROUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA BUT LIKELIHOOD
FOR WINTER STORM WATCH IS GOING UP FOR WINTRY MIX AND CONCERN FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A BIT DISCONCERTING
IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE DONE SO POORLY WITH CURRENT
CLOUD DECK OVER REGION.

I am thinking the precip may begin earlier than expected tomorrow

[tireman4]

Corpus Christi AFD morning update:

WILL BE LOOKING THROUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA BUT LIKELIHOOD
FOR WINTER STORM WATCH IS GOING UP FOR WINTRY MIX AND CONCERN FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A BIT DISCONCERTING
IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE DONE SO POORLY WITH CURRENT
CLOUD DECK OVER REGION.

I am thinking the precip may begin earlier than expected tomorrow

Candy Cane mentioned that his HGX source stated they would (HGX) put the WSW up when others (Corpus and Austin) pulled the trigger. Maybe this is what HGX is looking for.

[MRG93415]

The following school closing alerts have come in to Eyewitness News:

Spring ISD schools will dismiss three hours after their regular start time.

College of the Mainland -- All campuses are closed due to the power outages. Campuses will be open tomorrow at 8 a.m., Thursday, February 3, 2011.

First Baptist Academy Houston is closing at noon today due to power outages. Please pick up your child by noon.

WOW, this power outage is pretty bad..

[wxman57]

Interesting to note that impact has changed their forecast for snow accumulations. It is now 1 to 3 inches in a swath from southwest to northeast, starting in south/southcentral Texas, to Northeast Texas. It just clips Harris and Montgomery Counties. It would seem redneck would maybe see the love, depending on where he is located up there. Areas east of that show a trace to 2 inches.

What a bizarre change.

That would reflect a band of slightly heavier snow associated with the core of the upper low as it tracks across the state.

[Mr. T]

We probably will reach above freezing today with the breaks in the clouds, but that thick overcast over W TX will be heading this way tommorow, so we'll probably have a shot to not reach freezing tomorrow through friday evening

[Mr. T]

The 12z GFS gives parts of Central and North Texas some snow next tuesday, and even us some flurries.... Another hard freeze, of course

[harpman]

Believe it or not, we are getting reports of snow about 25 to 30 miles west of New Orleans.

[updraft]

I apologize if someone has already posted as I haven't gone back through the forum ....

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CenterPoint Energy begins systematic rolling outages
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares statewide electrical emergency
HOUSTON – Feb. 2, 2011 – CenterPoint Energy has started planned, controlled rolling outages following an order from ERCOT to curtail delivery of power to end-use customers in its greater Houston service territory. Beginning about 5:45 a.m., CenterPoint Energy began implementing up to 45-minute systematic outages to an average of 330,000 customers on a rotating basis.

“This is a state-wide emergency and CenterPoint Energy is complying with direct orders from ERCOT,” said Scott Prochazka, division senior vice president of CenterPoint Energy’s electric transmission and delivery operations. “Although we realize this is an inconvenience for our customers, these controlled rolling outages are planned emergency measures designed to avoid potentially longer, and more widespread power outages. We will continue these rolling outages until we receive direction from ERCOT that the electric supply in Texas has stabilized.”

CenterPoint Energy has pre-determined which circuits/power lines will be systematically brought off-line or curtailed across its entire service territory in order to achieve the load reduction requested by ERCOT. The company’s goal is to avoid turning off circuits to facilities vital to safety, health and welfare, such as hospitals, water treatment plants and public service facilities.

ERCOT is the organization entrusted to keep electric power flowing to approximately 20 million Texas customers – representing 85 percent of the state’s electric load and about 75 percent of the Texas land area. As the Independent System Operator for Texas, ERCOT manages the scheduling of power on an electric grid.

CenterPoint Energy, Inc., headquartered in Houston, Texas, is a domestic energy delivery company that includes electric transmission & distribution, natural gas distribution and sales, and interstate pipeline and gathering operations. The company serves nearly five million metered customers primarily in Arkansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.
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From a power generating standpoint, the system appears stable for the near-term. Power plants in the area have rebounded and stabilized, with a few still having some local issues. Trying to verify some info - I'll post update soon.