February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
Fox just said a cold rain for the coast..not even FR is this true?
email from Jeff Lindner Thursday morning:
***Winter Storm Warning issued for all of SE TX, coastal bend, S TX, and SW LA***
Historic winter storm event within 8-12 hours of starting.
Do not think we will get the entire evening rush hour in before the event starts.
I will begin hourly updates starting at 100pm this afternoon.
Discussion:
Powerful upper level low continues to dig into northern Mexico this morning with increasing moisture clearly noted on radar and satellite images. Starting to get a few returns on the radar images this morning, but very dry sub-cloud layer is evaporating prior to the precip. reaching the ground..this process will continue for the morning before the low levels saturate and then the main show begins. Looks at the forecast soundings this morning, still believe the best course of action is to go with more sleet and snow than ice and will go ahead and bump snowfall totals up a tad across the entire area to fit with more snow than sleet/freezing rain.
Timing:
Starting to see some light sleet over Galveston Island in the last hour and echoes on the radar are increasing along the US 59 corridor and down around Corpus Christi. So far only GLS has reported anything reaching the ground as that low level air mass is very dry. Expect to see the radar echoes intensify this morning and saturate the low levels first on the coast and then spreading inland. It is very hard to determine how long it will take to bring the low levels to saturation, but once that point is reached precip. will reach the ground. Will go with onset of precip. reaching the ground 1-2pm along the coast and 300-400pm along US 59 including metro Houston and then all regions by 600pm. Road conditions will deteriorate very quickly once precip onsets with road temperatures at or below freezing both on bridges/overpasses and on surface streets.
Accumulations:
Will hit the entire area with 1-3 inches this includes the coastal bend, all of SE TX and into SW LA. Feel along and about 40-50 miles NW of US 59 is where the greatest totals will be with isolated amounts upwards of 4-5 inches possible. The only location where some freezing rain may fall is right along the coast from Freeport to Galveston Island and then inland toward southern Liberty County…will go with ice accumulations of .1-.25 of an inch in this region and then an inch of snow on top of the ice. Models continue to advertise convective nature to the event supporting the threat of meso bands with heavy snow. SPC has in fact placed a large part of the area under a thunderstorm risk for tonight supporting the threat for some convective events within the overall snow shield.
It is likely that everyone will see some accumulation, but where the biggest totals will be is nearly impossible to predict under the event is underway.
Temperatures:
Expect temperatures to hover at or below freezing all day and then in the mid to upper 20’s tonight and below freezing all day on Friday. May see a few locations rise to near 32-35 for an hour Friday afternoon if skies clear, but a rapid fall Friday night under clearings skies and light winds…with snow cover will result in lows back into the low 20’s for nearly all areas.
Travel:
Extremely dangerous travel conditions will be developing across the entire region and by early evening surface travel will be difficult. Travel on Friday will be nearly impossible and all residents are being urged to drive only if it is an emergency. Do not expect roads to recover until maybe sometime on Saturday afternoon. Ground crews will attempt to keep sanding operations ongoing, but given the size of this event will quickly be overwhelmed
Aviation:
It is going to get bad at the airports and suspect ground operations will not be able to keep the airports open. Continental has already cancelled all operations starting at 300pm today until noon Friday. Aircraft that depart will require extensive de-icing operations and snow removal operations for runways. Suspect at some point likely tonight that these operations will be suspended due to the storm intensity.
Power:
ERCOT has ordered another round of rotating blackouts from 600-800am this morning to conserve power on the TX grid. With more of a threat of snow/sleet feel that most power infrastructure will be OK during this event, except near the coast and Galveston bay where freezing rain may be possible with some ice accumulations.
***Winter Storm Warning issued for all of SE TX, coastal bend, S TX, and SW LA***
Historic winter storm event within 8-12 hours of starting.
Do not think we will get the entire evening rush hour in before the event starts.
I will begin hourly updates starting at 100pm this afternoon.
Discussion:
Powerful upper level low continues to dig into northern Mexico this morning with increasing moisture clearly noted on radar and satellite images. Starting to get a few returns on the radar images this morning, but very dry sub-cloud layer is evaporating prior to the precip. reaching the ground..this process will continue for the morning before the low levels saturate and then the main show begins. Looks at the forecast soundings this morning, still believe the best course of action is to go with more sleet and snow than ice and will go ahead and bump snowfall totals up a tad across the entire area to fit with more snow than sleet/freezing rain.
Timing:
Starting to see some light sleet over Galveston Island in the last hour and echoes on the radar are increasing along the US 59 corridor and down around Corpus Christi. So far only GLS has reported anything reaching the ground as that low level air mass is very dry. Expect to see the radar echoes intensify this morning and saturate the low levels first on the coast and then spreading inland. It is very hard to determine how long it will take to bring the low levels to saturation, but once that point is reached precip. will reach the ground. Will go with onset of precip. reaching the ground 1-2pm along the coast and 300-400pm along US 59 including metro Houston and then all regions by 600pm. Road conditions will deteriorate very quickly once precip onsets with road temperatures at or below freezing both on bridges/overpasses and on surface streets.
Accumulations:
Will hit the entire area with 1-3 inches this includes the coastal bend, all of SE TX and into SW LA. Feel along and about 40-50 miles NW of US 59 is where the greatest totals will be with isolated amounts upwards of 4-5 inches possible. The only location where some freezing rain may fall is right along the coast from Freeport to Galveston Island and then inland toward southern Liberty County…will go with ice accumulations of .1-.25 of an inch in this region and then an inch of snow on top of the ice. Models continue to advertise convective nature to the event supporting the threat of meso bands with heavy snow. SPC has in fact placed a large part of the area under a thunderstorm risk for tonight supporting the threat for some convective events within the overall snow shield.
It is likely that everyone will see some accumulation, but where the biggest totals will be is nearly impossible to predict under the event is underway.
Temperatures:
Expect temperatures to hover at or below freezing all day and then in the mid to upper 20’s tonight and below freezing all day on Friday. May see a few locations rise to near 32-35 for an hour Friday afternoon if skies clear, but a rapid fall Friday night under clearings skies and light winds…with snow cover will result in lows back into the low 20’s for nearly all areas.
Travel:
Extremely dangerous travel conditions will be developing across the entire region and by early evening surface travel will be difficult. Travel on Friday will be nearly impossible and all residents are being urged to drive only if it is an emergency. Do not expect roads to recover until maybe sometime on Saturday afternoon. Ground crews will attempt to keep sanding operations ongoing, but given the size of this event will quickly be overwhelmed
Aviation:
It is going to get bad at the airports and suspect ground operations will not be able to keep the airports open. Continental has already cancelled all operations starting at 300pm today until noon Friday. Aircraft that depart will require extensive de-icing operations and snow removal operations for runways. Suspect at some point likely tonight that these operations will be suspended due to the storm intensity.
Power:
ERCOT has ordered another round of rotating blackouts from 600-800am this morning to conserve power on the TX grid. With more of a threat of snow/sleet feel that most power infrastructure will be OK during this event, except near the coast and Galveston bay where freezing rain may be possible with some ice accumulations.
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wxman57
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No offense. I'd like to wake up to 3-5" of snow tomorrow, myself. It's the only thing winter is any good for. But I'm planning on just a bit of snow on the grass and rooftops.Andrew wrote:
Well thanks for your input wxman. Don't take any offense when I say I hope you are completely wrong with your prediction for today and tomm.
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Andrew
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wxman57 wrote:No offense. I'd like to wake up to 3-5" of snow tomorrow, myself. It's the only thing winter is any good for. But I'm planning on just a bit of snow on the grass and rooftops.Andrew wrote:
Well thanks for your input wxman. Don't take any offense when I say I hope you are completely wrong with your prediction for today and tomm.
That is acceptable. We are in se Texas. I'll take anything.
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I surely don't want to contradict anything Jeff say's, but concerning ERCOT and power grid, just got off a conference call and as of 7:40am, ERCOT is currently NOT implementing rolling blackouts and do not expect any for the next couple of hours. The main difference-maker between yesterday at this time and today is local temps are some 10 degrees warmer - which most power plant equipment has adequate freeze protection to deal with temps hovering around 30-32 degrees. Power plants in the Houston zone are not experiencing too many issues and should be minimal in the near-term and power production adequate. However, with the North zones significantly colder, there is a risk of generation issues and units coming off line which would affect the Houston area.
But again, with high demand and a small reserve of generation, it would only take one or two large units to come off-line and ERCOT would then need to shed load and begin rolling blackouts. And Jeff is correct about the infrastructure being OK except for those close to the coast with ice.
But again, with high demand and a small reserve of generation, it would only take one or two large units to come off-line and ERCOT would then need to shed load and begin rolling blackouts. And Jeff is correct about the infrastructure being OK except for those close to the coast with ice.
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
Here in beaumont. Im pretty sure we wont get much maybe little freezing rain Sleet. Snow maybe early friday but I don't think we will have any issues with roads. Temps are running 30-32 across the area probably rise in mid thirties so its go.to.take evaporated cooling to start out with. Wished I was wrong but don't see any snow accumulation in beaumont
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srainhoutx
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I'm seeing reports of light snow/sleet coming in now from the E TX Lakes Regions. Radar suggests we are beginning to moisten up and banding returns extends to our SW near the HWY 59 corridor. This is likely virga, but a hint of things to come.
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Can one of the pro mets chime in on the forecast of the coast only seeing rain and light sleet?
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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radiogirltx
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Calhoun County ISD (port lavaca, seadrift,port oconnor) just announced they will dismiss at 1230 today, and no school tomorrow. 
http://www.calcoisd.org
Now, onto a quick question. What is your fav radar when watching winter weather unfold? I normally use the wundermap on wunderground, but is that my best bet when watching meso snow bands?
http://www.calcoisd.orgNow, onto a quick question. What is your fav radar when watching winter weather unfold? I normally use the wundermap on wunderground, but is that my best bet when watching meso snow bands?
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srainhoutx
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rnmm wrote:Can one of the pro mets chime in on the forecast of the coast only seeing rain and light sleet?
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I was just looking at that too Srain ..... Banding is alot like training of Thunderstorms in the summer. This band is setup right smack dab on top of US59 .... This is getting more interesting as the morning wears on.srainhoutx wrote:I'm seeing reports of light snow/sleet coming in now from the E TX Lakes Regions. Radar suggests we are beginning to moisten up and banding returns extends to our SW near the HWY 59 corridor. This is likely virga, but a hint of things to come.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Thank you Srain. I just had a text and some messages about the coast only seeing rain and sleet. I watched KHOU this morning with them reporting snow here, but was not sure if something had changed since I watched the news at 5:30 and missed the 6:00-6:30 broadcast. I appreciate it.
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
we had that band of stuff right over us and nothing!! come on snow!!
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PaulEInHouston
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Morning. Not a big fan of WUnder here. I like a program called WeatherScope. It's developed by Univ of Oklahoma. I also have a product on my website called GRLevel3...it pulls additional data from an independent source/feed and I've configured it for winter precip mode if you're interested.radiogirltx wrote:Calhoun County ISD (port lavaca, seadrift,port oconnor) just announced they will dismiss at 1230 today, and no school tomorrow.
Now, onto a quick question. What is your fav radar when watching winter weather unfold? I normally use the wundermap on wunderground, but is that my best bet when watching meso snow bands?
I didn't catch khou this morning but I caught fox 7:40 and said just a cold rain for the coast witch I don't buy for a secondrnmm wrote:Thank you Srain. I just had a text and some messages about the coast only seeing rain and sleet. I watched KHOU this morning with them reporting snow here, but was not sure if something had changed since I watched the news at 5:30 and missed the 6:00-6:30 broadcast. I appreciate it.
Atmosphere is moistening up...be patient, it's gonna happen. What is on radar right now is mostly virga ... (Evaporates before it hits the ground)hlewis wrote:we had that band of stuff right over us and nothing!! come on snow!!
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
clute28 wrote:I didn't catch khou this morning but I caught fox 7:40 and said just a cold rain for the coast witch I don't buy for a secondrnmm wrote:Thank you Srain. I just had a text and some messages about the coast only seeing rain and sleet. I watched KHOU this morning with them reporting snow here, but was not sure if something had changed since I watched the news at 5:30 and missed the 6:00-6:30 broadcast. I appreciate it.
One thing to keep in mind when a "cold rain" is used in terminology is that if the temperature is at or below freezing .... it's then called Freezing Rain. If it's 33 or 34 degrees it is then a cold rain. Now with all the cold we have had and surface temps (i.e. the ground, streets, sidewalks) already primed for icing .... it wouldn't take much for rain to freeze.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Radar trends suggest as the Upper Low pivots along the base of the trough, the Polar and Sub tropical jets are pivoting westward as well. Echos should begin to lift N as the day wears on and the offshore activity will also progress N with deeper moisture riding over the very cold air...
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radiogirltx
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PaulEInHouston wrote:Morning. Not a big fan of WUnder here. I like a program called WeatherScope. It's developed by Univ of Oklahoma. I also have a product on my website called GRLevel3...it pulls additional data from an independent source/feed and I've configured it for winter precip mode if you're interested.radiogirltx wrote:Calhoun County ISD (port lavaca, seadrift,port oconnor) just announced they will dismiss at 1230 today, and no school tomorrow.
Now, onto a quick question. What is your fav radar when watching winter weather unfold? I normally use the wundermap on wunderground, but is that my best bet when watching meso snow bands?
If you dont mind sharing the link, id love to check it out. Or PM me if you prefer.