February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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updraft
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
djjordan wrote:Anyone on here ever experience Thundersnow or Sleet?? It's quite an experience .... hope it comes to fruitation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I was in the Metroplex for the Leon Lett T-day game, and there was thunder with the sleet.

I was delivering papers, on foot, not on bike, in a snowstorm (it changed to rain not too long after, not uncommon on Long Island, where 40-something water is all around) when there was a pink flash followed almost instantly by a boom, scared me rather severely.

Back in the day, when real pre-teens delivered the Sunday paper, all heavy and full of supplements, on foot in the snow...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

.... and uphill .... both ways :lol:
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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srainhoutx
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
128 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP HAS
DECREASED WITH MAIN EFFECTS BEING ICING ON BRIDGES. SOME SNOW STILL
BEING REPORTED IN HARLINGEN...WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP INCREASES AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS FROM FAVORABLE JET STREAK LOCATION AND
INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINE. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL BE ROUGHLY EAST OF US 281...ESPECIALLY AROUND BKS. FINAL PRECIP
TYPE AMOUNTS SHOULD BREAK DOWN IN BANDS AS FOLLOWS. AREAS WEST OF
US 281 WILL BE ALL SNOW...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. FROM US 281 TO US
77...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET WITH INCREASE OF MID LEVEL
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING. ACCUMULATION OF 1/10 TO 2/10 INCH POSSIBLE ON
EXPOSED AREAS. FROM US 77 EAST TO THE COAST...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. EQUIVALENT LIQUID PRECIPITATION
COULD REACH 1/4 INCH FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO SIGNIFICANT ICING
COULD OCCUR IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR MAINLY THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MORNING...DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE AS THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL TROUGH DEPART TO
THE EAST. SOME RESIDUAL MIXED BAG PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST AND FLURRIES FURTHER WEST. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 40S. BUT CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE 20S...SO HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ONE MORE NIGHT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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cristina99
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Andrew wrote:Let's keep the closures here:

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=569

Sorry - I did post it there. Just covering both places.
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cristina99 wrote:
Andrew wrote:Let's keep the closures here:

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=569

Sorry - I did post it there. Just covering both places.

No problem just keeps the information better organized.
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tgal
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Andrew wrote:Let's keep the closures here:

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=569
Sorry Andrew
PaulEInHouston
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Home from work...Sleeting here and sticking on roof, patio furniture, etc.
Baseballdude2915
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^ I skimmed that discussion and saw TINY accumulations. Then I then looked up to see it was Brownsville. Sigh of relief.
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Is the 18Z Nam looking wetter for SE Texas?
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wxman57
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PLO from I-45 / Beltway 8 near Fuqua exit:

Had about 5-10 min of graupel 30 min ago (partly melted snowflakes). Could see it on HGX radar. Nothing since then. Cloud bases still quite high. No sign of lowering bases yet. Afternoon commute looking OK so far.

RUC/NAM/GFS all indicate quite limited moisture tonight. Given current observations, I'd still lean with the lower end of precip estimates (inch or so of snow). Perhaps we can get a band of heavier precip ahead of the upper low to kick up the accumulations. I did see a heavy thunderstorm with sleet and temps in the teens back in the late 1970s in Ft. Worth. Went out in the morning to make a snowball of the several inches of "snow" and it was hard as a rock.
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updraft
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Looks like temps across the area have risen slightly to just above freezing - 33's, 34's and some 35's - but along the coast, the temps still at freezing = Freeport, 'Gorda, and Galveston all at 32.
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
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jasons2k
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Re: Thundersnow

I was in Birmingham, AL in The Superstorm of 1993. We had thundersnow all night with that. The lightning made it look like daylight reflecting off the snow and the thunder sound was very long and drawn-out. Then you would hear tree branches, etc., start creaking and falling. It was neat and spooky all at once.

The fun lasted for about 18 hours. Then we got to live without power and heat for a week & cable and phone for two weeks.
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tireman4
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wxman57 wrote:PLO from I-45 / Beltway 8 near Fuqua exit:

Had about 5-10 min of graupel 30 min ago (partly melted snowflakes). Could see it on HGX radar. Nothing since then. Cloud bases still quite high. No sign of lowering bases yet. Afternoon commute looking OK so far.

RUC/NAM/GFS all indicate quite limited moisture tonight. Given current observations, I'd still lean with the lower end of precip estimates (inch or so of snow). Perhaps we can get a band of heavier precip ahead of the upper low to kick up the accumulations. I did see a heavy thunderstorm with sleet and temps in the teens back in the late 1970s in Ft. Worth. Went out in the morning to make a snowball of the several inches of "snow" and it was hard as a rock.

For those newbies...I think he means PLO...Parking Lot Observation....
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Showers on the east end of Galveston.
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wxman57
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updraft wrote:Looks like temps across the area have risen slightly to just above freezing - 33's, 34's and some 35's - but along the coast, the temps still at freezing = Freeport, 'Gorda, and Galveston all at 32.
That's still colder than before most snow events that I've witnessed down south since the early 1960s. Problem is, more cold generally = less available moisture.
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Andrew wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Canadian sort of looks like the 15Z SREF means, .25 line just North of Houston, but close enough we should pull down close to 2 inches, if correct.

Did you check out your NAM? You are loosing support. :lol:

Posted happy images off that on the other weather forum, that automatically reduces image size to fit the threads.

Send me the link I will post them here.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Thu Feb 03, 2011 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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unome
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pretty shot

Image
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Paul
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ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....
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Paul wrote:ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....

This will help:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html
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Cuda17
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Paul wrote:ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....
And it is moving EAST!!
-jeff
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wxman57
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18Z NAM has only 0.13" precip for us overnight. That's in the 1-2 inch range if it's snow. Some of that will be sleet, though.
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