February Ends Warm and Dry

[Badfish]

Really? I mean why do we even need soundings for Houston, maybe if we were the 3rd largest US city instead of the 4th, we could get one.........

Do you think this time they will do soundings for HGX? I mean that totally hampered the forecast last time.

There is a portable sounding unit kept at Texas A&M. They did one extra sounding up there, and it showed the whole airmass well below freezing (that's why they got snow in College Station). But there will be no soundings in or near Houston unless there is someone to drive to A&M and pick up the sounding unit then transport it to Houston. Then they'd have to have someone to operate it. So don't expect any soundings near us in the near future.

[texaskaz]

Please forgive me if this was answered in the previous week's long thread...I may have missed it. But what model(s) called the last system the best? Thank you.

[Andrew]

GFS:

[sleetstorm]

I am not done with Winter. I still want to see how much more Winter weather storms that SE Texas will get before all is said and done for Winter 2010-2011. The first day of Spring this year is the 20th of March in case any of you did not know. I am not going to be done with Winter until sometime next month.

[Andrew]

I am not done with Winter. I still want to see how much more Winter weather storms that SE Texas will get before all is said and done for Winter 2010-2011. The first day of Spring this year is the 20th of March in case any of you did not know. I am not going to be done with Winter until sometime next month.

I would be perfectly fine with temps getting back into the 90's tomm. I mean I enjoy extreme weather but I enjoy summer so much more. One day Key West here I come.

[helloitsb]

Any chance this system can dive East like the rest of our freakin systems did this year? Didn't think I would say it but I'm ready to start mowing and I wouldn't mind being able to fish and just go outside, I think I'm about done with winter also

today was a nice warm up and just a nice day over all but would like it warmer of course

[wxman666]

GFS:

Andrew, is that showing rain or frozen stuff?

[Andrew]

GFS:

Andrew, is that showing rain or frozen stuff?

Pretty close but I don't think we would have any problems. CMC slows down the cold air when it gets into Texas and that doesn't look like a realistic outcome to me. Euro shows some problems but still too close to call. Good thing though is once we are done with next week the pattern looks a lot better for a warm up (hopefully for the rest of the season)

[wxman666]

GFS:

Andrew, is that showing rain or frozen stuff?

Pretty close but I don't think we would have any problems. CMC slows down the cold air when it gets into Texas and that doesn't look like a realistic outcome to me. Euro shows some problems but still too close to call. Good thing though is once we are done with next week the pattern looks a lot better for a warm up (hopefully for the rest of the season)

I wouldn't have minded another winter storm. I suppose though, my attention will soon be shifting to severe wx season...my favorite weather phenomenon of them all!

[srainhoutx]

HGX thinking some chances of storms tonight with a bit of a 'hint' of wrap around moisture. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding mid week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AT 09Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS PREVAILED AND WERE BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. PW VALUES RISE TO 0.80 INCHES BY 00Z.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. EXPANDED POPS A
BIT FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED TO LOW END CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME
EAST THIS EVENING. THE RECENT COLD SPELL HAS LOWERED WATER TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 40S. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE MID
50S THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING SO HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS. MODELS ALSO
HINT AT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SNOW BUT NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY MOISTURE ALOFT. WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH BUT NOT
MENTION PRECIP.

SHOULD BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 50S. WARMER ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE
COAST BY 18Z. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND FALL
THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HINTING THAT SURFACE TEMPS COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY
LINE. COLDER TEMPS AGAIN LIKELY ON THUR/FRI BUT AT LEAST SKIES
WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. CLOUDS RETURN NEXT SUNDAY AND HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-070100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
518 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. A NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE MORNING
AND SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO TRINITY LINE.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SLIGHT AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z's have started with some important dropsonde data from Winter RECON missions. Hopefully all the flip flopping will settle down in the American model world and we will get a bit better picture of what the week will bring...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Feb 6 13:42:09 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061342
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1337Z SUN FEB 06 2011
THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME WITH 31 CANADIAN...13 MEXICAN AND 10
CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL FOR INGEST. THERE WERE 10
DROPSONDE...ANCHORAGE C-130 DATA...REPORTS RECEIVED...5 OF WHICH
WERE INGESTED INTO THE NAM.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
UIL/72797 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 739-701 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
TAE/72214 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 454-430 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
PPG/91765 - 10142
ASY/70414 - LATE FOR NAM.
SGF/72440 - WINDS MISSING ABOVE 500 MB.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
CWD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z MON FEB 7.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[wxman57]

Models are definitely trending away from any significant post-frontal precip here on Wednesday. Precip ends long before temps cool down to near freezing, which is typical. We rarely, if ever, get frozen precip here immediately following frontal passage. We get the frozen precip when a disturbance passes over the already-in-place cold air a day or two later. And It doesn't look like that's going to happen this week. I'm becoming confident that we've seen the last of any significant winter weather here.

Once we get past a couple of cold mornings here on Thu/Fri, all models indicate a changed pattern of much milder weather down south.


Extended range - keep in mind it doesn't show highs/lows, just temps at 6am and 6pm. Add 4-6 degrees for the afternoon high:

[srainhoutx]

As wxman57 stated, the pattern change to warmer weather is in the cards for TX. That said, the warm up across the US may be a bit of a temporary week break before the cold returns to part (Northern Areas) of the CONUS as an Aleutian Ridge builds and cold air returns to AK and Western Canada. There are also suggestions the -AO/-NAO will return and ‘hints’ of a robust Polar Vortex establishing on our side of the globe...we shall see…

[wxman57]

As wxman57 stated, the pattern change to warmer weather is in the cards for TX. That said, the warm up across the US may be a bit of a temporary week break before the cold returns to part (Northern Areas) of the CONUS as an Aleutian Ridge builds and cold air returns to AK and Western Canada. There are also suggestions the -AO/-NAO will return and ‘hints’ of a robust Polar Vortex establishing on our side of the globe...we shall see…

Those 8-10 day charts are music to my ears! Winter is OVER! Well, at least the worst of winter is over. We'll still see a few more freezes, but this week's freezes could well be the last. Maybe we can see our first 80 degree day before the end of February...

[srainhoutx]

As wxman57 stated, the pattern change to warmer weather is in the cards for TX. That said, the warm up across the US may be a bit of a temporary week break before the cold returns to part (Northern Areas) of the CONUS as an Aleutian Ridge builds and cold air returns to AK and Western Canada. There are also suggestions the -AO/-NAO will return and ‘hints’ of a robust Polar Vortex establishing on our side of the globe...we shall see…

Those 8-10 day charts are music to my ears! Winter is OVER! Well, at least the worst of winter is over. We'll still see a few more freezes, but this week's freezes could well be the last. Maybe we can see our first 80 degree day before the end of February...

Mine too. My only concern is this pattern has been anything but ordinary and any shift of the ridge a bit E changes everything, yet again. Thankfully, I think the worst is over also, I HOPE...

[redneckweather]

I don't think I have ever seen this board wanting winter to be through with down here. I'm a fan of bitter cold weather myself but like everyone else, bring on the mild temps and sunshine! That just goes to show you that we have had a REAL winter down here goig back to the first week or so of January. That was a great stretch of cold weather but it's time for it to get the hell out of here.

We are still leaving on Tuesday even if it is just drizzle and rain and not frozen precip.

[redneckweather]

It looks like I might get into a some wintry mix where I will be in Leakey perhaps? The NWS show a very raw day on Wednesday with high's barely getting above freezing with moisture in place. Interesting.

[srainhoutx]

All the dropsondes are in the 12Z GFS. We'll see what it spits out...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Feb 6 14:55:17 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061455
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1450Z SUN FEB 06 2011
THE 12Z NAM COMPLETED ON TIME. THE GFS STARTED ON TIME
WITH 32 CANADIAN...13 MEXICAN AND 11 CARIBBEAN STATIONS
AVBL FOR INGEST. THERE WERE 10 DROPSONDE...ANCHORAGE C-130
DATA...REPORTS RECEIVED. FIVE WERE INGESTED INTO THE NAM. ALL
WERE INGESTED INTO THE GFS.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
UIL/72797 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 739-701 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
TAE/72214 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 454-430 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
PPG/91765 - 10142
ASY/70414 - NOT AVBL FOR NAM/GFS.
SGF/72440 - WINDS MISSING ABOVE 500 MB.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
CWD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z MON FEB 7.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Portastorm]

It looks like I might get into a some wintry mix where I will be in Leakey perhaps? The NWS show a very raw day on Wednesday with high's barely getting above freezing with moisture in place. Interesting.

Based on the current forecast, you would be encountering some nasty winter conditions as you approach the Hill Country.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests some light precip later in the day, today and overnight. That model also suggests some light wintry precip for N TX and points N and E as well.