April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[unome]

http://www.khou.com/news/Firefighters-b ... hood-.html

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=8093246

[texoz]

Very large area under flash flood warning now in Ark/Ok/Mizzou. Not sure if I've seen one that large before.

http://www.weather.gov/

Updated to add that as of 6:15pm there are approx a dozen reports of tornadoes from Texas to Missouri. It's going to be a long afternoon and night for a lot of people.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's hope for rain. I don't see any storms developing west of here. Of course that can all change.

[Mrs.Frosty]

Well, well , well...i didn't think we would get any rain but thunderstorms and lots of wind woke us up around 2:30am and it's still raining. Thunderstorm was quite heavy and LOUD !
What a nice surprise.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like we had a few drops overnight. I can see drop marks in the dust on the patio furniture. It's almost time for a new thread for May. Anyone feel lucky? I sure couldn't bring any for April. Sigh...

[srainhoutx]

I'll post the morning E-mail from Jeff in the April thread since it has some damage reports up near Lake Livingston:

Most active weather this area has seen in months last night with numerous reports of hail over our northern and northeastern counties.

Fire Weather Watch issued for all of the region on Wednesday.

A couple of large supercells hammered our northern areas overnight on the tail end of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak over NE TX and AR. Large supercells developed near Waco and turned right SE into the mean low level flow across the Crockett and Livingston areas producing significant damaging hail and possible tornadoes (see storm reports below). Across the rest of the area the cap held firm with no activity noted. Old thunderstorm complex is now over SW LA moving ESE with a lagging meso boundary extending from near College Station to Lake Charles. This boundary will lift back northward today and combine with a southward moving cold front and very strong surface heating to potentially produce another rough of severe weather over N and NE TX. Main question is how far SW these storms can build into the strong capping over the region. Early indications is that surface heating will be a little more intense today with highs peaking in the low to mid 90’s and this may be enough to break the cap by late afternoon along the I-35 corridor. Forecasted instability is on the extreme side, so once again if storms do develop they will likely go quickly severe. Will favor areas north of HWY 105 and west of Hwy 36 for the best chances of storms. Some indication in the 4km WRF of some activity trying to get going around and SW of Victoria late this afternoon which seems a bit strange given the capping inversion in place…but the model may be keying in on enough heating to break to cap even that far S and W. Still feel coverage will be on the isolated side, but what does go will have a very large hail threat.

Cold front moves across the area early Wednesday with a very dry air mass pushing southward. Dewpoints falling into the 30’s and highs in the 80’s will produce afternoon RH in the 25% range or lower. Gusty NW winds, dry fuels, and dry low level air mass all point to a critical fire weather day. Even with a moist low level air mass, large fires continue to develop over the area (25 acres yesterday afternoon in Conroe threatened 12 homes). Good news is that some of the most critical fire threat areas in our north and northeast counties did get 1-2 inches of rain last night and this may help to lessen the “forest fire” threat in that region, but the rest of the area remains at a very high risk and Wednesday will be particularly bad day for wildfires.

After this afternoon/Wed AM no additional rainfall is forecast until may be late this weekend of early next week. GFS shows a weak front stalling across the area early next week producing some rainfall, but given the current drought will favor the drier solutions.

Overnight Storm Reports:

Grapeland, Houston Co: 1.0 inch diameter hail

1E Grapeland, Houston CO: Nickel to golfball size hail

Latexo, Houston Co: 1.0 inch diameter hail

Riverside, Walker Co: Numerous trees downed from damaging winds

3 NE Onalaska, Polk Co: Possible tornado at Walkers Waterfront on Lake Livingston.

Livingston, Polk Co: Funnel cloud NNW of Livingston on FM 350

2 SE Livingston, Polk Co: Marble size hail on SH 146

8NE Crockett, Houston Co: trees down across Hwy 21

[wxman57]

A lot of nothing in my neighborhood. Not a drop of rain. I may need to take some drastic actions after work today (wash my car).

[hriverajr]

You think you have it bad... things are real serious here. From national weather service "THE
DRIEST AT DEL RIO SINCE 1906 WITH 0.32 INCHES" This from October 1st till now... Almost seven months and only .32 in rain... Geesh..

[srainhoutx]

Last nights rainfall for those that were lucky/drought message from HGX:

.DROUGHT...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FELL OVER PARTS OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST TOTAL REPORTED WAS IN CLEVELAND WITH 2.86 INCHES.
OTHER TOTALS INCLUDE CROCKETT WITH 1.42...12 NE HUNTSVILLE WITH
1.29 AND LIVINGSTON 1.60 INCHES. WILLIS RECEIVED 0.74 INCHES AND
CONROE RECEIVED 0.29 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING.

HOUSTON IAH HAS GONE 91 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT RECEIVING A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR MORE ON A CALENDAR DAY. THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITHOUT RECEIVING A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING A CALENDAR DAY
IS 93 AND WAS SET IN NOV/DEC 2008 AND JAN/FEB 2009. THE LAST TIME
HOUSTON RECEIVED MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WAS BACK ON JANUARY
24TH.

[jasons2k]

My vehicles had some water beaded-up on them this morning, so something fell. Whatever it was, it was very light as the street & sidewalks were bone-dry. I'll check the rain gauge when I get home but I'm not expecting anything but dust and cobwebs.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS looks encouraging for Sunday/Moday if anyone wants to try their luck with a new May thread.

[jasons2k]

There was a wildfire last weekend behind my neighborhood (Imperial Oaks) - pretty crazy stuff:

http://www.woodlandsonline.com/npps/sto ... page=41349

[jasons2k]

Is it me or is it cooler for the Houston area than forecast? 90's north of here.

[srainhoutx]

It's cooler today with all the cloud cover I think, Jason. Currently 78F here in NW Harris County. Just walked to the mailbox and even felt a few sprinkles actually. Meanwhile, College Station is setting at 91F under mostly clear skies and very close to that PDS Tornado Watch.

[jasons2k]

WOW, awfully close!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0592.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262001Z - 262130Z

MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX AND THE TX
HILL COUNTRY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD
IN VICINITY OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY DRYLINE. THE EXACT
COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG EML...BUT AT LEAST
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE REGION.
ALONG THESE LINES...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 12Z ECMWF AND VARIOUS 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP...IMPLY THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
WHERE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG INSTABILITY /3000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COUPLED WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES.

[srainhoutx]

^
TCU development near the Hill Country along I-35 looks interesting...

[jasons2k]

^
TCU development near the Hill Country along I-35 looks interesting...

Yes, it does. The issue today is that the convection is moving more to the NE/NNE. It appears we'd need a right-turner to head in this direction, and we saw what that did to Liberty/Livingston last night. I'd almost take it if it meant we'd get some rain out of it though...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

A bit closer to home...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
ROBERTSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN AND WAS ALSO MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BUFFALO AROUND 415 PM
CENTERVILLE AROUND 420 PM

THIS WILL IMPACT I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 180.

[jasons2k]

Mean looking hook-echo near Ennis. Not too different than the model output, crazy.