May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the 12Z NAM. About 0.15" Mon/Tue. Interestingly, it forecasts more rain today than Mon/Tue. Radar does indicate showers all around.

[srainhoutx]

I am cautiously optimistic...as well as HGX…

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE CAP/VERY WARM MID LEVELS...RADAR CONTINUING TO PICK UP
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PERHAPS THIS IS AN INDI-
CATION OF THINGS TO COME?

AT ANY RATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE FCST AS MODELS KEEP US
A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN WE HAVE BEEN OF LATE. THE MAIN FCST ELEMENT
LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW AND
ITS INTERACTIONS WITH S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW A-
LOFT. TIMING WILL BE A CONCERN (ALONG WITH THE PROGGED CAP) BUT SO
FAR THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD START AOA LATE SUN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ONE DISTURBANCE AND THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE MON WITH THE FRONT ITSELF.
NOT RUNNING WITH THESE LATEST (AND VERY GAUDY) MAV/MEX POP NUMBERS
GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE...BUT DO FEEL THAT THIS COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINS. BUT
THESE INCREASED POPS MAY COME WITH STRINGS ATTACHED. WHILE THE SPC
DY2 OUTLOOKS INDICATE THAT THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE
WX WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
AND LIFT STRONGER...ANY STORMS THAT BREAK THIS CAP DOWN HERE COULD
BE STRONG. STAY TUNED.

[TexasBreeze]

It's thundering at my house from a real elevated thunder cloud, but no sign of rainfall yet by Hooks airport.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch issued until 2:00 AM for NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...

[srainhoutx]

Nice to see rain on the radar this morning across N TX. It appears the frontal boundary may have stalled across that region. HGX expects the front to near our area later today. We will see...



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-021230-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
722 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING CENTRAL TEXAS COLD FRONT...WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND A VICINITY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM...WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DOWN BURST WINDS THAT COULD EXCEED
60 MPH IN GUST. THE SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THAT OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ALIVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF 35 TO 45
MPH LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER UPPER WESTERLY WINDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND ANY PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAY ALL ADD UP TO
PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAMAGING
DOWN BURST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
BEING THE SECONDARY THREAT.

DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[jasons2k]

I sure hope so. On satellite images, the front appears to be heading south at a good clip. If this can maintain throughout the day, maybe we'll be in a better period (time-wise) to capitalize on our daytime heating.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF suggests some showers/storms along and ahead of the front this evening across areas N and W of downtown. Rain chances look to increase tomorrow as the frontal boundary meanders across the area. There are again hints of an upper disturbance riding up the coast along the slow moving front that increases the rain chances late Monday into Tuesday. We’ll need to watch to see if the SPC expands the Slight Risk later to closer to our area. Our neighbors in Central TX may have a better shot at severe weather chances this afternoon. Fingers crossed that we finally see some rain fall from those clouds and a less capped environment.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS
OF THE LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS...

...CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS...
WITH TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER SRN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU
THE PERIOD...STRONG SWLY MID/UPR JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SEWD ACROSS
NCENTRAL TX.

THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER IS PRIMED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...ATOP WHICH RESIDES
A PRONOUNCED EML WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. THUS FAR THE
MOST ACTIVE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERE...HAVE BEEN ELEVATED TO THE N
OF FRONTAL ZONE.

AS WARM SECTOR TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S IN E TX TO MS RIVER...CINH
WILL DISSIPATE...LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS
SRN FRINGE OF 50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW TOPS 35-40 KT SSWLY
CONFLUENT LLJ. STORM MODE WILL RANGE FROM SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
TO COMPLEX ROTATING STRUCTURES/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGEST
LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FROM NE TX AND THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO NEAR
MEMPHIS...WHERE A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREATS.

FARTHER SW WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER AND CAP A LITTLE
STRONGER...SCTD SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER IN THE AFTN JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER ERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
OVER E CNTRL TX. WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN MUCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A
MORE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..HALES/COHEN.. 05/01/2011

[srainhoutx]

Frontal boundary approaching Bryan/College Station. FYI: CLL had a high of 94F late hour and has dropped to 93F this hour.

[weatherguy425]

Dang! 52 in Ft. Worth and 93 in College Station!

[srainhoutx]

Cotulla=99F Junction=55F. I see a Special Weather Statement out of San Angelo suggesting possible freezing temps as well. If that verifies, it would be the latest freeze since the 40's and even the early 1900's at some locales if I recall correctly.

[svrwx0503]

Visible satellite shows some cumulus clouds across our northern counties trying there best to break through the cap with a developing cu field further north ahead of the front. Mesoanalysis shows some decent moisture convergence along the front so with a few more hours of heating, we will likely see a few showers and storms start to develop across central Texas or possibly across our northern counties.

[jasons2k]

This is one powerful front gang. I just think we're going to get some rain out of this. Something has to give with all this heat and gulf moisture being pumped northward and then overrunning.

[wxman57]

There's a 40-50 degree temperature drop across the front. From the upper 40s to 50 degrees behind it to the lower 90s ahead of it.

[srainhoutx]

Cotulla at 104F while Gainesville is 45F

[texoz]

No rain yet in Austin area. Rain chances in Austin were downgraded from 60 to 40% for tonight. Not a good trend.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it's been disappointing that nothing got going in the Austin-San Antonio areas. The HRRR was pretty optimistic. The 23Z run shows a band of showers/storms along the front as it approaches and passes N/NE Houston Metro. Radar not nearly as encouraging attm. The dreaded cap keeps clamping down for now.

[jasons2k]

Front through Huntsville, now in NW Montgomery county, just touched the tip of far NW Harris County.

[srainhoutx]

Will it ever rain again SE TX?

[Andrew]

^^

The Kimble County fire is getting rained on, and rain is falling in the watershed of the Upper Colorado River. Glass one eight full, silver lining, always look on the bright side of life...

And Bin Laden is no longer alive so glass is full.