May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances not looking good for our area at all. The Texas Drought Monitor says it all...

[wxman57]

Rain chances look very slim for the rest of May, and probably through June and most of July.

[unome]

check out global images from http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/RealTime.php

Drought Risk http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/DailyImage.php ... _Daily.png|

Monthly Temperature http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/DailyImage.php ... emperature

TX is baking

[Ptarmigan]

Well developed altocumulus passed about an hour ago when I was in the yard, it was hot and humid, and upper levels must have been ripe, but I suppose the low/midlevel death cap keep a lid on things.

If it was not for that Cockroach Cap, we would see rain and thunderstorms right now. The question is how do we get rid of the Cockroach Cap for good? We need ideas!

[ticka1]

Tropical Wave
Tropical Depression
Tropical Storm
Hurricane....

There are my suggestions for breaking the cockroach ridge and the drought here in SE Texas!

[unome]

well the system that totally ignored us is still wreaking havoc across the US http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... radar.html

[srainhoutx]

Thoughts are with those in Joplin, MO this morning. Some of us that post on Americanwx are very concerned for longtime member JoMo who was posting as the tornado dropped and hasn't been heard from since.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv3COQ6gv-8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuU-nFuI ... r_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuU-nFuI ... r_embedded

E-mail from Jeff this morning:

Little day to day change as the drought conditions will worsen this week across the area.

Did get some decent rains Friday night over our parched northern counties (2-4 inches) in some locations from north of College Station to near Huntsville), but ever present capping southward prevented any rainfall over much rest of the region. Very strong capping has returned to the area with 700mb temperatures of 13C and 850mb of 22C. Upper level ridge is building northward out of northern MX helping to increase the thickness (heights) and this will boost afternoon temperatures a few degrees likely into the mid 90’s.

Strong SE flow continues as it has for the last several months. In fact low level jet overhead this morning of 40kts looks to mix to the surface some this afternoon west of I-45 under partly cloudy skies…so a windy advisory has been issued. Expect surface winds of 20-30mph this afternoon. Long fetch southerly flow has forced long period swells over the western Gulf of Mexico and these large waves are causing above average tides along the coast and dangerous rip currents around Matagorda Bay southward to near Corpus Christi. South winds are also bringing in plumes of smoke/haze from fires burning in southern MX. Satellite does not show as thick of plumes as last Friday, but still a hazy tint to the air for the next several days.

Weak front looks to get close to the area on Thursday and this will be our next hope for rainfall…although hope instead of chance looks most appropriate. GFS model is much drier than the NAM and will side with the GFS for now given our drought and failure of recent events to produce much if any rainfall. Should the GFS trend toward the NAM, rain chances would need to be raised…but I do not see much weakening of the capping that has been in place for months. Weak front will finally weaken the pressure gradient and allow the surface winds to relax for at least a couple of days before strong south winds return Friday into next weekend.

Long Range:
Any hope for rain appears to be squashed as strong upper level ridging will build northward out of MX with heights over TX rising to near 580DM over the upcoming weekend and through the first week of June. Strong subsidence will only intensify the already strong capping in place and increasing heights will push afternoon highs into the mid to upper 90’s. Would not be surprised to see a few locations approach 100 the first week of June given the parched grounds.

Drought:
A few locations saw good rains on Friday evening…to make a dent in the drought, but far from ending it. Most locations south of HWY 105 did not see any rainfall and the drought conditions continue to worsen. For the first time ever in the history of the City of Houston rainfall has been less than 1.0 inch for the past 3 months (Feb, Mar, Apr)…and May could end up in the same boat. Hobby Airport has had measurable rainfall only 1 time in the last 69 days and only .19 of an inch since March 15th.

Exceptional drought conditions continue to expand across the region mainly south of I-10 where rainfall has been virtually little to none in the past 3 months.

[sleetstorm]

How would a tropical wave, tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane be able to eradicate the cap over SE Texas, by moistening up the atmosphere where it is the most arid after dumping its cargo on the very parched land?

[sleetstorm]

How would a tropical wave, tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane be able to eradicate the cap over SE Texas, by moistening up the atmosphere where it is the most arid after dumping its cargo on the very parched land?

850 to 700 mb from a direction other than Southwesterly generally doesn't cause a strong cap...

Oh, okay. But SE Texas has had southeasterly, southerly, and southsoutheasterly winds off and on since the start of this year's spring though. I am thinking that persistence is one of the main factors in getting the atmosphere sufficiently moistened in all of the levels of the troposphere so that showers and thunderstorms (strong and severe) will not have such a difficult time developing or be averted from developing.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the dry line will be the focus today for northern areas to see a chance of storms with a breakable cap. Look out for those high temps expected ahead of the boundary. Some old records may be in jeopardy. Oh, and a pattern change may well be ahead next week. But that discussion will be in the June thread that Ed has.

[srainhoutx]

Small shower in Burleson County this morning. Perhaps a bit more activity across that area later today...

[jasons2k]

Depressing:

About 1.22 inches of rain fell at DFW Airport on Tuesday, bringing the total for the month to close to eight inches, which is almost twice as much as the normal May rainfall.

Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/24 ... z1NNGZ8oEm

[srainhoutx]

Depressing:

About 1.22 inches of rain fell at DFW Airport on Tuesday, bringing the total for the month to close to eight inches, which is almost twice as much as the normal May rainfall.

Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/24 ... z1NNGZ8oEm

Yeah, a case for the haves and the have nots. We just happen to be the have nots in Metro Houston and points S. The 12ZWRF is not impressed with our chances today either.

[wxman57]

Looks like a 15% chance of significant hail on that graphic, Ed, but I'd say the glass is closer to 1/100th full.

[svrwx0503]

700mb temps remain above 10C across much of the region (still enough of a cap aloft) and without any significant forcing along the front/dry line up to our north, unfortunately I would not expect much if any development this evening.

[svrwx0503]

It looks like some activity is starting to fire up along a line of TC from just northeast of Austin across our northern counties. Radar starting to pick up some returns in Bastrop and Grimes counties. Be advised that some of these storms could go severe with large hail being the main threat this evening as the atmosphere is quite unstable.

[svrwx0503]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
814 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13
MILES WEST OF HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO NEW WAVERLY AND HUNTSVILLE.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[svrwx0503]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 842 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14
MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GIDDINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SOMERVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...BRENHAM AND SNOOK.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[tireman4]

We might and I stress we might get some rain...out of this cell...if it can hold together...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[unome]

incredible lightning off to our WNW - hope we don't get hail, but would love the rain