June Ends - Hottest on Record

[wxman57]

Forecasting rain 7-8 days out in a drought is not as likely to verify. They're being safe for now and not getting too excited yet.

[Katdaddy]

Very true WXman57. At least there is a signal in the models of possible moisture next week.

[Ptarmigan]

Top 10 Driest October to May Rainfall
1.) 2010-2011 14.17
2.) 1924-1925 15.20
3.) 1955-1956 16.60
4.) 1908-1909 16.74
5.) 1950-1951 17.36
6.) 1916-1917 17.90
7.) 1917-1918 17.92
8.) 1901-1902 18.10
9.) 1939-1940 18.67
10.) 1962-1963 19.26

This year has been dry, but in terms of PDSI, it is not the lowest. In fact, we had lower PDSI in 2005-2006.

Top 10 Lowest PDSI
1.) 1917-1918 -4.86
2.) 1924-1925 -3.85
3.) 1955-1956 -3.68
4.) 1999-2000 -3.57
5.) 1954-1955 -3.37
6.) 1916-1917 -3.30
7.) 1950-1951 -2.98
8.) 2005-2006 -2.93
9.) 1951-1952 -2.90
10.) 1915-1916 -2.87

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

This could be one of the worst drought.
http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011 ... -a-bullet/

[srainhoutx]

Apparently the HPC believes the trough/frontal boundary could be a focal point for rain next week. There is a split in the between the models regarding just how strong/deep that trough will be as well as how fast it will move. Then add to the mix the deep tropical moisture to our S and you can see the cautious nature of the various forecasts.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Drought but some hope‏


Incredible drought conditions continue across the entire region with several cities now starting mandatory and voluntary water restrictions effective today.

Extreme wildfire danger remains in place today through the weekend along with record high temperatures this weekend.

However hope appears on the horizon as the tropics look to come to live over the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Discussion:

It is brutal with the heat and dryness and vegetation, even large trees, are starting to suffer with the lack of rainfall. Upper level ridging over MX will build over TX over the next 24 hours with surface temperatures increasing into the low 100’s during the afternoon hours likely breaking records. Strong winds have returned to the region resulting in warm overnight lows and afternoon dewpoints south of I-10 have not been mixing out much forcing heat index values toward 104-107 or just shy of heat advisory criteria. North of I-10 mixing as allowing afternoon RH to fall to near 35% supporting extreme fire weather concerns with the gusty southerly winds.

Expect very warm conditions over the weekend with highs into the 100’s and lows near 80 with no rainfall. Starting Monday the stubborn upper ridge shifts far to the northeast of the area as a trough plowing across the north plains. The tail end of this trough will break off and create a shear axis or weakness across the state of TX lowering mid level heights and reducing the capping. At the same time the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea will surge NW across the Gulf of Mexico toward this weakness in the height field. PWS of 2.0-2.4 inches will move NW from the Yucatan and toward the TX coast by Tuesday.

Air mass becomes very tropical by late Tuesday as PWS start to exceed the magic 2.0 inch range. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on this surge of deep moisture Tuesday afternoon as the air mass goes uncapped and trigger temperatures fall to the mid 80’s. Wednesday and Thursday look like the wettest days as PWS peak in the 2.2-2.4 inch range supporting the threat of widespread heavy rainfall. GFS attempts to develop a surface low pressure reflection off the NE MX coast around the middle of the week and moves this feature northward into the shear axis over TX and inland around Matagorda Bay. At this time will keep the tropical wave axis as an open wave and not close off a surface low, but it is possible that some weak tropical development could spin up near the coast toward the middle/end of next week.

At this point given the multiple model runs showing this event feel rain chances will start on Tuesday and really ramp up on Wednesday and Thursday. Will go with 50% for Wednesday and Thursday for now as we must not forget how hard rain has been to come by over the past several months however if models continue to show this event then chances will need to be pushed into the 70-80% range by early next week. Finger are crossed.

Drought/Heat:

BUSH IAH has already recorded 4 100+ degree days this June, typically we record 100+ only 3 times in a whole year.

Crockett has reached 100+ 11 times in June and Huntsville 8

As of today June 2011 is the warmest ever record at IAH, Hobby, and Galveston.

Houston has now endured 4 months without an inch of rainfall…this has never happened before.

Hobby Airport has had 1 day of rainfall (.19 of an inch) out of the last 92 days.

The period from Oct 2010 to June 16, 2011 is that driest period ever recorded at IAH and Hobby shattering the previous records

IAH: 12.84 inches of rainfall (old record 15.05 inches in 1917)

Hobby: 16.07 inches of rainfall (old record 16.97 inches in 1956)

College Station: Second driest behind 1925 (1925: 9.15 in, 2011: 9.79 inches, 1917: 13.52 inches)

Based on the rainfall data above this is likely the most severe short term drought ever experienced in the City of Houston weather history.

It is even more astounding when looking at the period from Feb-June 2011. This period has been incredibly dry.

IAH: 2.02 (2011) previous record 5.48 (1996). 2011 for this period has 11.5% of its rainfall.

Hobby: 1.31 (2011) previous record 4.99 (1963). 2011 for this period has 7.3% of its rainfall

Rainfall Deficits since last October:

Bellville: -21.74

Brenham: -21.01

College Station: -19.80

Columbus: -22.02

Conroe: -22.31

Freeport: -18.78

Hobby: -19.64

IAH: -20.74

Huntsville: -23.71

Katy: -19.08

Matagorda: -18.72

New Caney: -19.37

Tomball: -25.24



65% of the state of TX is now in exceptional drought or the worst category on the US Drought Monitor. With 89% in extreme or exceptional at staggering amount of land area. All SE TX counties except Houston County and Jackson County are classified in exceptional drought with Houston and Jackson in extreme drought.



So far for 2011 the drought has resulted in 1.4 billion dollars in crop and cattle losses across TX

Numerous wildfires continue to develop across the region. The KBDI index now exceeds 700 in 11 SE TX counties on the scale of 0-800 (0=saturated and 800=no moisture). Harris County has a value of 734 and Montgomery County 745. Brazoria County has moved to 747. Values of these magnitudes support explosive fire growth and rapid dying of vegetation including grasses, shrubs, and large trees. All 23 counties in SE TX have burn bans in place with 215 across the state out of 254 counties. Vegetation health is beyond poor in un-irrigated locations and numerous trees including Oaks, Pines, and Palms are dying from lack of rainfall.

Water Restrictions:

The City of Galveston and League City enacted stage 3 drought plans yesterday with now mandatory water restrictions in place. Residents watering outside of the determined days and times will be subject to fines.

Conroe enacted stage 2 drought contingency plans last week, no outside water use is allowed during daylight hours.

Voluntary Water Restrictions:

Sugar Land

Pearland

Huntsville

Friendswood

The Woodlands

La Marque

Hitchcock

Bayou Vista

New Waverly

Riverside

[srainhoutx]

It is becoming a bit more clear that rain chance will be increasing as we head into next week. The Canadian has joined the GFS in suggesting increased rain chances for multiple days beginning in the late Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. What is interesting is those two models are also suggesting a bit of tropical mischief brewing in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. Just perhaps a pattern change is ahead and we will wait and see if the Euro trends with the other more reliable models. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z UKMET and Euro have joined in on opening the door for deep tropical moisture to stream N. Both of those models break down the Upper Ridge and that suggests a pattern change may well be ahead. We will see.

[jasons2k]

Writeup from Eric Berger in the Chronicle:

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/06/th ... re-coming/

[srainhoutx]

HARRIS COUNTY, Texas – Firefighters have called for a mandatory evacuation of at least two streets in the Breckinridge Forest neighborhood near where they're battling a stubborn brush fire.

Precinct 4 deputies alerted residents by driving through the neighborhood with a P.A. system and knocking on doors.

http://www.khou.com/news/local/Firefigh ... 76394.html

[Portastorm]

Official high here today at Camp Mabry (ATT) was 106 degrees!

[rnmm]

I am hoping this rain pans out for all of us. These wildfires are scary and I feel so bad for everyone affected by them. I know my yard could definitely use it as I am sure all of yours can as well. I want to say Thank You to all of you who take the time to keep us updated on the weather and what we may be able to expect.

When can we be more confident of the possibility of rain?

[srainhoutx]

I hope the ‘night crew’ will wake up soon. They may have something to watch, like rain! After a very long dry spell and distant memories of Ice Storms, there does appear in model world that a change is coming. The 18Z GFS paints an interesting picture. The 500mb (upper/mid levels) charts suggest disturbances riding across MX from an EPAC tropical disturbance. That model also suggest a bit of spin (low pressure) at the 850mb level. Rainfall estimates by that model show just how wet we could be talking about…in model world…then throw in a frontal boundary to the N...fingers crossed...

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS and Canadian suggest a wet pattern. Stalled boundaries with deep tropical moisture lurking nearby...hmmm...

[unome]

looking pretty nice

[srainhoutx]

While we are dreaming of increased rainfall chances, winds and tender dry ground fuels are setting the stage for another dangerous day concerning wildfires. Stay safe folks. HGX:

ANOTHER VERY WARM START TO THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY 90
DEGREES AT 10 AM. THE 12Z RAW NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY REACH
102-105 DEGREES TODAY OVER THE NORTH. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT DUE TO
THE WARM START AND LESS CLOUD COVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 104 AND 106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY GROUND FUEL WILL SET STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS YET AGAIN TODAY.

[Portastorm]

We need to back that QPF bullseye about 100 miles west and all will be good!

[srainhoutx]

We need to back that QPF bullseye about 100 miles west and all will be good!

I've heard there are water issues to your NW, Portastorm. Is that true?

[Portastorm]

Indeed there are, sir. Most of you probably know where Llano is ... about 75 miles northwest of Austin. Lovely little town in the Hill Country which gets most of its action from outdoor sports (hunting, fishing), and awesome barbecue (Coopers). The Llano River is the town's only source of water. That river, which usually runs at 158 cubic feet per second, is now running at 3.8 cubic feet per second! Town officials expect the river to run dry in the next few weeks if no rain falls in the area.

Here is a link to an article which ran in the Austin newspaper this past week.

http://www.statesman.com/news/local/dro ... 42491.html

[msp]

well, CLL has now hit 101, 101, and 103 the past three days and they appear to be on track to challenge yesterday's high. disgusting; makes me glad i'm not there for it.

that's really a tragedy regarding llano. a few of us are planning a hill country trip next month, and i'm going to guess that pedernales falls will be dry as ever too.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a change this afternoon regarding what may occur next week. The past couple of days the models have been converging on a solution that suggest the Upper Ridge will break down and be a bit slower to become re established across TX. This has been the main fly in the ointment and why there has been some doubt about a prolonged chance of rain. It does appear that deep tropical moisture will begin surging into the Gulf during the day on Monday and by late Tuesday, showers/storms may begin to increase. Wednesday/Thursday look like a decent chance for everyone to at least have a shot at some scattered rains. Activity may start to diminish as we head into next week, but if the GFS is more correct in the longer range, those rain chances may continue a bit longer. Regarding the disturbance in the Caribbean/Western Gulf. Little or no development appears to be the most sensible solution at this time. That said, that disturbance, along with the EPAC system and a boundary to our N should enhance chances for some badly needed rain.