Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[Bluefalcon]

Looks like the WP-3D Orion "Kermit" just penetrated the large LLC around 25.8N and 90.7W. He's on his outbound leg to the SW. Do the Orion missions send vortex messages?

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding W winds (wind shift) near 26N/91W

What does that mean?

We likely have a broad closed circulation forming. And it is W of where wxman57 and others mentioned earlier this morning when we saw some signs of a low developing around 26N/90W. We have a long way to go before we'll know the real outcome of this storm, IMO.

[djmike]

RECON is finding W winds (wind shift) near 26N/91W

What does that mean?

We likely have a broad closed circulation forming. And it is W of where wxman57 and others mentioned earlier this morning when we saw some signs of a low developing around 26N/90W. We have a long way to go before we'll know the real outcome of this storm, IMO.

Thanks srain! Im hopeing thats a good thing for us!?!

[kellybell4770]

Well, probably the most reliable model, the 12Z Euro, has a couple of hundredths total the next week, and the models are coming into amazing consensus that all the trees in Memorial Park and along the highways will die.


But I remain 1/1024 optimistic that some ensemble perturbation of some obscure model nobody uses will show a shower for Houston.

On the brightside, before 93L gets too organized and concentrates the moisture and enhances subsidence, I have some hope that the sea breeze, already sparking a few showers Southwest of the Houston metro, might pop an isolated storm or two closer to home, and some extremely fortunate forum member will get a couple of tenths in a quick shower later this afternoon.

/alwatys the silver lining.

we got about 45 minutes of a good, steady, soaking rain earlier - I was so thankful that I didn't have to carry wash water out to my flowerbed today

as for the invest, I'm praying that we ALL get some rain

[djmike]

Umm, wow..ok, can someone post a "much closer" pic of the recent models?

[TexasBreeze]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_93.gif

Actually models have had a definite trend eastward today and including 18z early runs.

[vci_guy2003]

That's all folks... goodbye and goodluck.

[matthouston]

Rain chances being continuosly lowered for Pasadena.

[jasons2k]

The trends today are *extremely* disheartening. I don't think the absolute final nail is in the coffin for us, but the hammer is tapping it in.

[biggerbyte]

Not done yet, as the forecast isn't 100% in any direction, but all we have in uncertain forecasting is trends. Right now, at least, the trend is bad for Texas. Heartbroken isn't the word for it. Next!!

[srainhoutx]

After e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized.

Residents along the entire Gulf coast from TX to FL should closely monitor the progress of this system into this weekend.

Discussion:
Still not overly confident a tight surface circulation has formed, although one can make out a swirl roughly about 100-150 miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Heavy convection continues to develop and be sheared eastward off of this area. Appears a slow W to WNW motion of this swirl is in progress, although this may be a small vortex center within an overall larger circulation developing over much of the central Gulf. Oil rigs have been reporting 20-35mph winds today over the northern Gulf, so the pressure gradient is starting to tighten. Airforce and NOAA P3 aircraft and in the system currently and should have some word within the next hour on any kind of upgrade depending on what they find and if they can close off a center.

Track:
Big shift in the guidance since this morning with nearly all guidance now having this system move NW toward Louisiana and then picked up by the trough over the Great Lakes and shunted NE. This is a complete 180 degree turn around from the 00Z guidance clustering showing a NW motion then stall and WSW to SW motion down the TX coast. While agreement with the models is good, this is the first runs that have suggested this more NE motion especially the CMC and ECMWF which have been consistently toward the left (TX). Would like to see at least 1-2 more runs and get the aircraft data into the models before buying into this solution. Main point continues to be slow and prolonged impacts for some location along the Gulf coast. Current suggestion is leaning to most of the weather being off just to our east, will have to watch the trends closely!

Intensity:
With models now moving the system more to the NE it spends less time over the Gulf waters. SHIPS and LGEM guidance bring it to a strong tropical storm and this is in line with both the GFDL and the HWRF hurricane forecasting models. Should the system stall or meander more off the Louisiana coast, the intensity could be much stronger.

Impacts:
Will not make any adjustments at the impacts at this time as the latest model runs have thrown a big wrench in what may actually transpire. Would like to get a couple of more model runs out to make sure the latest trend off to the NE will/may hold before making big changes to the expected impacts.

If the more eastward solution does hold, main focus will be extreme fire weather danger over the weekend with increasingly gusty NE winds and dry air moving SW on the west side of the circulation. This would bring some of the worst fire weather concerns to the area that we have seen yet this year.

May send another update depending on what NHC decides to do here in the next hour and what the plane finds.

[wxman57]

Yes, folks, our chances of widespread rain and cool temps this weekend appear to be diminishing. Guess I'll have to resort to some illegal watering tonight as I skipped my watering date yesterday in hope we'd get a drenching by tomorrow.

[tireman4]

WORST. SUMMER. EVER.

[srainhoutx]

18Z...

[Rip76]

[LBAR] So you're sayin' there's a chance... [/LBAR]

this is just depressing.

[Andrew]

Watch all the models shift west tonight.

In all seriousness though I think it is a little too early for everyone to be reacting like this. Without a defined LLC the models very well could be off. Hopefully we will have one this evening and that data can be put into the 00z runs. Not to mention if this system stays weaker, there is a less chance that the trough will shove it to the NE. So keep your eye out before jumping off the bridge.

[Andrew]

I would also like to add a lot of the colder convection continues to pop towards the southern edge of the moisture envelope and a center "relocation" could occur farther south. So keep an eye out for that because I have been looking at that area for a while now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[jeff]

I would also like to add a lot of the colder convection continues to pop towards the southern edge of the moisture envelope and a center "relocation" could occur farther south. So keep an eye out for that because I have been looking at that area for a while now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

While I agree, the center is west of all the convection, so the center would have to get at least S or W of the upper TX coast to have much of a rainfall impact on us. While the models did show that early, even those tracks would have kept most of the rainfall toward the coast and offshore. Bigger threat was going to be coastal flooding and seas with a prolonged fetch over several days. Big threat now will be horrible fire weather if the current track into LA and MS hold.

[Andrew]

I would also like to add a lot of the colder convection continues to pop towards the southern edge of the moisture envelope and a center "relocation" could occur farther south. So keep an eye out for that because I have been looking at that area for a while now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

While I agree, the center is west of all the convection, so the center would have to get at least S or W of the upper TX coast to have much of a rainfall impact on us. While the models did show that early, even those tracks would have kept most of the rainfall toward the coast and offshore. Bigger threat was going to be coastal flooding and seas with a prolonged fetch over several days. Big threat now will be horrible fire weather if the current track into LA and MS hold.

Yea unfortunately shear looks to be a problem. Maybe we will get lucky tonight...

[Andrew]

Also Jeff, while you are here what is your thinking of this storm getting farther west before the steering currents break down? I know (especially this year) the models have been pretty bad when trying to pin down the change in steering currents.