2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon discussion re: potential Gulf disturbance...

FINALLY OVER THE GULF THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS
ENSEMBLES AND SOME OTHER WEAKER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF.
CURRENTLY WILL MAINTAIN A SPOT LOW THAT EMERGES FROM THE SWRN GULF
IN ABOUT A WEEK AS PER TODAYS COORDINATION WITH NHC. THE 06/12Z
GFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SW ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE
00Z GFS RUN AND NOW MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE ECMWF AND OUR PROG
POSITIONS.

[brazoria121]

cold front? we have a cool front coming in? what time period would that be?

[Katdaddy]

From this afternoon Corpus Christi AFD:

THE ONLY ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT LEAST BY THURSDAY. BUT UPPER PATTERN IS SUCH THAT
SYSTEM WOULD ONLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BE WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

[Portastorm]

From this afternoon Corpus Christi AFD:

THE ONLY ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT LEAST BY THURSDAY. BUT UPPER PATTERN IS SUCH THAT
SYSTEM WOULD ONLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BE WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

I'm thinking that the Corpus office made an error and that the word "northwest" was meant to be "northeast." That is what model guidance is showing per the NAM and GFS ... more of a threat to the Central Gulf Coast and, sadly, not us in Texas.

[srainhoutx]

From Houston/Galveston:

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL US AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
DOES NOT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD LIKELY KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT IT IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THE
TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE APPROACH THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF
HURRICANE SEASON NEXT WEEK.

[ticka1]

From Houston/Galveston:

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION AS WE WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL US AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
DOES NOT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD LIKELY KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT IT IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THE
TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE APPROACH THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF
HURRICANE SEASON NEXT WEEK.

I don't see a tropical system being even the answer. Honestly all this talk is depressing because in the long run the high pressure is still inflicting its presence over us. Time for survival mode.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the Euro ensembles are suggesting the W/SW Caribbean, also know as the 'Carla cradle', could see some development in the longer range...

[Belmer]

For what it's worth, the Austin/Round Rock area has a future cast of a pretty well define storm developing in the Gulf/BoC starting on Tuesday inching itself up to the coast into Wednesday...

http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/f ... as-animate

[rnmm]

For what it's worth, the Austin/Round Rock area has a future cast of a pretty well define storm developing in the Gulf/BoC starting on Tuesday inching itself up to the coast into Wednesday...

http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/f ... as-animate

Inching itself to the coast where Belmer? I can't get the image to load. Thanks

[Belmer]

For what it's worth, the Austin/Round Rock area has a future cast of a pretty well define storm developing in the Gulf/BoC starting on Tuesday inching itself up to the coast into Wednesday...

http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/f ... as-animate

Inching itself to the coast where Belmer? I can't get the image to load. Thanks

Sorry for the trouble on the link: I viewed it myself and it won't load either. I'm not sure why. Here is the actual homepage of the Austin/Round Rock news.
http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/

Once you're there you can go to the left side where it says, Futurecast or you can scroll down and it will show the futurecast. Just click on it and you can see from there. Hopefully that link works. BUT, if not, it shows the storm getting close to Texas. Doesn't show it hitting Texas, just shows it spinning up into a storm moving North. We'll see...
But it's not like this is a LONG range computer model. I mean in the futurecast, it shows Lee moving NE and then this storm forming by just Tuesday, well... tomorrow (since it's technically Monday). So we should know something by Monday night into Tuesday-Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Euro has joined the GFS suggesting a Western Gulf storm later this week. While the GFS suggests this feature will head NE into FL, the Euro is hinting a N motion out of the Bay of Campeche and finally inland near Tampico. Another area to monitor is in the Eastern Caribbean. The GFS and Euro suggest that disturbance will strengthen as it heads WNW and develop into a TS/possible Hurricane in the longer range...(the disturbance in the longer range suggested by the Euro is currently located W of Africa)...

[srainhoutx]

The general 'feeling' from various NWS morning discussions is a cautious approach regarding the potential Bay of Campeche feature that the models are sniffing out. With the Euro now onboard, some credence is given re: TC genesis and the more likely track would be NE into Florida with the synoptic pattern that is progged. We will see.

[unome]

I'll be rooting for the ECMWF - TCgen model loop at 144 hrs: GFS, ECM, UKM, FIMY, FIM8

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/plt_loop ... nt.144.gif

[srainhoutx]

All right, the 12Z guidance is in and the global models are 'hinting' a disturbance forming in the Bay of Campeche later in the week. This feature is well modeled and TC genesis to looking a bit better, but caution is advised. One point that can be made is stalled boundaries across those warm Southern Gulf waters does raise an eyebrow and the consistency being show can not readily be tossed aside. If something does spin up, it would tend to be a slow process and linger in/near the Bay of Campeche and slowly lift N of the boundary or trough retreats back N. Something to keep and eye on I suppose...

[ticka1]

Any chance to come towards texas? Or will it go more eastward?

[Andrew]

Any chance to come towards texas? Or will it go more eastward?

A little to early to say for sure. This setup looks similar to Lee's setup. A lot of stalling could occur in the gulf and little movement COULD occur for several days. At the end of the Euro, it did show a ridge setting up to the east but being so far out it is way to early to say anything with confidence. The placement of the low will be key also. If the LLC sets up in BOC there will be less influence from any troughs up north. As of now just keep an eye out for possible development as early as the middle of the week but most likely towards the end of the week (if anything does form). BTW I hope everyone had a good Labor Day.... Mine was full of class.

[Ptarmigan]

Since tropical storms have been getting worn out by dry air, they will not be enough. We need subtropical jet from the Pacific to end the drought. They bring in moist air from the Pacific and over us. More of an El Nino pattern.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Since tropical storms have been getting worn out by dry air, they will not be enough. We need subtropical jet from the Pacific to end the drought. They bring in moist air from the Pacific and over us. More of an El Nino pattern.

When do you see El Nino returning? Winter of 2012-2013? That's when I'm thinking. It's been too long.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

Any chance to come towards texas? Or will it go more eastward?

Typically, storms that develop in the BoC on the trailing ends of fronts do not come this way. In this case, flow across the Texas and the NW Gulf is predicted to be from the NW-N all week. We're confident of that, so we should be protected here. More likely, high pressure to the north will either drive it into Mexico or, it could be picked up by the deep trof over the eastern U.S. and carried toward Florida, as with Opal in 1995.