September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[redneckweather]

* AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MIDWAY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

This line of storms has died down very quickly. Still nothing at all here at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam. I'm glad some places are getting some good rain but pretty damn depressing on my end.

[sleetstorm]

Some areas in San Jacinto, Polk, and Liberty County got 6 inches of rain.

Where did you get that amount from, Ptarmigan?

[Ptarmigan]

Where did you get that amount from, Ptarmigan?

Doppler Radar Estimates
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

[C2G]

Would be nice if the stuff around Dallas held together.


[img]

[djjordan]

Latest mesoscale discussion says it should be on the FWD/HGX county warning area border by around 1AM ...... Even if it doesn't hold together, I'm sure it can shoot some decent outflow boundaries our way for tomorrow ........

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853...854...

VALID 190337Z - 190430Z

CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
853...854...CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE FROM SWRN AR...SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT WITH A FEW SURGING SEGMENTS
ADVANCING UPWARDS OF 30KT TOWARD NWRN LA. LATEST RADAR DATA
SUGGESTS HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX...BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS SQUALL LINE IS SURGING A BIT AND HAS AN OVERALL
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD. GIVEN ITS CURRENT SPEED IT SHOULD ADVANCE
TO A POSITION FROM NCNTRL LA...ARCING SWWD TO THE CWA BORDER OF
FWD/HGX BY 06Z.

[biggerbyte]

Where is everyone? We have a line of bad weather moving in from the north and northwest. It looks like it just might hold together. We'll see. It is worth watching and most everyone is offline.

[biggerbyte]

We also have some cells coming up from the south. As these cells meet the activity coming down from the north, somebody is going to get dumped on.

[biggerbyte]

An event like this and no one is on. LOL

Redneck, you got rain this time. Most everybody else should as well. 60% chances through Tuesday. What a change around here. Does not look to be a severe threat, folks. I'm off to bed.

[ticka1]

I am awake now. Going to hit right at morning rush hour. We need the rain. Let's hope is sticks around all day.

[ticka1]

Thunder and lightning now. Raining now.

[Belmer]

This... is... Amazing...
The front part of the line, (the strongest) well at least move through before rush hour, but it will still be a sloppy mess with the moderate rain behind this storm. MUCH of East Texas from Dallas to Houston saw rain overnight. Much of West Texas and south from San Antonio saw rain these past 2 days. With everyone else seeing spotty rain. This isn't no "drought" buster as we are probably about to start drying things up here again after Wednesday; however, some might not be in an, "exceptional" drought after they do some measuring totals across the area. Some might just be under 'severe' drought. It sure is a sign things have changed and the high pressure has moved away.
Also, I've been watching the Tropics. We can't forget about that yet. The wave that has had some attention all weekend is now at a 60% of development, while the one north to it has a 10% chance of development. All the models on both of these disturbances has it moving due west, with a few curving it off slightly to the north, but those models are moving it to the north due to the fact that if it strengthens, the probability will be it will get caught up in the Atlantic High and shrug the coast, though, if it stays a strong tropical wave or a minimal tropical storm, this thing will definitely be close to the GOM and southern Caribbean by the end of this week. We'll need to watch them.
Hope everyone enjoys the rain this morning. With this much rain coming in this early, I don't see any significant rain later today after this line moves through. However, I could be wrong. IF the sun comes out later today and the clouds get out of here, SOME areas could see the atmosphere get a little unstable and pop up a few storms, but chances of that are slim from what the radar is showing me. Be safe everyone!

[txflagwaver]

Finally!!

[Belmer]

I wouldn't put too much hope on something from the deep tropics this late in the season.

Today's 0Z Euro off of the idea of a piece breaking off the trough and coming West, but since a big Western trough doesn't seem in the cards, a development of non-tropical origin seems the only hope.

This current should minimize fire threat for a while, although there will be dead trees out there in forests until a big wind event or a fire, even if rain returns to normal levels. But grass fires, I'd think we've gained some time, and the trees tha were close to dying but still alive got a reprieve.

Hearing thunder in the morning is nice.

We've had a crazy past few years here in Houston when it comes to weather. It's still middle/end of September. We have two months left of Hurricane season. Yes, it seems more and more unfavorable that anything tropical would spin up and come here. But this rain this morning and the rain we've seen this weekend and will see a little bit through this week just goes to show that things can change in just a matter of a week. Patterns change all the time unexpectedly; we've seen that many times in the past. It's mother nature and she will do as she pleases. Many might have the tropics written off until next summer; and that's fine. However, we might be on the declining side of the season, but all it takes is just one storm...

[srainhoutx]

Glad just about everyone received some badly needed rain. Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms crossing he area this morning with more much needed rainfall.

Upper level trough extending across TX and deep tropical moisture has brought now 3 days of rainfall to the region. Activity was hit/miss on Saturday and Sunday, but fairly widespread this morning as a large MCS from N TX rolled southward across the region. Activity is still ongoing as it marches toward the coast over the next 1-2 hours and expect the greatest coverage through noon will be from about Wharton southwest toward the Victoria and Rockport areas while areas northeast of Wharton begin to slowly dry out.

While models liked the idea of development this afternoon, I believe this MCS has likely overturned the air mass and greatly stabilized the low levels. It appears that after this morning rain chances will be over for today.

Moisture begins to increase late Tuesday and there may be a slight chance for a shower along the sebareeze both Tuesday and Wednesday. Next trough and actual decent cold front will move across the state on Thursday. Looks like enough moisture may pool ahead of this boundary to produce a shot at additional rainfall.

After Thursday a good cold front sweeps across the area pushing the moisture southward as high pressure builds in. Much cooler temperatures with lows in the upper 50’s and highs in the 80’s can be expected into next weekend.

Fire Weather:
No fire weather concerns for the first time in weeks as widespread wetting rains have finally occurred this morning.

Drought:
While this rainfall was extremely welcomed, much more is needed over several weeks/months to end the ongoing drought.

Weekend Rainfall:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5.-1.5 inches occurred across a good part of the region over the weekend from Saturday through this morning. A few locations in southeastern San Jacinto County received upwards of 3-5 inches of rainfall. There were a few places especially across Colorado County where no rain fell.

[redneckweather]

Yep, FINALLY got good solid rain here early this morning...not the type that mists on you for a minute but more of a horse pissing on a flat rock type rain.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon update from Jeff: (note: winds are currently out of the SE in NW Harris County)...

Air mass is starting to recover from the morning thunderstorm complex.

Surface data shows a weak boundary along a line from near Columbus to Humble to Liberty with NW winds NW of this line and SE winds southeast of this line producing low level convergence near this boundary. Surface heating this morning has warmed temperatures in to the 80’s and with the air mass being uncapped there is growing potential for additional development this afternoon along and south of the above mentioned boundary.

In fact the 12Z 4km WRF models does show fairly decent development this afternoon from Liberty County across central Harris County and then W out I-10 with a line of storms progressing southward from that point toward the coast by evening. Still not sure that the air mass has fully recovered from the morning event, but enough recovery looks to take place, especially if heating can continue, to result in at least scattered thunderstorms across the southern ½ of the region through this evening. A look out the window suggest TCu to the north which supports the idea that the air mass is gradually becoming unstable again.

Storms that develop should move south to southwest toward the coast and offshore this evening and toward Matagorda Bay. Other area of interest is surface outflow boundary from morning convection near a line from Seadrift to west of Victoria. This boundary is clearly defined on visible images and shows enhanced cumulus development in the last 2 hours suggestive that storms may try and develop in this area. SPC meso analysis shows CAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg in this region and a few strong storms will be possible.

[srainhoutx]

So much for the late week front. The 12Z Euro has backed away from any frontal boundary sweeping across the area and in fact that model washes the front out well to our N. Models are also trending further E with the trough and that would mean mid 90's returning to the SE TX.

[jasons2k]

I see the boundary. It's not moving yet (good) but it's still a good 3-5 miles just south of my house (bad).

[wxman57]

So much for the late week front. The 12Z Euro has backed away from any frontal boundary sweeping across the area and in fact that model washes the front out well to our N. Models are also trending further E with the trough and that would mean mid 90's returning to the SE TX.

I think it's still showing a fairly decent front Thursday, as is the GFS. Not anything to get us into the 50 deg range, but maybe close to 60-62 at night and upper 80s for highs.

I measured 0.88" rain Saturday, 0.2" Sunday and 1.02" this morning for a weekend total of 2.1". Heaviest rain since January (for any month).

[texoz]

Austin's Camp Mabry got 0.16 and Bergstrom got a Trace.