November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[sambucol]

Are the models suggesting we MAY get some winter precip down here next week?

[Belmer]

Are the models suggesting we MAY get some winter precip down here next week?

I doubt will have snow/sleet this far south mainly due to the Gulf temps. Looks like as of now you'll have to make a drive north to see that. Maybe around the Lufkin area. But these are long range computer models. If you remember anything from last year, lots of frustration comes from those long models. We might wake up tomorrow morning and it have highs in the 70s with sunshine. Have to play it day by day.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, we know Winter miracle season can start as early as December 5th, so its not impossible miracle weather could happen last few days of November...

It is possible that snow could fall as early as late November in Houston, but that went unrecorded. I know sleet has fallen in late November of 1976.

[redneckweather]

Belmer, it seems you are talking about the front late week the beginning of December? If so, post your thoughts in the December so know one gets confused the current front that will coming into tomorrow...like I just did. I would like to here your thoughts since I am traveling about an hour north of Waco early Friday morning and staying the weekend.


Carry on.

[srainhoutx]

SPC has issued a Slight Risk just to our E and into Louisiana for tomorrow...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
PROGRESSION OF PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
AND FORMS A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
EVOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SEWD INTO
TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR A SHARPENING FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS WRN AR/ERN TX BY 18Z BEFORE SURGING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLIER THOUGHTS WERE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WOULD BE A BIT MEAGER TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUCH
THAT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 17-18Z. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS
THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG A FORCED FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST THINKING IS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LINEAR STRUCTURE.
EVEN SO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS FAVOR AT LEAST A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. PROGRESSION OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKER BUOYANCY OVER ERN MS/SWRN AL.

..DARROW/SMITH.. 11/26/2011

[srainhoutx]

SPC expands Slight Risk slight W:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX TO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS
CONTINUED PHASING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER THE PLAINS RESULTS IN A
NARROW...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM LK SUPERIOR TO E TX BY 12Z SUN.
AT THE SFC...THE UPR LVL CHANGES SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF
EXISTING COLD FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL IA TO N TX.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH A JBR/MLU/LFT LINE BY THIS EVE...AND THE
MS-AL BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS...MARKED BY LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW PRESENT FROM FAR ERN OK SSW ACROSS THE TX GULF
CSTL PLN...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS THAT FEATURE IS OVERTAKEN BY PACIFIC COLD
FRONT NOW OVER CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER E...IN ZONE
OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LA...MS...AND THE N
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING UPR TROUGH.

COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW /WITH PW RISING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/ COULD SUPPORT POTENTIALLY
STRONG STORMS OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY AND
TNGT...GIVEN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT SSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND INCREASING
UPR DIVERGENCE IN SE PART OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT. BUT SETUP COULD YIELD A BROKEN BAND OF
STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS THAT POSE A THREAT FOR
DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM SE TX ONTO
LA THIS AFTN AND EVE. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALSO WILL
EXIST WITH ANY MORE SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG
LOW LVL CONFLUENCE FARTHER EAST ACROSS ERN LA...WRN AND SRN
MS...AND THE CNTRL GULF CST THROUGH EARLY SUN. NEWD PROGRESSION OF
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKER BUOYANCY OVER
NRN/ERN MS AND MOST OF AL.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 11/26/2011

[srainhoutx]

I've just picked up a quick 1/2 inch of rain with more on the way in NW Harris County. The cold front is heading S and E for the Permian Basin area this hour and very breezy conditions are happening behind the front with much cooler temps.

[jasons2k]

I'm up to 1/2" here as well. This is good

[srainhoutx]

SPC shifts Slight Risk E of Houston area:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS
VLY AND CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST...

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY...
UPDATED FCST WILL REDUCE SVR PROBABILITIES OVER E TX/UPR TX COAST
WHERE COLD OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED AIR MASS. OTHERWISE...FCST IN
TACT.

MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD WITH 30-100 METER 12-HR H5
FALLS THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL AR AND CNTRL LA
BY THIS EVE.

PREFRONTAL BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM CNTRL AR SWWD TO THE UPR
TX COAST WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STG-SVR TSTMS THIS
AFTN/EVE AS FEATURE IS OVERTAKEN BY THE PRIMARY CDFNT. OTHER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONFLUENCE
ZONE OVER SCNTRL/SERN LA...MAY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY
THIS EVE/TONIGHT AS THE UPR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

VISIBLE SATL SUGGESTS THAT WEAK HEATING WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION. INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AND
PERSISTENT LLVL MOISTURE INFLOW COULD SUPPORT STG
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/ERN AR SWWD INTO CNTRL/WRN LA THIS
AFTN. PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF SSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED
VENTING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPR SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RATHER WARM
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS MAY MITIGATE OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
BAND OF STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING ENTITIES
POSSIBLY PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO CNTRL LA THIS AFTN.

A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALSO WILL EXIST WITH
COMPARATIVELY MORE SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED LLVL CONFLUENCE ZONE FARTHER EAST ACROSS ERN LA...WRN
AND SRN MS...AND THE CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY SUN. NEWD
PROGRESSION OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKER
BUOYANCY OVER NRN/ERN MS AND MOST OF AL.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-262000-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1031 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

...BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

BROADCAST MEDIA IS REPORTING A COUPLE OF SIGHTINGS OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS SINCE 10AM...ONE NEAR PEARLAND AND ONE OVER WEST HOUSTON.
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE UNLIKELY TO TOUCH THE
GROUND.

[mckinne63]

Just started raining again in Stafford. Coming down pretty good. I can see the wind starting to whip up too. Got home just in time.

[srainhoutx]

I've picked up over an inch and still falling moderately in NW Harris County and even hearing some rumbles of thunder. Harris County rainfall gauges showing some areas to the N and W nearing or just over the 2 inch mark. Those of you down S are about to get in on the action. The front is currently nearing Austin. This morning’s rains have been along a pre frontal trough that is slowly heading toward the Coast. HGX mid day update:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY DECENT PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX . WHILE MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS JUST BEEN SHRA...A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE DEV-
ELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE A BIT
STRONGER WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES INCREASING WITHIN THESE TSRA BANDS
THESE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS FAR WE ARE GETTING WIDESPREAD 0.5
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE THIS MORNING FOR AREA NORTH OF H-59 BUT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS HIGHWAY SHOULD CATCH UP THIS AFTN. LOOKING
AT OBS BEHIND THE FRONT CONSIDERING EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA (TO MIRROR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES).

[txflagwaver]

Just started raining good here...no wind yet

[unome]

a very nice rain day, close to 1.5" here http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[redneckweather]

The front hit here just south of Lake Conroe dam about 25 to 30 minutes ago....big gust of cool wind when it first hit. I also got about 1.5" of rain here at the house. If this is a weak La Nina.....thank you mother maybe I have another!

[brazoriatx]

Has the front already pushed off the coast or was the rain just ahead of it

[srainhoutx]

Has the front already pushed off the coast or was the rain just ahead of it

The rain was ahead of the actual front along a pre frontal trough. The cold front and breezy NW winds are nearing the central areas of our CWA at this time. College Station is gusting into the 30's at the hour and the actual frontal boundary just passed my location in NW Harris County.

[unome]

here's a cool mesonet map from NWS Western Region Headquarters:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... &density=1

[ticka1]

I have 58 degrees at 7:15 p.m. - its been dropping all evening! How cold is it suppose to get tonight?

[unome]

chilly for Baytown !!! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &dd=0&bw=0