December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[redneckweather]

No kidding....these pop up ads are freakin driving me crazy! Where in the heck did they come from?

[Ptarmigan]

HPC Final Update spells all all the issues and impacts early next week...and the fact that any cool down will be short lived...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 17 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 21 2011

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND ADJACENT WATERS EWD TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THEN SWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NRN CANADA YIELDING A VERY
POSITIVE NAO.

FINAL PROGS STAYED WITH THE BLEND OF 70% 06Z GEFS AND 30% 00Z GEFS
MEAN. IN OUR UPDATE...WE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY IN THE GEFS MEAN THIS PERIOD WAS STAYING ABOVE LATITUDE
40N. ALSO...WE NOTED A TREND IN RECENT GFS RUNS FOR A TRAILING
TROF/SHEAR AXIS BEHIND THE EJECTING SWRN CONUS LOW TO BE WEAKER.
THEREFORE...WE THOUGHT THAT THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
EJECTING SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE MORE ACCURATE. AT FIRST THE 12Z/14
UKMET/GFS SEEMED TO CONFIRM THIS REASONING.

THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CHALLENGE HINGES ON TIMING THE
EJECTION OF A CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING NRN STREAM INTERACTION FROM THE CENTRAL US. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE QUICKER TO EJECT THE LOW ON MON/DAY
5...ENTRAINING NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO IT AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DEEPENED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND POINTS EWD TUE/DAY 6. THE 00Z
GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 06Z/12 GFS WERE SLOWER EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW. THE 00Z GFS WAS IN STEP WITH THE BULK OF THE 12Z/13
FULL ENSEMBLE SUITE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS. IT
SHOWED A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE WEAKENING ERSTWHILE
SWRN CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A FLATTER PATTERN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE TIME WE PREFERRED TO STAY JUST A BIT SLOWER
THAN 00Z GFS CONTINUITY WITH THE UPPER LOW AT LEAST THRU DAY 5.
THE 12Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT TIMING IN ITS CONTINUITY ON THE SWRN
CLOSED LOW FROM ITS 06Z RUN...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z UKMET
THRU DAY 5.

HOWEVER...THE FASTER 00Z/14 ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOT DEAD YET!
CRUCIAL TO THE INTERACTION OF THE SRN STREAM SYS WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY IS THE SHARPENING OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALONG 130W SUN EVE.
THE NON GFS MODELS SHARPEN UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE FAR ENOUGH S TO INTERACT WITH THE EJECTING SRN STREAM
LOW WHILST THE 12Z GFS DOES NOT. THE 12Z ECMWF JOINS THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN IN BECOMING OVER A HALF DAY FASTER BY TUE DAY 6 IN
BRINGING REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OUT. THE NEW UKMET
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FASTER FROM THE GFS LATER DAY 5 AS IT SHOWS
MORE NRN STREAM INTERACTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES. THE
NEW CANADIAN STARTS OFF WITH THE SAME TIMING AS THE GFS DAYS 3-4
BUT USES NRN STREAM ENERGY TO BECOME EVEN FASTER THAN THE OLD GFS
RUN FOR TUE-WED DAYS 6-7.

AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW COMES OUT OF THE SWRN STATES IT SHOULD
GENERATE A MAJOR PCPN EVENT FOR MUCH OF TX/OK/AR. THIS SYS HAS
POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF OK
AND AND NW CENTRAL TX. AS THE SYS EXITS THE SRN PLAINS RAIN COULD
END AS A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SN IN OK.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL NOT PERMIT CONDS TO STAY
VERY COLD FOR LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION. THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE
COLD SPELLS OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN AROUND WED. THE WEST WILL
BE CHILLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Let's hope for rain. I can live with a warmer winter if it means we can put an end to this drought.

[Ptarmigan]

No kidding....these pop up ads are freakin driving me crazy! Where in the heck did they come from?

They are really annoying.

[Andrew]

No kidding....these pop up ads are freakin driving me crazy! Where in the heck did they come from?

They are really annoying.

This is a great blocking service that will block most all ads:

http://adblockplus.org/en/

[South_Texas_Storms]

I agree Ptarmigan. I will be so happy when our drought finally ends!

[srainhoutx]

There is a bit better agreement with the 00Z operational suite regarding Sunday- Tuesday . The Euro has been trending away from the drier, open trough solution as well as being a bit too progressive with the ejection of the upper low near the Baja. It has joined the GFS suggesting a fully closed, more potent storm as well as slower moving allowing the Northern stream storm system and attending cold front to proggress further S into the Central/Southern Plains. The solution of a slower moving system seems to fit the zonal flow we are witnessing at this current time. As the SW upper low (5H) slowly treks E, the stage appears to be set for a fairly significant Winter Storm for New Mexico, W. Texas and the Panhandle as well as Oklahoma. There is even some indications of possible wintry mischief for parts of N Texas as the cold core, fully wrapped up low passes with some wrap around precip. That said, there still remains some questions regarding the trach of the upper low. The GFS provides a further S across TX while the Euro/Canadian modes suggest a bit furthe N across the Panhandle into Oklahoma. For locations further S, heavy rains appear to be possible in drought parched Central and East Texas. There is a chance that a signiicant squall line may form and sweep S and E as the upper low passes to our N.

Today will offer changeable weather for SE Texas as a Pacific front slowly sags S and E. Rqin chances should increase as the day goes on, but better chances will follow behind the front as over running conditions become establishee through Saturday. Sunday appears to the calmer day in the forecast ahead as the frontal boundary retreats N as the SW low begins its journey across Northern Mexico.

This is still a rather volatile forecast period and further fine tuning can be expected.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cloudy and wet period on tap for the region through the weekend.

Sea fog has spread back inland along the coast this morning from the TX/LA state line to Matagorda Bay as a humid Gulf air mass continues to ride over the cold near shore waters chilling the air to saturation. At 600am visibilities ranged from ¼ to ½ of a mile at most reporting sites south of US 59. With much weaker winds in place today, expect dense sea fog to hang tough along the coast and in the bays through much of the day and into this evening prior to the arrival of the next front tonight.

Pre frontal trough currently knocking on the door of our northwest counties this morning or along a line from near Texarkana to Temple to NW of Del Rio with actual front northwest of that boundary over NW TX. Front will overtake the pre frontal trough today and very slowly move across the area. It appears that the boundary will take at least the next 18-24 hours to move to the coast…and will finally crawl offshore early Friday morning near sunrise. Expect a few streamer type showers today ahead of the boundary, but the bulk of the rainfall will come tonight into early Friday as the front moves southward and the warm humid Gulf air mass is lifted over the top of the shallow cold dome. Will likely see widespread .5 to 1.0 inch of rain this afternoon through Friday evening across much of the region. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s behind the front and remain in the muggy 60’s and 70’s ahead of the boundary. Sea fog will continue to plague the coastal sites until the front reaches the coast Friday and at times may reduce visibilities to less than ½ of a mile.

Slow moving front gives up and stalls off the coast Friday afternoon as the main short wave moves NE away from the area leaving the boundary to linger over the NW Gulf. Next upper level storm system clearly noted in the water vapor off the NW US coast will drop SE into NW MX late Friday and then cut off from the main upper level steering flow. This will produce a favorable SW flow aloft over the top of the surface cold dome Friday afternoon and Saturday with warm Gulf air mass being push up and over the cold surface dome. The result will be cloudy, fog, drizzle, and light rain off and on through Saturday across the region with temperatures being held in the 50’s.

Should start to see the offshore boundary begin to move northward as a warm front Sunday as the northern MX upper level storm begins to move eastward although this boundary may be slower to move northward than the models suggest keeping most of the area cool and cloudy on Sunday. Forecast models are in decent agreement on the track of this system out of NE MX and across NW TX Monday afternoon with a strong Pacific cold front sweeping west to east across the state late Monday-Tuesday. Warm front should move northward late Sun-Mon with a return of muggy temperatures and sea fog as dewpoints push above near shore water temperatures by late Sunday. Combination of strong dynamics, plentiful moisture, and good surface convergence will likely result in a line/band of thunderstorms with this system Monday night/Tuesday morning. Severe parameters currently look marginal, but the track and intensity of this system needs to be watched over the next few days.

Additional widespread wetting rainfall tonight-Saturday night will continue to help ease the ongoing drought conditions across the area. More rainfall looks likely early next week and many SE TX counties may be able to be dropped out of the D4 (exceptional drought) status should these rains materialize as forecasted. Back to back widespread rainfalls may also be enough to finally generate some inflow into area lakes for the first time in months. Active pattern of late has brought much needed rainfall to nearly the entire state over the past 2 months and December has continued the wet trend….a trend atypical of a La Nina winter!

[niner21]

This weather blows....

Fog, muggy, 67 degrees, rain on and off. PUKE!!!

If I can get the roof on my second job today then it will be okay.

I DEMAND DRY WEATHER JUST WHERE I AM. LOL, sound like anyone you know?

[JackCruz]

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Anyone notice the GFS Long Range Models? I'm just a weather nerd and not a professional by any means, but its looking to be a cold New Years!

Any of you promets seeing this?

[wxman57]

Anyone notice the GFS Long Range Models? I'm just a weather nerd and not a professional by any means, but its looking to be a cold New Years!

Any of you promets seeing this?

Welcome to the forum! I'm certainly not seeing anything on the 12Z GFS run just out. No indication through 15 days of any significant cold building in western Canada.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Thank you!

I should have prefaced that I was talking about January and not actually New Years Day.

A few promets out there are noting a 'major stratwarm' that will cause a severe cold outbreak for much of January. They are relating it to the winter of 1984-1985.

[srainhoutx]

Thank you!

I should have prefaced that I was talking about January and not actually New Years Day.

A few promets out there are noting a 'major stratwarm' that will cause a severe cold outbreak for much of January. They are relating it to the winter of 1984-1985.

I believe you are referring to JB as well as some others. At this time there are only hints of a possible SSW event. At this time nothing is indicted via guidance that this is an absolute. We'll need to watch the trends over the next couple of weeks and see if the Polar Vortex is disrupted and a true reversal of upper air flow occurs that indicates a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is under way. The lag time is usually around 10+ days from such an event and everything will depend on what side of the hemisphere the cold air builds and where the displaced PV becomes established, if it even occurs.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

yes, I was referring to JB and Cosgrove.

Chinese Weather Centre is predicting a cold January and February for the U.S.

I have my doubts, but thought it was interesting.

[srainhoutx]

There still remains a lot of uncertainty regard the future track of the Sunday-Monday upper low. The GFS trended away from any significant wintry mischief for the Panhandle, while the Euro has trended a bit better for some back end snowfall across New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. For our area, rains still look likely and even a rumble or two of thunder as the secondary front passes.

No significant changes for the next 3 days it would appear. Over running rain/drizzle should begin tonight into tomorrow. We'll need to monitor the potential for a coastal trough development and a possible coastal low which would tend to increase chances for heavier rainfall and even a rumble of thunder, depending if, when and where the trough /low establishes.

[srainhoutx]

CPC Updated Outlook suggest below normal temps and above normal rainfall for the rest of Decemeber...

[djmike]

As usual...It looks like HOU/BPT are "in-between" the rains. Hopefully this changes SOON! I'm sure East TX will get all of the good rains too and NOT Southeast Texas.....Grrrr

[srainhoutx]

HGX re issues Dense Fog Advisories for Coastal Waters from Brazoria County E including Galveston Bay until 6:00AM tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

The front is catching up with the pre frontal trough currently draped across the northern areas from La Grange to Huntsville. Temps have cooled to the upper 50's in the Austin area and College Station has fallen to 60F at this hour.

[tireman4]

The front is catching up with the pre frontal trough currently draped across the northern areas from La Grange to Huntsville. Temps have cooled to the upper 50's in the Austin area and College Station has fallen to 60F at this hour.

Meanwhile, I will be suffering on my run today. Thank you Mother Nature...Sigh...

Edit: And I did. It was not nice....sigh....