December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[JackCruz]

Is there going to be storm system moving through the Houston area around Christmas day and or 1-2 days after Christmas?

Accuweather has the 26th December down for a high of 62 and low of 33 (with rain both morning and some rain at night). Also the 28th December a high of 58 and low of 33 (with rain throughout the day and period of rains at night). Just wondering, because I know it's still far out.

Just wondering what's a cross-polar flow and how does it affect SE Texas? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Is there going to be storm system moving through the Houston area around Christmas day and or 1-2 days after Christmas?

Accuweather has the 26th December down for a high of 62 and low of 33 (with rain both morning and some rain at night). Also the 28th December a high of 58 and low of 33 (with rain throughout the day and period of rains at night). Just wondering, because I know it's still far out.

Just wondering what's a cross-polar flow and how does it affect SE Texas? Thanks.

The active pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future with upper lows dropping S into the Desert SW every 3-4 days. The northern jet is very zonal across the US/Canadian border. There are no indications of a cross polar flow at this time. We will need to watch after the New Year begins to see if the AO goes negative and monitor any cold air building across Siberia/Eurasia. There is no real chilly air to be had right now in Western Canada. That will need to change before any real Arctic intrusion can be expected into the Lower 48.

[JackCruz]

Is there going to be storm system moving through the Houston area around Christmas day and or 1-2 days after Christmas?

Accuweather has the 26th December down for a high of 62 and low of 33 (with rain both morning and some rain at night). Also the 28th December a high of 58 and low of 33 (with rain throughout the day and period of rains at night). Just wondering, because I know it's still far out.

Just wondering what's a cross-polar flow and how does it affect SE Texas? Thanks.

The active pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future with upper lows dropping S into the Desert SW every 3-4 days. The northern jet is very zonal across the US/Canadian border. There are no indications of a cross polar flow at this time. We will need to watch after the New Year begins to see if the AO goes negative and monitor any cold air building across Siberia/Eurasia. There is no real chilly air to be had right now in Western Canada. That will need to change before any real Arctic intrusion can be expected into the Lower 48.

Gotcha

[srainhoutx]

The pre frontal trough has passed Brenham this hour. The front has cleared College Station as their winds have switched to the NNE @ 15 MPH.

[svrwx0503]

The front can be picked up on radar progressing west to east across far western Harris county. The front has passed through old town Katy and looks to have just passed Cypress (290 and Fry rd. area). High resolution models have been doing an ok job with the handling of the front and associated precip thus far. Look for rain to slowly increase behind the front through the overnight hours with the front possibly not reaching Galveston until 10-11z even though the pre-frontal trough has passed through Victoria and will likely be passing by Palacios a little after midnight.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a rainy night. Bring on the rain!

[srainhoutx]

The front continues to slowly sag S across the area. Over running rain and even a rumble or two of thunder are possible behind the front. Light rain and drizzle look to continue until Saturday. The big question will be as the front retreats N on Sunday and will we see the clouds begin to break. Monday could be warm depending on cloud cover before the next storm approaches.

Guidance has come into much better agreement regarding the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. The solutions suggest the cold core upper low will eject ENE across Northern Mexico crossing near or just S of Amarillo and trek across the Red River Valley on Monday into Tuesday. Wrap around snow looks likely from the Guadalupe Mountains across the Panhandle and Oklahoma. A strong line of rains/storms should head E across Texas with the front bringing much cooler temps for Tuesday night.

The next in a series of upper lows drop S into the Baja Region mid week. The interesting thing to note is that systems is suggested by guidance to trek much further S across Mexico and S Central Texas next Thursday and Friday. A stronger push of 'colder' air is suggested to push S ahead of the feature as a Northern Stream Storm crosses the N Rockies/N Plains. Most all the guidance suggest that the Southern system will shear out as it crosses Texas, but caution is again advised as these upper air lows/disturbances are a nightmare to forecast beyond day 3. Right now it appears Christmas Eve could be damp and rather chilly. Stay tuned as they say. Expect changes in the Christmas Holiday timeframe.

[biggerbyte]

So much for rain chances around here. Most of the rains were in north and northeast Texas, as well as offshore. Some got something, at least. Porter has received just scattered showers since Thursday morning. Nothing particularly steady or heavy.

[djmike]

...as usual. As I posted a page or two back. Again, north TX and E. TX (not SETX) continues to always get the bulk of the rains. The line of strong storms seems to ALWAYS end just north of Beaumont leaving Houston/Beaumont with the scattered hit and miss "light" rain. I wish this continueous storm track would just shift a tad further south so that Houston/Beaumont area could "really" see some beneficial rains. NOT these "tail end" puny little showers.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active weather pattern to continue into Christmas.

Cold front has finally cleared the coast after taking all night to move across the region. Numerous showers are in progress over the offshore waters and the NW Gulf this morning along and ahead of this boundary. Otherwise cool and cloudy of the land area with little rainfall noted on radar. In fact rainfall has been on the lower spectrum of the guidance overnight and much of the area has only seen amounts of .25 to .50 of an inch.

Water vapor shows the next upper level storm system dropping SSE into N MX this morning with a downstream sub-tropical flow extending from the central Pacific across TX. Some enhancement is noted over central old MX and this area of lift may help to enhance the overrunning of warm Gulf air mass over the surface cool dome this afternoon into early Saturday with some of the offshore showers moving back inland and along the coast as suggested by the 00Z WRF model. In fact this process may already be unfolding near the coastal bend as showers are currently moving toward the NNE around Matagorda Bay. Overall additional rainfall amounts through Saturday evening will be light and average less than .25 of an inch in mainly very light rain and drizzle. Models have tended to be somewhat aggressive with the recent overrunning patterns of late but in the end only modest rainfall amounts transpire.

Upper level storm in northern MX will very slowly move ENE toward TX by early next week promoting the return of the current frontal boundary northward as a warm front in the Sunday evening time period. May see some rainfall potential late Sunday as the warm front moves across the area, but much of this may be more in the form of low clouds and drizzle over actual rainfall.

Area should be warm sectored (warm and muggy) Monday with decent southerly flow as the upper level storm shears across NW TX. Pacific cold front will drive eastward across the state late Monday-Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance has this system a touch more toward the north and capping developing out of northern MX late Monday suggesting the southern extent of the rainfall may be around I-10. Conditions looked much more favorable yesterday for wetting rains than today with this system.

Colder behind this system, but yet again models are now showing another upper level storm dropping into the SW US toward the middle of next week as the current pattern is stuck in repeat mode. May not see significant clearing now behind the Tuesday storm and rain chances may re-enter the forecast as early as Wed-Thurs. No significant cold air outbreaks on the horizon, but highs in the 50’s and lows in the 40’s look possible for the middle to end of next week.

[JackCruz]

GFS looking "interesting" again for Houston..only if we had the cold to support it and if the models were reliable this far out....*sigh*

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests near blizzard conditions possible across the Amarillo area for Monday. That model also is suggesting an over night frontal passage for our area with heavier rains along and ahead the frontal boundary.

[srainhoutx]

GFS looking "interesting" again for Houston..only if we had the cold to support it and if the models were reliable this far out....*sigh*

Yes, JackCruz. It certainly is interesting...

[wxman57]

Possibly precip Christmas weekend, but there just isn't much cold air available. Euro indicates temps 15-30F above normal across the Northern Plains into western and central Canada next week. GFS (below) has some cool air next week, but nothing extraordinary. Doesn't go out far enough on the high-res part of the run to capture the 25th yet.

[jasons2k]

Only one thought this morning: "how the heck does that happen??"

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro trended a bit further S suggesting some impressive snowfall totals across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Snows appear more likely for northern OK on into MO. That model also suggests a strong line of storms sweeps E across Texas Monday afternoon into the night time hours.

[srainhoutx]

HGP Final Update suggests a very active pattern leading up to the long Christmas Holiday period...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
214 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2011

VALID 12Z MON DEC 19 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 23 2011


A POLAR JET DISPLACED N OF NORMAL WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HEMISPHERE AS THE NAO IS IN A VERY POSITIVE PHASE.
IN GENERAL...MID LATITUDE HEIGHTS BELOW 45N WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. FLAT BUT STRONG RIDGES SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE ERN PACIFIC
AND OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE LOWER 48. BETWEEN SRN PORTIONS OF
THESE TWO RIDGES...THERE SHOULD BE A NEGATIVE ANOMALY ALONG THE
US/MEXICAN BORDER. THIS NEGATIVE ANOMALY WILL ACT AS A MAGNET FOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE POSITION THEN
DROPPING SE ON THE E SIDE OF THAT RIDGE. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST TWO IMPORTANT CLOSED UPPER SYS WILL DEVELOP
VICINITY OF NRN BAJA CA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AS SYS EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN STATES THEY WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE AND BRING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
SRN PLAINS THAT HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SEVERE DROUGHT. THE FIRST OF
THESE EJECTIONS WILL OCCUR MON-WED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SYS NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY CONCERNING NEXT WEEKENDS
SYS SINCE ITS EJECTION FROM THE SW BORDER STATES DEPENDS ON THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WRN STATES.

FINAL GRAPHICS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PRELIM UPDATE.
GIVEN BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS BY DAY 5...THE
UPDATED PROGS LEANED TOWARDS A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF GEFS/ECENS
ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF....ESPECIALLY BY THU/FRI DAYS
6-7. THE 00Z/16 GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN AGREED WITH EACH OTHER
FAIRLY WELL FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAD A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE
GEFS MEAN DAY 6-7 AS IT KEEPS HEIGHT HIGHER OVER THE ERN CONUS AND
RELOADS THE WRN TROF A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MEAN. THE 12Z/16
ECMWF SUPPORTS THE RELOADING OF THE WRN CONUS MEAN TROF BY DAYS
6-7.


THE 12Z/16 GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF WITH BOTH
CLOSED SYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOWER 48 DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. IT WAS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYS AFFECTING THE
COUNTRY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND HAS GONE HALFWAY TOWARDS
THE SLOWER ECMWF ON THE FOLLOWING SYS. 12Z GFS CONTINUITY IN THE
POLAR PACIFIC JET ENTERING NOAM BEGINNING DAY 4 THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD IS NON EXISTENT. THE UKMET/CANADIAN OFFER BETTER
CONTINUITY IN THE PACIFIC THAN THE GFS...AND DAYS MON/TUE 3-4 ARE
CLOSE TO THE 12Z/16 GFS TIMING ON THE SYS AFFECTING THE SWRN
STATES THRU THE OH VLY. THE UKMET THEN BECOMES FASTER ON THE LEAD
SYS. BY THU DAY 6 THE CANADIAN FALLS BY THE WAYSIDE AS IT GETS TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE/WRN NOAM TROF PATTERN. THE
12Z/16 ECMWF HAS DECENT CONTINUITY FROM ITS 00Z RUN. WHILE OUR
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN IT IS NOT HIGH...IT IS STILL HIGHER THAN OTHER
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON MOST FEATURES. IT HAS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET IN DIGGING NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE GRT BASIN BY
THU DAY 6.

[srainhoutx]

We wish you well in your new position, forecaster Moreland. We will miss your informative forecasts from HGX:...

THIS WILL BE MY LAST FORECAST AFTER 13 YEARS AT WFO HGX. THANKS TO
THE STAFF HERE FOR MAKING THIS A GREAT OFFICE TO WORK IN. I HAVE
LEARNED A LOT HERE. LOTS OF MEMORIES OF THE MAJOR EVENTS WE HAVE
WORKED TOGETHER TOO. LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING TOGETHER AGAIN
AND CROSSING PATHS DOWN THE ROAD.

35

[JackCruz]

Just for the fun of it....

[singlemom]

*sigh* If only that snow depth would oooch down our way. I'm having Steamboat withdrawal.