January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[Andrew]

Look out for the canadian I will post a picture of that once it updates on psu e wall.

[biggerbyte]

Tease!!!

[Andrew]

CMC: A lot of fun for everyone especially north and west of Houston.

The Canadian goes completely crazy. I mean we would be looking at blizzard conditions around central Texas and some serious cold air advection. The cold air is sent straight south causing some severe cold weather. Also a couple days later the Canadian suggests round two with some more winter weather....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow that gives me happy thoughts for Conroe

[Rich]

Wow this is music to my ears!!

[singlemom]

Wow that gives me happy thoughts for Conroe

Maaaaan so close to Spring I can taste it. I see Charlie Brown and that football, though, dang it!!!

(Thanks for all the great analysis, everyone!!)

[srainhoutx]

Let’s get the immediate weather concerns out of the way first before we get into what may happen later next week. Fog has formed mainly S of I-10 and foggy conditions may linger until mid morning. Guidance is in good agreement concerning wintry weather in W and N Central Texas and with showers/storms and heavy rainfall chances in the warm sector. Showers and some heavier storms begin to fire in Central Texas Sunday afternoon/evening and spread E overnight. At the same time a Coastal low develops and heavy rainfall chances increase early Monday throughout the day and a risk of training showers/storms may be possible along and N of the boundary/surface low on Monday.

Back in the cold sector, light wintry precip appears very likely from New Mexico, W Texas and perhaps the N and Western Hill Country on into the Southern Panhandle has guidance suggests a bit of a southern trek of the deepening upper low.

The Euro/Canadian/UKMet solutions all suggest the storm track will be across Central Texas. Wrap around precip is possible on Tuesday if the Euro solution plays out as it passes the U/L over SE TX and on ENE.

As this storm system passes, a northern stream storm develops and a strong cold front begins diving S into the Plains with Canadian air. All the guidance drops another upper low inland along the W Coast. The Euro continues to advertise a slow/stall solution while all other guidance suggest this feature will trek ESE from the Desert SW as the strong front passes Texas on Thursday. This is when the guidance begins to diverge. As we saw, the Canadian has been insistent on a wintry mischief solution for several cycles. The GFS has hinted at this and the GFS Ensembles would suggest that there is a chance of that happening. The UKMet has the upper air feature and the front and cold air in place, so it tends to agree. The Operational Euro suggests the cold stay to our N and the U/L lingers W and is delayed by a couple of days. Examining the Euro ensembles, there is a change with the 00Z output suggesting enough cold air in place and the spread would also suggest the U/L is further E near or S of the Big Bend Region. This is a very changeable forecast and very low confidence and a slower ejection E of the upper lows has been the trend since December.

Once we get beyond the storm at hand, all eyes will turn toward the possible weather events prior to the Olympic Trails Marathon on Saturday. Stay tuned as we appear to be headed toward a very interesting period and much colder air may be on the horizon in the longer range beyond next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa issues Winter Storm Warning for snow amounts in the 4-6+ range. San Angelo issues Winter Storm Watch for their NW CWA condisering Watch/Warning for entire area if Euro/CMC track appears likely.

[Belmer]

Let's hope that can be us under those watches and warnings by Thursday, heh?

A man can only hope, right?

[wxman57]

The air aloft will be way too warm for anything but rain here tomorrow (50s). There's just now new Canadian air coming south until next Thursday. Neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates any freezes here through 16 days. If you want to see snow, head to far west TX or the panhandle.

6:46: heading over to the med center to watch the imlosion of the Prudential building:
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... to-1999501

Implosion postponed due to fog. Biking down there at 8:45, as they said 9:30.

[srainhoutx]

6:46: heading over to the med center to watch the imlosion of the Prudential building:
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... to-1999501

Implosion postponed due to fog. Biking down there at 8:45, as they said 9:30.

There went another piece of my 'Houston History'. My Mom worked for Prudential at that location in the 50's-60's...

SPC Morning Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2012

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TODAY BEFORE DECELERATING OVER NM/WRN TX INTO
N-CNTRL MEXICO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SERN INTO DEEP S TX WILL RETREAT NWWD
IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING FROM ERN TX
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

...CNTRL/SRN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM /EMBEDDED WITH SUBTROPICAL
AIR STREAM/ OVER ERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTANT 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

OVER TX...A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER CAP ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEPTH AND RESULTING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. BY TONIGHT...THE CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF
SURFACE FRONT /OWING TO DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ/ WILL FOSTER
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EWD TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER COAST. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND 40-50 KT OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CAP WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AT THE
BASE OF THE EML. THUS...DESPITE A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AND
INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL AFTER 09/12Z.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the HPC QPF Forecast Discussions for the next 3 days...pertinent information is bolded...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
456 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2012


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 08/1200 UTC THRU JAN 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1...

NM...SWRN/CNTRL TO S TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE HT FALLS
DROPPING SEWD FROM THE GTBASIN INTO THE SWRN U.S. EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THESE HT FALLS INTO A CLOSED
LOW EXPECTED SUN AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM ERN AZ INTO FAR SWRN
TX. STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WL SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ACRS LARGE PORTIONS OF NM. PCPN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE DAY 1 OVR SWRN TX AS UVVS STRENGTHEN HERE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS. IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSING OFF MID TO UPR
LEVEL CNTR OVR SWRN TX...THE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO WL BE STRENGTHENING SUNDAY. THIS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING PW VALUES TO 1 STD ABOVE THE MEAN WL SUPPORT A
BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS LARGE SECTIONS OF CNTRL TO S
TX...EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NAM AND 4KM NAM CONUS
NEST WERE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE QPF AXIS THAN THE
GFS...ECMWF AND SREF MEAN. DAY 1 QPF FAVORED THE FARTHER SWD
MAJORITY MODEL SOLN...WITH .25-.50"+ AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED.

LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

PRIOR TO THE BREAKOUT OF PCPN OVR THE SRN PLAINS...SHRTWV ENERGY
MOVG ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WL CONT TO ENHANCE UVVS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO REMAIN STNRY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE AVG PW VALUES ALONG THIS BNDRY WL
SUPPORT CONTINUED SCT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WITH
MDT PCPN AMTS OF .25-50"+ POSSIBLE.

PAC NW...

NERN PAC HT FALLS WL BEGIN TO ERODE THE AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE OVR
THE NWRN U.S. WITH THE ASSOC FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING TOWARD THE PAC
NW COAST BY LATE DAY 1. THE STRONG UVVS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. CAN BORDER RECENTLY ACRS
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WRN B.C. WL SINK SWD INTO COASTAL WA LATE DAY
1...WITH .50"+ PCPN AMTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF DAY 1 ACRS THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

UPR LAKES...

WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG EWD ACRS CNTRL ONTARIO WL SUPPORT WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY DAY 1 AND TOWARD
THE ONTARIO/QB SUN EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS
FOR THE U.P. OF MI INTO THE FAR NRN L.P. OF MI.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

A SPLIT FLOW MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NW IN TWO
WAVES ON MON AND TUES... AS ASSOCIATED THERMAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
SWEEPS THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE SINKING SOUTH
INTO THE GRT BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE INITIAL SURGE OF
UPPER DYNAMICS MORE RELATED TO THE NRN STREAM WILL ADVECT OR
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MON. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
THE MAIN PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WRN CANADA BUT ENOUGH LIFT
AND ONSHORE FLOW FOR LIGHT TO MDT QPF AMOUNTS INTO COASTAL WA AND
THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES. THEN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE...POS TILTED NRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG THROUGH THE
NRN/CEN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE NWRN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...MEANING
MUCH OF THE QPF WILL BE DRIVEN OROGRAPHICALLY ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO PLAINS. THE ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS (UPR DVRGNCE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW-MID LVL QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND 2D FGEN) WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH LIQ EQUIV PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CEN
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.


...SRN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
IN PLAY EARLY TO MID WEEK...AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND
SPEED (TIMING) OF THE SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW. HPC AGAIN FAVORED A
NON NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC...WHICH DO NOT TAKE
THE LOW (AND ASSCD MSTR FIELD) AS FAR TO THE N.


MON/MON NIGHT...STRENGTHENING UPPER JET (~130KT AT 300 MB)
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE THE UPPER LEVEL
DVRGNCE AND ASSCD S TO N LLVL AGEOS RESPONSE ACROSS THE WRN GULF
COAST (SE TX/SW LA). STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LLVL
MSTR TRANSPORT FROM THE GOMEX...WHILE SW MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION AS THE WCB PROVIDES DEEP MSTR
AVAILABILITY (NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES) THROUGH 300/250 MB
DURING THIS TIME. PWATS CLIMB TO ~1.5" AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE
FVRBL DYNAMICAL FORCING AND PCPN EFFICIENCY PROFILE...WILL AGAIN
ADVERTISE A REGION OF 2+" OF RAINFALL NEAR THE SE TX/SW LA COAST
MON/MON NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS (MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH A
DEEP/THIN DISTRIBUTION OF CAPE). CONVECTIVE PTNTL WILL ALSO HELP
TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FARTHER S COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
NAM/GFS TRENDS. FARTHER E...PCPN AXIS WILL STRETCH TO THE MID
ATLC...AIDED BY THE ELONGATED WCB AND DEEPENING WAA/MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AREAS ALONG AND OFF THE
MID ATLC GET FURTHER ENHANCEMENT (LOW-MID LVL FGEN) VIA THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS PTNS OF THE LOWER TN VLY TO THE LOWE MID ATLC
REGION WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP A BIT LATE IN THIS PERIOD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE CONFLUENT PROFILE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
JET FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE TROUGH BASE ALSO LOSES A
BIT OF STEAM. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE GOMEX WIDE OPEN WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE PTN
OF THE LOWER TN VLY...AGAIN AIDED BY THE CONVECTIVE PTNL...WHICH
AGAIN WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAIN FARTHER S COMPARED TO
SOME OF THE MODELS (NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR).

[srainhoutx]

For those looking ahead to later in the week/next Saturday, the 06Z DGEX (often used for pattern recognition along with the Euro) does suggests a slower transition of the next U/L and a coastal trough developing and some over running precip with cold air in place. We will see...

[Portastorm]

I like that map! How about a collegiate hockey Winter Classic at DKR Memorial Stadium between the Longhorns and Aggies?!

[skidog38]

intellicast has 20% snow for katy saturday

[srainhoutx]

For those looking ahead to later in the week/next Saturday, the 06Z DGEX (often used for pattern recognition along with the Euro) does suggests a slower transition of the next U/L and a coastal trough developing and some over running precip with cold air in place. We will see...

I don't think DGEX and "often used" would ever be used in a sentence again. I saw a NWS met on another forum once explain the DGEX could be used to populate grids in a mountainous CWA because of the better resolution, and I'd always wonder, even if a model has 1 inch resolution, how it could be useful when it was usually out to lunch

I' myself will be checking the globals after church to see if we see something like last nights Canadian, which would bring such joy as close as the NW Houston Metro.

Oh really? From FWD this morning...

THE
ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX SOLUTIONS CUT THE UPPER LOW OFF FROM THE MEAN
FLOW AND DO NOT BRING IT ACROSS TEXAS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE DRIER AND SLOWER ECMWF AND
DGEX SOLUTIONS BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS SINCE IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE SOME IMPACTS LATE IN THE WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is running and suggests heavy snow near Midland/Odessa with even a chance of thundersnow and heavy rains/elevated storms developing as the Coastal Low forms near Corpus and treks NE along the Coast...

01082012 12Z GFS f36.gif

01082012 12Z GFS f42.gif

01082012 12Z GFS f48.gif

[redneckweather]

wxman said: Neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates any freezes here through 16 days. If you want to see snow, head to far west TX or the panhandle.


I'm thinking you are talking about next weekend as well, correct?

[srainhoutx]

The GFS has trended a bit further S with the upper low track which is what the Euro and Canadian had been suggesting. Also note the U/L to our W off California now as the Euro solution has been suggesting and the strong Canadian front diving S into the Plains as a potent Winter Storm develops in the northern stream near the Great Lakes...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Where is the bullseye for the heaviest rain in the HOU metro?