January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[Katdaddy]

Buffalo Bayou looks to be at flood stage (perhaps slightly above flood stage) in downtown Houston

[srainhoutx]

A brief update for the 12Z Euro solution. Flip flop go the models. Euro holds the U/L offshore until next Monday. Little confidence with any guidance at this range as we have seen since December. Back to the weather at hand...

[niner21]

So is the rain done??? It looks to be toast here up near Willis....

[jasons2k]

For the most part, the heavy rain is concentrated along and south of the front, which is approaching the coast now. However, there are still some showers to the west and southwest that will move across before the final dry slot pushes into the area later this afternoon. The showers won't be nearly as heavy or widespread as this morning, but they do have the potential for locally heavy downpours.

[wxman57]

My mother reports 6.1" at our house in Westbury as of an hour ago.

[redneckweather]

Just heard from the wife and with the latest passing down pour, it put us just a hair over 3 inches just south of Lake Conroe Dam.

[srainhoutx]

Another brief update regarding later in the week. The HPC is basically leaving things as is. With so much variability and spread in the operational and ensembles, a cautious approach will be the theme today. The biggest difference is how all guidance handles the U/L on Thursday. The HPC believes a Gulf of California solution is better, but suggests it will eject multiple short waves across Texas. The cold front is still on schedule for early Thursday morning and a bit deeper long wave trough is expected across the Plains/Upper Mid West. Over running conditions appear likely as we head into the weekend. Stay Tuned!

[JackCruz]

A brief update for the 12Z Euro solution. Flip flop go the models. Euro holds the U/L offshore until next Monday. Little confidence with any guidance at this range as we have seen since December. Back to the weather at hand...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Excessive training thunderstorms that have produced 4-6 inches of rainfall over parts of the area today are moving toward the coast and offshore.

Tremendous amounts of run-off are in progress across the area with bayous nearing bankfull in southwestern Harris and parts of Fort Bend counties. Ending of heavy rainfall should allow ongoing street flooding to drain off with watersheds starting to crest and fall in the next few hours. Brays Bayou was especially hard hit with 4-6 inches widespread across the entire watersheds leading to very high flow along this channel through the Texas Medical Center http://fas3.flood-alert.org/#Cameras:Large%20Scale (Camera view of the Harris Gully outfall in Brays Bayou at TMC). Bayou has breached its banks downstream of SH 288 and is 3 ft overbanks at Lawndale.

Additional light rainfall will be possible through the afternoon hours, but the excessive rainfall is over. Severe threat will be ended shortly as small warm sector is pushed off shore ending the tornado threat.

Numerous severe reports have been reported today from possible tornadoes in Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties along with widespread street flooding resulting in stranded vehicles and high water rescues. Will compile a storm report Tuesday morning once reports are in.

Water levels in Harris County Bayous can be view at this website:
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[wxman57]

My house is JUST SE of that 6.32" reading on the map above. Probably 6.25" at home today. There was only a trace of rain at home when I left for work at 6:30am. Models are all over the place for next weekend. Euro and Canadian are generally dry, GFS quite wet next Sat/Sun. Will have to wait until Wed/Thu for a good model consensus to develop, most likely. I think I've seen enough rain for a while.

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm not a damage survey guy, but I can tell by this pic that this tornado was probably in the EF-1 category....maybe stronger.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/gallery?sec ... 2&photo=25

[Big O]

Some mets and well thought of amateurs on another message board are suggesting that the only winner (at least for the foreseeable future) of the -WPO, -AO will be Canada. While there is cross-polar flow, they argue that there is no mechanism to dislodge that air into the southern Plains, or much of the US for that matter. In fact, they point to the 240h European, which they claim depicts a Pacific firehouse jet (i.e., zonal flow) across the US.

I was informed that we need both west and east blocking to force the arctic air southward. However, another well-respected met told me you can't have both east and west blocking. I'm at a loss and am really frustrated with the lack of wintry weather. Someone talk me off the ledge.

[srainhoutx]

We'll be fine, Big O. No bridge jumping will be needed...

[biggerbyte]

Big O, imagine taking an empty bucket and a water hose. The bucket is set up so that the more it fills up, the more it tilts to one side. The water hose slowly begins to fill up the bucket. Soon enough it is so heavy on that one side that the water is forced out to the ground below, and the bucket turns upside down. Now apply that philosophy to very cold air.

[Ptarmigan]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.05 INCHES WAS SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.54 SET IN 1955.

Over 3 inches less IMBY, but at least no flooding in the neighborhood.

That has to be one of the wettest January day. The wettest is 5.89 inches of rain on January 8, 1891. If 4.05 inches fell at Intercontinental Airport today, it would break the record set on this day in 1984.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_jan

[Ounce]

4 & 5 p.m. broadcast gave a 50% chance of rain for Saturday and Sunday. Too much confidence in the GFS, maybe?

[JackCruz]

We need to get something going Friday night into Saturday (in terms or moisture)

[MESOMAN]

Hey everyone. I have read this forum for years but thought I would sing up hopefully in time for some cold weather. I am fairly knowledgeable with SE TX weather but am not a Met at all. Hope to have some good topics to chat about in the coming months!

[srainhoutx]

Welcome MESOMAN. We're glad that you took the time to register and finally joined us.

[biggerbyte]

Bonjour, Mesoman. Il est bon de vous avoir à bord.