January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z early guidance suggests the Pacific boundary will linger near the Coast. Perhaps some showers develop for Coastal Counties during the weekend...

[srainhoutx]

Well the 00Z guidance was sure interesting. We know no more this morning than we did yesterday. The GFS now has a closed core upper low sitting and spinning S of the Big Bend Region dumping copious rains and storms in the eastern half of Texas while wintry mischief is confined to the cold sector in W Texas and New Mexico. The U/L stalls for 24-36 hours before slowly moving E over E Texas/W Louisiana.

The Canadian has that feature as well, but ejects it slowly N and E a touch faster than the GFS only to be replaced by another U/L in the longer range.

The Euro also suggests a N Mexico/W TX solution, but never fully closes the upper low, yet digs a deep/sharp mid latitude trough that carves S into Texas. All this is near the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Sound familiar?

Needless to say with the run to run changes we are seeing, confidence remains low as it has with these type upper lows all season. It does appear a potent southern stream storm is shaping up near the early week time frame with yet another changeable forecast over the next several days. Stay Tuned as they say. Things may get bumpy around here yet again.

[srainhoutx]

The long range la la land GFS will raise an eyebrow or two. Can we say a 1052mb Arctic high dropping S from Western Canada with a deep Western trough....?....

[Portastorm]

The long range la la land GFS will raise an eyebrow or two. Can we say a 1052mb Arctic high dropping S from Western Canada with a deep Western trough....?....

Wxman57's primo cycling weather may be coming to a close soon ... such a shame too.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to a more significant shot of cold air near the beginning of February. Hopefully, it will only be a brief pattern change and we can get back to the 70s shortly after. Meanwhile, I think I'll make it a 3 day cycling weekend by taking Friday off to enjoy the mid 70s.

[texoz]

First week of February last year was also a very cold shot. Will be interesting to see if it repeats.

[redneckweather]

This board should get to hopping now.

[Ptarmigan]

oh I got a feeling that the TC lid is going to blow off this year. Just a gut thing...

First week of February last year was also a very cold shot. Will be interesting to see if it repeats.

Since we had the heaviest rain since January 18, 1989, which happened on this very day 23 years ago. I would not be surprised if we see a cold blast in February, like in 1989. Prior to the 1989 freeze, Dawson City, Yukon recorded the highest pressure () in North America on February 2, 1989 (1079.6 mb). Also, Alaska recorded its highest pressure on January 31, 1989, highest in America (1078.6 mb). It was really cold that time and occurred in a La Nina winter. That was just days before we got the prolonged freeze of February 1989. I would not be surprised if there are higher pressure that went unrecorded like in February 1895 and 1899. The pressure could go as high as +1100 mb.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weathe ... ntrynum=51

1989 also had two hurricanes and a tropical storm make landfall on Southeast Texas. They were Allison, Chantal, and Jerry.

[Paul]

I find the 12Z GFS rather depressing, personally.

I would agree... so much for model agreement with the 12Z....

[Portastorm]

Besides showing us a map that looks like a 3-year-old drawing on the USA with crayons, what does this tell us, exactly? Are those storm tracks?

[South_Texas_Storms]

I don't know about you guys, but I find the 12z models really depressing. The 0z CMC, Euro and GFS all agreed on around an inch of rain for SA and Austin on next Tuesday and now the 12zs show pretty much nothing. Man I am really depressed now. So much for starting 2012 rainfall on a good note. Sigh.

[wxman57]

Besides showing us a map that looks like a 3-year-old drawing on the USA with crayons, what does this tell us, exactly? Are those storm tracks?

Yes, they're different storm tracks from the 20 GFS ensemble members. If they were in agreement, then the lines would be quite close to each other and we'd see just a couple of tracks. Currently, each member appears to have a quite different solution at 10 days. Doesn't give me much confidence in the extended operational GFS.

[Portastorm]

Thanks wxman57 and Ed. Given what Ed posted, it's easy to have little-to-no confidence in the GFS out in la-la land. Still, it's nice to look at. Guess we'll all need to wait until we're 240 hours and closer to see what the Euro and Crazy Canadian suggest. I also see some touting the UKMet's prowess, but that only goes out to 144 hours publicly, I think.

[Big O]

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15 ... an240h.gif

This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern."

[Big O]

Now, we just need a +PNA/-EPO signal, and we may be in business.

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't fret over the lack of model agreement next week, particularly the GFS. As we have witnessed too many times since November the guidance suffers greatly with these upper lows. Anything beyond three days is a 'best guess', IMO. There remains way too much uncertainty regarding the northern stream impulses (short waves) and southern stream cut offs.

01182012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

01182012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

01182012 18Z 5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Those are some beautiful model runs!

[wxman57]

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15 ... an240h.gif

This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern."

I saw that, but what the image doesn't show you is what's coming in from the west. I'm looking at a hemispheric 500mb heights loop of the 12Z Euro. There's a very deep low just off the map that is starting to suppress the ridge at 240 hrs. Ridge is weakening as the trof moves in at 240 hrs.

[Big O]

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15 ... an240h.gif

This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern."

I saw that, but what the image doesn't show you is what's coming in from the west. I'm looking at a hemispheric 500mb heights loop of the 12Z Euro. There's a very deep low just off the map that is starting to suppress the ridge at 240 hrs. Ridge is weakening as the trof moves in at 240 hrs.

I am by no means a met and you have forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know. However, wouldn't the the low to the west of Alaska help shift the north Pacific ridge further east toward and eventually strattling the west coast? In fact, at 240h the mean trough is too far west to deliver any arctic air to anyone but the western US, but if that low pressure area moving in from west of Alaska can shift the north Pacific ridge further east, the mean trough may set up right across the central US, and perhaps give us something close to a McFarlane Signature beyond 240 hours as Ed has suggested. I know I'm grasping, but I'm trying to look on the bright side ("glass half full" as Ed says).

Of course, the model will probably not verify, but it sure is nice to dream.

[djmike]

I just found out about the MAJOR arctic blast that hit Houston/SE Texas in 1895. I'd love to see those forecast's and maps from way back when. 20" of snow for Houston/Beaumont? Low of 6-11 degrees? WOW! Many rivers and lakes were frozen solid and people were ice skating across the Sabine river to Louisiana...WOW.

Anyone know of a good site that explains what happened or has weather maps or anything from this time period on this subject?

Sorry, I know it's off topic...