January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has joined the GFS suggesting a deep West Coast trough developing with impressive heights rising into Alaska in the longer range...

[Big O]

12z GFS Ensemble Mean at 384h sure is appetizing to cold-weather lovers; McFarland Signature anyone:

[Big O]

Here's a different look:

[Andrew]

Here's a different look:

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/2407 ... 12zgfs.gif

Who would have guessed the GFS ensembles would be so confused in the long range.

I am really impressed with the intensity of the ULL for next week though. What an impressive size and intensity that the CMC and Euro are showing. While many have mentioned that fine tuning is still needed on the track and intensity there are indications that next week could have some very interesting weather. It should also be noted we need to watch the progression of the ULL especially if it decides to slow down/ stall out like some of the models have been indicating. With such a progressive pattern though that might be hard to come by.

Towards the long range though it seems like the GFS and Euro are starting to catch on to the fact that a strong "dump" of cold air could occur towards the beginning of February. Unlike the event earlier in the month this cold event should have plenty of cold air to work with. That will be something to look at when it gets closer and we can actually get a better resolution of it from the models.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Record Snow in Japan....

http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/news_ ... japan.html

[sambucol]

Here's a different look:

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/2407 ... 12zgfs.gif

Who would have guessed the GFS ensembles would be so confused in the long range.

I am really impressed with the intensity of the ULL for next week though. What an impressive size and intensity that the CMC and Euro are showing. While many have mentioned that fine tuning is still needed on the track and intensity there are indications that next week could have some very interesting weather. It should also be noted we need to watch the progression of the ULL especially if it decides to slow down/ stall out like some of the models have been indicating. With such a progressive pattern though that might be hard to come by.

Towards the long range though it seems like the GFS and Euro are starting to catch on to the fact that a strong "dump" of cold air could occur towards the beginning of February. Unlike the event earlier in the month this cold event should have plenty of cold air to work with. That will be something to look at when it gets closer and we can actually get a better resolution of it from the models.

Is it looking like we are going to get some really cold air with perhaps some wintry precip?

[wxman57]

Is it looking like we are going to get some really cold air with perhaps some wintry precip?

Depends on how you define "really cold air". Even the models predicting the cold will come down are only forecast our temps to be a little below normal in TX (-2F below). But the models are all over the place each run, so you cannot trust them beyond a few days. There IS some colder air in Canada now, something that wasn't present a week ago. But that cold air is on its way out. GFS has temps in western Canada 15F-20F above normal in 7 days, followed by additional cooling to 20F-30F below normal in another 7 days. Beyond then, it's indicating warming.

Given the cold air presently in Canada (and in the forecast down the road), but considering the relative lack of snow cover to our north, there is a good chance of freezing conditions in SE TX during the first week of February. I'd expect temps closer to the upper 20s than lower 20s in this situation. There are no indications of any precip in the cold air, but consider that the models can't pick up on these short waves well even 4-5 days out, so there's always a chance of a passing disturbance in the cold air.

Back to warm-mongering...

[tireman4]

Speaking of warm-mongering, how far are you riding tomorrow Wxman?

[wxman57]

Speaking of warm-mongering, how far are you riding tomorrow Wxman?

Depends on whether my wife rides with me. May head downtown (16 miles) to Discovery Green and watch the water skating (melting ice rink) then back to Rice Villiage to eat dinner at Ruggle's cafe then back home (34 miles or so). Longer ride on Saturday, as we may head across town to Buffalo Bayou then north to the Heights trail. When I go by myself, I go up to 50-60 miles, but I don't do that when it's cold. That's all on my dual-suspension mountain bike so that I don't have to stay on the pavement. Good hills along the banks of Buffalo Bayou.

Weather-wise, the weekend looks good with the exception of some dense fog Sat/Sun mornings a good possibility.

[wxman57]

I mentioned this ~5 pages back, but energy sector mets are the best paid, so I'd assume among the best, and natural gas futures are down near $2.30...

My co-worker is buying natural gas futures now.

[Big O]

I mentioned this ~5 pages back, but energy sector mets are the best paid, so I'd assume among the best, and natural gas futures are down near $2.30...

My co-worker is buying natural gas futures now.

I assume this means he thinks that cold air is lurking on the horizon, but I could be wrong. I have no earthly idea of how natural gas futures work. Buy low (now) and let price go high (cold air returns)?

[Ptarmigan]

Depends on how you define "really cold air". Even the models predicting the cold will come down are only forecast our temps to be a little below normal in TX (-2F below). But the models are all over the place each run, so you cannot trust them beyond a few days. There IS some colder air in Canada now, something that wasn't present a week ago. But that cold air is on its way out. GFS has temps in western Canada 15F-20F above normal in 7 days, followed by additional cooling to 20F-30F below normal in another 7 days. Beyond then, it's indicating warming.

Given the cold air presently in Canada (and in the forecast down the road), but considering the relative lack of snow cover to our north, there is a good chance of freezing conditions in SE TX during the first week of February. I'd expect temps closer to the upper 20s than lower 20s in this situation. There are no indications of any precip in the cold air, but consider that the models can't pick up on these short waves well even 4-5 days out, so there's always a chance of a passing disturbance in the cold air.

Back to warm-mongering...

It's winter and it is suppose to be cold.

[srainhoutx]

Well, a different GFS run and a different solution. The 18Z off hour output, which did pick up on the cut off solution first, by the way now suggests the U/L will stall briefly over W/Central TX before ejecting E. That type of solution would not bode well for those hoping for a less severe weather event. Confidence has grown today that some significant severe weather could be expect across the area and Texas as well as point N and E. We may well have to pay the piper for the warm weather expected over the weekend into early next week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Love it! If we can't have cold and snow, I hope we flood this town out every day for the next few weeks

[txflagwaver]

Rain yes...flood no

[tireman4]

Speaking of warm-mongering, how far are you riding tomorrow Wxman?

Depends on whether my wife rides with me. May head downtown (16 miles) to Discovery Green and watch the water skating (melting ice rink) then back to Rice Villiage to eat dinner at Ruggle's cafe then back home (34 miles or so). Longer ride on Saturday, as we may head across town to Buffalo Bayou then north to the Heights trail. When I go by myself, I go up to 50-60 miles, but I don't do that when it's cold. That's all on my dual-suspension mountain bike so that I don't have to stay on the pavement. Good hills along the banks of Buffalo Bayou.

For me, the usual fare, running 7 miles each day at a 7:30 pace and hoping the heat does not kill me. I just hope it will be a little drier this weekend so the humidity is not so bad.

[JackCruz]

Just to think long longggggg ago we once had 20 inches of snow here in Houston ....ahhhhh..good old days.

What's the record low for Houston?

[tireman4]

5 degrees I think

[JackCruz]

5 degrees I think

I bet it felt well below 0 degrees though..... stunning weather

[jasons2k]

It's winter and it is suppose to be cold.

Yeah...but we live in Houston, not Helena

I hope the only snow I see this year is up in Angel Fire. As for the storms - bring it!

Signed,
Warm Mongerer